During Energy Days 2023 at Fornebu today, Norway’s Directorate of Water Resources and Energy (NVE) announced that they believe that the price of power in Norway will average around 80 øre/kWh in 2030. – This is based on an expectation of high gas and CO2 prices and a weaker Norwegian power balance, says watercourses and energy director Kjetil Lund. 80 øre/kWh is more than double what was usual in the period up to 2021. Two years ago, NVE thought that the average power price would be 52 øre per kilowatt hour in 2030. NVE Director Kjetil Lund accompanied by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Energy Minister Terje Aasland. Photo: Terje Pedersen / NTB The prices will approach the European ones In the new power market analysis, the directorate writes that the power surplus will decrease and that the Norwegian prices will approach the European ones. – A weaker power balance means more imports of power, and then high electricity prices in the countries around us will push Norwegian electricity prices up, Lund said at the presentation. He added: – We will probably have both periods of very high prices and periods of price collapse. The NVE analysis harmonizes with the messages in McKinsey’s new energy report “Norway tomorrow”, which says that Norway risks higher electricity prices if we do not create “a road map out of the energy crisis”. In the report, the company launches a proposal for a “healthy compromise” that takes into account conflicting interests linked to nature, its own industry and power exports. These are the most important recommendations: Investment in offshore wind and increased focus on fixed-bottom technology in the initial phase. Offshore wind is connected directly to the continent through the establishment of new hybrid cables Upgrades and new development of land-based wind power. A total of around 40 TWh in 2040. Utilize the remaining potential in existing hydropower, and more solar power on roofs. The Energy Commission announced earlier this year that Norway should have “at least 40 TWh” of new power by 2030, but did not agree on how big a target should be placed on the “jewel”, i.e. hydropower. In NVE’s analysis, power consumption in Norway increases to 191 TWh in 2040, an increase of 40 per cent from today’s level. The analysis is based on “major investments in batteries and hydrogen production”. Photo: Tore Meek / NTB – Not sure that everyone has realized how serious it is – We have had some taste of what a power deficit will mean when there have been periods when Norwegian power prices have been almost as high as in the rest of Europe , says senior partner in McKinsey, Christer Tryggestad. He adds: – I am not sure that everyone has realized how serious it is that we are heading for a permanent situation with a power deficit. Earlier in October, the Danish authorities launched twelve initiatives to quadruple the development of onshore wind by 2030. The method is to rotate the financial means so that more of the value creation goes to the local communities and the host municipalities that have to give up the area. A new report from Menon Economics shows that Norwegian ports investing in offshore wind can employ around 6,400 people in 2030. The report was commissioned by Norwegian Offshore Wind, Eksfin, Invest in Rogaland, Invest in Bergen and Invest in Agder. Photo: Håkon Mosvold Larsen / NTB – How much we choose to expand will mean a lot for the electricity price According to the new NVE analysis, more power development will help to reduce prices in the future. They expect growth in solar power and wind power on land, but believe that offshore wind will account for the greatest growth in power production. Høgre has calculated that the start of production for offshore wind will at best be in 2034 or 2035. The estimate is based on the process the government itself lays as a basis in the proposal for state support for Southern North Sea II. Oil and Energy Minister Terje Aasland, for his part, has stated that he believes several offshore wind farms will be in operation in Norway by 2030. – How much power we choose to develop in Norway will mean a lot for the price of electricity. Increased power production and more energy efficiency will contribute to lower electricity prices, says NVE director Lund.
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NVE expects expensive electricity – news Vestland
