For more than two years, the political crisis in Venezuela has appeared completely locked. Despite strong international pressure, President Maduro remains in power in Caracas. Parts of the opposition have fled the country, and several national protests were cracked down on by the authorities before the pandemic. Major national protests erupted against the government after the presidential election in 2018. The authorities were criticized for choosing to respond to the protesters with violence. Photo: FEDERICO PARRA / AFP Since then, the humanitarian situation has deteriorated, and Norway has also tried to resolve the conflict between the parties – without a formal negotiation. Now a newly elected president in neighboring Colombia can change the fate of Venezuela, according to a Latin America expert. Will soften ice front The historic victory of former guerrilla member Gustavo Petro in Colombia last month will probably have consequences far beyond the country’s borders. Colombian soldiers patrol the border with Venezuela in 2021. In recent years, diplomatic relations between the countries have been very cool. Photo: SCHNEYDER MENDOZA / AFP Relations between neighboring Venezuela and Colombia have been at the cooling point for several years. Petro went to the polls to re-establish the diplomatic line to Caracas. However, he recently emphasized that he will also make demands on Maduro. The election of Gustavo Petro as President of Colombia could have consequences for the talks between the government and the opposition in Venezuela. Photo: DANIEL MUNOZ / AFP – These are not problems that will be solved overnight, Petro acknowledged to El Pais. Border, guerrilla and mass migration Petro has a lot to gain from resolving the diplomatic tangle with Venezuela, according to International Crisis Group analyst Phillip Gunson. Phil Gunson is a senior analyst in South America for the NGO International Crisis Group and an expert on Venezuelan politics and society. Photo: International Crisis Group Main motivation? To gain control of mass migration and a border that extends over 2,200 kilometers. Colombia is home to 2 million Venezuelan refugees. They constitute a financial burden, and will probably return if conditions improve in their home country, Gunson explains. Several million Venezuelans have fled the difficult humanitarian and economic situation in the country. Photo: SCHNEYDER MENDOZA / AFP – In addition, it is central for Petro to regain control of the border. He must overcome the presence of thousands of Colombian guerrillas hiding in Venezuela. Several of these seem to have a particularly good relationship with the Maduro government, Gunson says. More difficult without Trump and Duque Petro has stated that he wants new dialogues between the Maduro government and the opposition in Venezuela. In addition, he says that it is not relevant to extradite regime critics or opposition politicians to Venezuela. Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó has failed to seize power from incumbent President Maduro. Professor Benedicte Bull now believes that there will be a change of pace in the negotiations. Photo: YURI CORTEZ / AFP Professor of Political Science at UiO Benedicte Bull believes the election of a left-wing president in Colombia could affect the dynamics of Venezuelan politics. – Petro will probably not support the Venezuelan opposition as blindly as the outgoing president of Colombia Iván Duque has done for the past four years. Professor Benedicte Bull at the Center for Environment and Development at UiO is researching Latin American politics and society. Photo: Anja Bergersen / UIO This means that the more extreme part of the opposition who live in exile and do not want dialogue with the Maduro regime, is now further weakened after the changes of government in both the USA and Colombia. The outgoing president of Colombia, Iván Duque, was, like Trump, a supporter of the more radical part of the opposition, which did not want dialogue with the Maduro regime. Several prominent opposition leaders who have criticized the dialogue live in Colombia, and they will now lose another important ally, Bull explains. President Nicolás Maduro during a memorial service in February 2022. Photo: JHONN ZERPA / AFP However, she does not think it will weaken the opposition as a whole. – The majority within the opposition in Venezuela are clear on the desire for dialogue and a broad agreement with the Maduro regime on democratization. Many are probably skeptical of Petro, but this can also be to their advantage, says Bull. Foreign Ministry reinforces in Venezuela Professor Bull does not believe in a quick solution to the political crisis in Venezuela, although she believes that the conditions for new dialogues are better than in a long time. Simultaneously with the latest developments, news can also report that Norway is strengthening diplomacy in Venezuela. Nicolás Maduro has been president of Venezuela since taking over from his predecessor Hugo Chávez in 2013. Photo: YURI CORTEZ / AFP The Norwegian embassy was closed in 2013, but now the Ministry of Foreign Affairs sends a Norwegian diplomat to be stationed in the capital Caracas in August. – The decision is based on a long-term desire for a Norwegian presence in Venezuela in order to be able to follow up a number of cases, says communications consultant Ragnhild Håland Simenstad to news. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not want to go into further detail on which cases they want to follow up. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro Photo: FEDERICO PARRA / AFP Professor Benedicte Bull believes this is a clear sign that Norway wants to position itself to be able to contribute to new peace talks in Venezuela. – Actually, it has been unnatural that Norway has not had any official representation, so involved has been in facilitating dialogue. The fact that a formal presence is now being restored is both a signal of a desire for further involvement, and part of a trend in which more western countries are normalizing relations with Venezuela, Bull says.
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New president in neighboring country opens for change in Venezuela – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
