– We expect that the power surplus we have had in Northern Norway will disappear and rather move towards a deficit. That’s what CEO of Troms Kraft, Semming Semmingsen, says, referring to a survey carried out by Sintef. The survey estimates that the power surplus in the north will be used up in 2030. In one scenario, this could happen as early as 2027. Semmingsen believes that it will affect the wallets of those who live in the north more than those who live in the south. – Poor transmission capacity between north and south has meant that we have had very low electricity prices. But if we get a deficit of power, this will have the opposite effect, he says. CEO of Troms Kraft, Semming Semmingsen, believes it is urgent to increase power production and improve transmission capacity. Photo: Hanne Wilhelms / news The power chief does not think prices will be as high as in the extreme year 2022. – But I still think we should take seriously the fact that we end up in a situation where we get too little power. Then you will be able to get very high prices in periods. Semmingsen refers to Sintef’s analysis, which estimates that the average price of electricity could go from about 25 øre to 60 øre per kilowatt hour in northern Norway up to 2030. Believing it is urgent, Semmingsen also believes that it will have major consequences for the business world, which will have to adapt to a new green reality, and prevent new establishments. – It will set Northern Norway back in relation to the rest of the country, that is my big concern. That is why it is so important that we get started on developing more power production in the north, he says. – And it is urgent. Semmingsen believes that Northern Norway has great potential for developing more wind power on land, but is aware that it is challenging without disrupting the reindeer herding industry. – It is Northern Norway’s most important cultural industry, and you have to respect that, he says. National power deficit in 2027 In November 2022, Statnett published a short-term market analysis. There they estimate a significant increase in power consumption in Norway in the coming years. This could lead to a national power deficit in 2027. – The industry of the future needs a lot of power. We see that the plans for establishing new industry and electrification are getting bigger and more concrete. This challenges the grid, but also requires access to new power generation. We will build networks for between 60 and 100 billion until 2030, and we need to speed up the development of power production, says CEO Hilde Tonne of Statnett in a press release. In 2022, we used 134 TWh in Norway. Statnett estimates that we will use 24 TWh more in 2027. But estimates that production will only increase by 6 TWh. Towards 2050, they are making plans for us to be able to use twice as much, but this requires, among other things, that Norway takes the lead in the development of electricity production from offshore wind. – The coming growth in consumption is a consequence of us meeting our climate goals and commitments, existing businesses to be electrified and new green industry to be established. The question now is not whether we are entering a period of large growth in electricity consumption, but how big the growth will be and how Norway will safeguard its competitive advantages, says Tonne. Statnett’s four scenarios for development towards 2050: Basis: This scenario is what we consider to be our best assumption given what we know today. In Basis, power consumption increases by 80 TWh to 220 TWh until 2050. The scenario covers the transition to zero emissions in Norway and significant industrial growth, but is dependent on at least 50 TWh of new production. A large part of this must realistically be offshore wind. Low: In total, power consumption increases by 50 TWh to 190 TWh until 2050 in this scenario. Little new power generation is built, and this limits consumption growth. The scenario also presupposes more ENØK, which results in a greater decrease in general consumption, and stronger political control of consumption growth is otherwise necessary. High and Very high: What these scenarios have in common is the development of competitive floating offshore wind as a central driver for much higher consumption growth from new green industry. In the High scenario, we assume growth in consumption up to 260 TWh in 2050, while in Extra high we expect a consumption development of up to 300 TWh in the period. Source: Statnett.no Fears development in the north will stop The CEO of Troms Kraft is worried that Northern Norway will be left behind in the development of power production in the coming years. – I think the state is going to use a lot of funds to get offshore wind built in the south, and we must not end up in the same situation as when the oil industry was developed: That everything ends up in the south, and then Northern Norway comes 15–20 years behind in development, says Semmingsen. – Then we end up in a situation where we get too little electricity in the north, and the establishments take place in the south; and we end up in back homework. He is also clear that the politicians must dare to facilitate more development of wind power on land. – They have to take hold and be able to weather the storm. We know that there is great opposition to developing more wind power, but I think it is absolutely necessary, says Semmingsen. – Otherwise, the development we can get and want for the region will come to a halt. – We must also look at energy efficiency. Head of the energy and environment committee at the Storting, Marianne Sivertsen Næss (Ap), points out that they are embarking on an ambitious investment in offshore wind. She is concerned that this should be implemented along the entire Norwegian coast. – Work is being done from several quarters to find suitable land. It is then important to ensure coexistence with the fishing industry, which is a pillar of activity along the entire Norwegian coast – and especially in the north, says Næss. Storting representative from Finnmark and head of the energy and environment committee at the Storting, Marianne Sivertsen Næss (Ap), is concerned with energy efficiency. Photo: Allan Klo In addition, she believes that provision must be made for other types of renewable power production, such as onshore wind and solar power. – We must also look at energy efficiency, so that we can use the electricity we already have in a more efficient way, says Næss.
ttn-69
Norway is heading towards a power deficit in 2027 – worst for electricity customers in the north – news Troms and Finnmark
