– We believe that things have changed too quickly, also with regard to finances, says director at NTNU Havrom, Siri Granum Carson. Before the summer, the government announced that it wants to open up exploration and extraction of minerals from the seabed in Norway. “There are great potential values for society”, says the report to the Storting. Both the oil and the farming industry today pay an extra tax because they make money from the community’s resources. But in the government’s plan it is stated that they will not introduce ground rent tax yet. Previous calculations suggest that the minerals may have a value of NOK 1,000 billion. But the number is very uncertain. Don’t know if it will be profitable – Once the cards are laid, it can be difficult to change afterwards, says Granum Carson at NTNU. – What do you think is the reason why they are hesitating to introduce this tax now? – Honestly, I think it is because there is quite a lot in this process that has not been fully thought through, says the director at NTNU. The government’s work with seabed minerals has received harsh criticism from both research institutions and the environmental movement. Several believe we do not know enough about the consequences to start an exploration process. Siri Granum Carson, director at NTNU Havrom. Photo: Eva H. Murvold / – It is difficult to imagine how this will turn out. There is so much uncertainty surrounding the possibility of a future profitable and environmentally responsible industry. That makes it difficult to regulate the economy now, says Granum Carson. That uncertainty is also described by the government itself: “Even if there are significant resources on the seabed in Norway, this does not mean that these are necessarily profitable resources”, the report to the Storting states. This makes it difficult to calculate what Norway will get out of this in terms of kroner and jobs. There are also no full-scale projects worldwide today that are profitable, therefore Norway cannot obtain such figures or experience from other places. At the weekend, news told about the two robots Ægir and Seabed Excavator. The latter is an excavator that can drill into the seabed. The companies that own it have received support from Grønn Plattform, which focuses on green transformation in the business world with the help of research and innovation. – Belongs to the community – The companies extract resources that belong to the community. It is then natural that they pay for it, and preferably in the form of a ground rent tax. A ground rent tax is also a more effective form of tax than many other taxes, says economics professor Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe at the University of Oslo Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe, professor at the Department of Economics at the University of Oslo. Photo: Gorm Kallestad / NTB She explains that companies need predictability. The state, for its part, wants to ensure that it does not indirectly subsidize something that does not come to fruition, and will therefore typically want to wait until the industry makes money before introducing a ground rent tax. – I hope that the politicians have learned that it is not wise to wait too long. It undermines the legitimacy linked to the introduction of the tax, and makes it more complicated in practical terms. It is easier to get support if you don’t wait too long. Can scare away investors – Making changes afterwards creates noise, says Linda Nøstbakken, social economist and director of research at Statistics Norway (SSB). Linda Nøstbakken, social economist and director of research at Statistics Norway. Photo: Ronny Nøstbakken She believes that the introduction of ground rent tax for the farming industry shows this. Because the seabed minerals are common property and a limited resource, this implies that a ground rent tax should be introduced if extraordinary profitability is expected, she believes. Without ground rent tax, the companies will take the entire cost at the start, but may risk having to share the upside with the state if it is a success, she explains. – It will weaken the actors’ motivation to invest, says Nøstbakken. This means that the companies that want to look for minerals must bear the risk. Norway can introduce higher taxes and demand a piece of the pie if they see that this pays off in the long run. – It will be disproportionate and create uncertainty among investors, she says. Although the companies bear the risk financially, they share the environmental risk with all of us, she points out. – It requires a good system to assess this. That you ensure that it does not cost more than it tastes, says the research director. Want to know as early as possible – If you choose to introduce a ground rent tax at a later stage, after large investments have already been incurred, good transition arrangements will be crucial, says chief economist at Offshore Norway, Marius Menth Andersen. Marius Menth Andersen, chief economist at Offshore Norway. Photo: Offshore Norway They think it is good and important that the government now wants an opening, especially to find out more about the resources and the environmental consequences before any extraction. – That is why this step is so important, says Andersen. – We are going to emphasize to the government that we want to clarify the framework conditions, such as the issue of ground rent tax, as early as possible, says the chief economist. news has contacted the Ministry of Finance, they have no comment on the matter.
ttn-69
– Not thought through – news – Klima
