The Gaza border in the early afternoon on Friday: An oppressive silence hangs over the area, a silence punctuated by a pair of powerful artillery booms and a fighter jet racing across the sky. Military vehicles speeding here and there. Blocked roads. Soldiers guarding the site where hundreds of civilians at a music festival were killed. There are few signs of a ceasefire in the border areas, but there is also no frenetic activity that could point to an immediate offensive. The vantage point That is as far as foreign journalists go. Neither Israel nor Egypt will let us in, and we are forced to view Gaza from the Israeli side of the border. I myself glimpsed the devastation in Beit Hanoun, a small town I have visited many times, both in peace and in previous wars. View of Beit Hanoun. Photo: Sigurd Falkenberg Mikkelsen / news From where I stood, up on a small hill, it looked like it had been leveled to the ground. At the same time as the warfare and civilian suffering continue, international diplomacy has gone into high gear in recent weeks to bring about a long-term ceasefire. Different realities The basic idea is that Hamas will release the Israeli hostages in several stages in return for the weapons to fall silent for six weeks and for emergency aid to arrive. This has been worked on at the highest level from the USA and the regional heavyweights Egypt and Saudi Arabia, in addition to Qatar. The answer is unfortunately yes. There are several reasons for that. The main problem seems to be that Hamas and Israel are reading different realities into the ceasefire proposal. Israel wants a temporary halt in the fighting to be able to resume the fighting at a later date. In Gaza, the destruction is great as a result of Israel’s war with Hamas. Photo: AFP They do not want Hamas to ever be able to take control of Gaza again and thus be able to repeat October 7. Hamas sees the ceasefire as an opportunity to get a final stop to the war without the organization being completely destroyed. The Israeli hostages are a certain guarantee that Israel will not start the war again when it is all over. Does Bibi want an end to the war? In addition, there are a whole series of bigger and smaller challenges. There is open speculation as to whether Benjamin Netanyahu actually wants an end to the war. It could mean the end of his political career and possibly end with a corruption conviction. Sigurd Falkenberg Mikkelsen on the border with Gaza. Photo: Sigurd Falkenberg Mikkelsen / news Who really decides in Hamas? Those who sit with the political power in exile or those who are now fighting for their lives inside the tunnels under Gaza? Do the neighboring Arab countries really want an Islamist movement to appear victorious in a major war with Israel? Is it really possible to trust Hamas after the October 7 attacks? There are many speculations and questions. There is always a good reason not to put the weapons away, always an opportunity to both explain and explain away. Perhaps it is rather the case that this time the parties cannot get away from the core of the conflict, i.e. a proper peace solution. A humiliation for the world to see the US Secretary of State bring such a perspective to Israel this week. He came here straight from a tour of the Arab world. US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken. Photo: AFP At a press conference, he spoke both about Israel not having to dehumanize the Palestinians as they themselves were dehumanized on 7 October. Then he presented a long-term solution. He envisioned a world in which Israel was a recognized part of the Middle East, with neighbors and partners who recognize each other and give each other security guarantees. The price Israel must pay is that a Palestinian state is established in the Palestinian territories. Hamas and other Palestinian movements must give up any ambitions to take over all of historic Palestine. Shortly after Blinken finished his press conference, his host, Prime Minister Netanyahu, released a video promising total victory and saying that Israeli soldiers would soon be sent to Rafah. There are one and a half million refugees. How much should they withstand? The issue must begin to be seriously pressed in Washington soon. However, that does not mean that all doors are closed. A brutal meeting The diplomatic processes are still ongoing to see if it is possible to agree on a framework for a ceasefire. Among other things, there have been meetings in Cairo. The CIA chief is also expected in the Egyptian capital. When the top people go on a trip, it means that there are opportunities. For all those who hoped for a halt in the fighting, the release of hostages and more emergency aid to civilians, this week has nevertheless been a brutal encounter with political reality. Right now it rather seems as if the war is entering yet another new phase with a possible ground war in Rafah. Should that happen, the screams in there might be loud enough to pierce the silence on the other side of the border.
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No ceasefire in sight – Statement
