Ola Nordmann is hardly aware of it, but Nigeria is the world’s fastest growing superpower. By 2050, they will have overtaken the United States and become the world’s third most populous country. Such population growth could mean opportunities and development. But for Nigeria, it is not quite like that now. The country’s economy is unable to keep pace with population growth. In 2023, unemployment is expected to grow to a whopping 37 per cent. Many Nigerians dream of leaving their homeland and seeking closure elsewhere. For Nigeria, a country where the arrows should soon turn. The economy is in decline, while crime, violence and kidnappings are happening more and more. Economy and security are the two big issues when Africa’s most populous country goes to the polls today. A clasped hand in the air marks resistance to police violence. Photo: Vegard Tjørhom / news In this article you can read about: – Working life is just one big chaos. Lots of newly graduated young people can’t get a job. Those who are lucky get too little work. Most of my friends have had to try to create their own jobs, says Udodiri Onuoma to news. On the stage in front of Onuoma and her friends is Peter Obi. He is the man who right now is the answer to Onuoma’s problems. Obi is riding a wave of discontent, and he may be able to ride that wave all the way to his goal: to become Nigeria’s next president. – We can no longer have these old people wasting our time. That is why we must have leaders who were born after independence. Those born before independence can go home and rest. Then the rest of us can build our country, says Obi from the stage. Peter Obi, left, is not a young man, yet popular with many young people. Photo: Vegard Tjørhom / news The 61-year-old is not exactly a young person himself, and was born barely ten months after independence. Nevertheless, he manages to capture many young people with his rhetoric. Afrobarometer periodically asks Africans in different countries the same questions. The trend among people in Nigeria has been clear in recent years. The economy is going badly, and many feel that their country is unsafe. The number of kidnappings has risen sharply, and crime is and will remain a problem. And people don’t trust democracy either. For many, Peter Obi represents something new, because he does not come from the two established parties in Nigeria. Therefore, he manages to create a sense of hope and change for those who today are pessimists on behalf of Nigeria. 1. Peter Obi is 61 years old, Christian and with a Muslim vice-presidential candidate. He has been governor of Anambra state, in the south-east of Nigeria. He was praised for the work he did there, and is particularly popular in his part of the country. Says he wants: More freedom of the press More jobs Less corruption. But he is not completely spotless. The excavation project Pandora Papers revealed that Obi had hidden certain investments he had made abroad, and that some of this had been sent to tax havens. 2. Bola Tinubu is the ruling party’s candidate, and thus a central part of the current political regime. There are many question marks about the age. But between 70 and 80 years. Tinubu has had to endure a lot of criticism. The most serious debts come from American authorities, who suggested that Tinubu was the owner of accounts that could be linked to heroin trafficking. But also guilty of abusing public funds for personal gain. Around Lagos you can see Bola Tinubu, smiling from election posters. Photo: Vegard Tjørhom / news His supporters believe Tinubu represents stability and experience. Tinubu is a Muslim and also has a Muslim vice-presidential candidate. It breaks an unwritten rule in a country where both Christianity and Islam are major religions. It has made some headlines that Tinubu is not standing for election together with a Christian. 3. Atiku Abubakar is the last big favourite. He becomes most clear when it comes to finance and economics. He wants to privatize the state oil company and use the money from such a sale to speed up small and medium-sized companies. The aim is to create jobs, which Nigeria really needs more of. He has also advocated renegotiating debt agreements, and obtaining more international support for Nigeria’s tech sector. Atiku Abubakar is trying for the sixth time. Photo: Radeno Haniel / AP His plans to stop fuel subsidies may cause a stir. Because then fuel prices will go up in a country where there are already long queues around most petrol stations. This is the sixth time Abubakar is trying to become Nigeria’s president. The businessman has changed parties several times. Now Abubakar is the presidential candidate of the largest opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party. 4. Then it is also worth noting that the man with the red hat, Rabiu Kwankwaso, can capture a number of votes in his home area in the north of Nigeria. This could lead to the two established candidates, Tinubu and Abubakar, losing some of the votes they would otherwise have received. Rabiu Kwankwaso is the joker who can make Nigeria’s presidential election even more exciting than it already is. Photo: Gbemiga Olamikan / AP 220 million Nigerians and maybe 440 million mobile phones? In any case, it can look like this when you walk around Lagos, a big city where many people have several mobile phones for different uses. And on the small screens, a lot has happened in the days before the election. – Social media have been completely decisive for people to become interested in the election. It is particularly useful when trying to reach out to young people, says Japheth Omojuwa. He is an expert on social media, and an active debater on several levels. On Twitter, over 1.2 million people follow what he has to say. Japheth Omojuwa believes Peter Obi would win if social media was decisive. But it’s not quite like that, he says. Photo: Vegard Tjørhom / news Omojuwa tells the story of a Nigeria where politics has for many years been something that the elite have done. Debates are a rare commodity, and ordinary people often only got involved if they were paid. This can also be seen in the voter turnout, which at the last election was only 35 percent. But with the mobile phone, things have changed. – People come together and have conversations in different ways. They both agree and disagree. It is almost like a virtual parliament, says Omojuwa. It is especially youth favorite Peter Obi who gets a lot of attention on TikTok and Instagram. Through all the activity on the internet, he has perhaps also made many journalists believe that he is the big favourite. Many cameras documented Obi’s election campaign event, and several went directly from the art event onto social media. But it is not quite that simple, believes Japheth Omojuwa. – A huge number of voters live in places where they don’t care about social media. They vote for the people they have heard about locally, and the party they know from before, explains Omojuwa. Many in Nigeria agree that it has long been the case that the winner is the one who manages to buy votes, and that there is a network of people right down to the village level who influence the outcome of the election by paying money to get people to vote. vote for “their” candidate. In such places, TikTok has little influence. This year’s choice stood out. Since 1999, Nigeria has been a democracy where two main candidates and two parties have fought to win. But with Peter Obi’s success, everything indicates that Nigeria will now become a multi-party system. Thus, there may also, for the first time, be two election rounds. To win, a candidate must have the most votes nationally, and at the same time more than 25 percent support in at least 24 out of 36 states. If no one gets this, a new round must be held before three weeks have passed. So the question is what happens if there is a close election. The established parties still have broad support, and many Nigerians have a personal interest in their candidate ending up in power. There were many guards who made sure that no one was injured during Peter Obi’s election campaign event in Lagos. Photo: Vegard Tjørhom / news At the same time, Peter Obi has managed to create hope among many young people. If he loses, the frustration from previous demonstrations could lead to new protests. And the rhetoric surrounding the election was not only of the peaceful kind. There are also several separatist groups, and other actors who may be interested in a destabilized Nigeria. Elections and elections have long been two sides of the same coin. The Electoral Commission in the country has warned of fear of violence in the days surrounding the election. And several observers believe that the closer an election becomes, the more the risk of violence increases. According to ACLED, which keeps statistics on conflict over large parts of Africa, there have been 53 incidents since New Year and up to 17 February, where people have been attacked because they support a specific candidate. This has led to the loss of 25 human lives. Almost 95 million people are registered to participate in the elections in Nigeria. A result is expected before Tuesday 28 February.
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Nigeria’s youth have been protesting for several years
