In a new forecast from Offshore Norway, investments in oil and gas for next year are calculated at NOK 240 billion. This corresponds to a growth of 9 per cent from 2023, and is higher than what Statistics Norway came to in August. The increase comes from increased exploration activity and several development projects. About the investment analysis The forecast for the oil and gas industry for the Norwegian continental shelf has been prepared by Offshore Noreg. The analysis is published annually, and provides estimates for investment activity on the Norwegian continental shelf for the next five years based on the companies’ own investment plans at the end of the current year. Offshore Norway has received data from 13 operating companies. These accounted for 98 per cent of the production on the Norwegian continental shelf in 2022. Based on the reports, the analysis gives a picture of the level of investment from 2024 to 2028 as the plans now stand. Offshore Norway does not make independent assessments of any developments that are not currently included in the companies’ investment plans. In June 2020, a broad majority in the Storting adopted new rules in the petroleum tax (the “oil tax package”) to ensure that the activity through times of pandemic and oil price war. Several of the doctors in charge have since acknowledged that the package was “too generous”. On behalf of Offshore Norway, Rystad Energy has estimated the additional income for the state from the package at NOK 170 billion. – In the coming years, we can expect a high level of investment. It provides jobs in large and small supplier companies throughout the country, and is important for securing Europe’s reliable energy, says chief economist at Offshore Norway, Marius Menth Andersen. See the entire presentation here. After 2024, it is expected that investments will fall (see below). Large investments and high exploration activity, in addition to increasing operating costs, meant that the total costs on the Norwegian continental shelf were record high in 2014. – Norway has been given a role that is more important than many people realize The phasing out of fossil energy has been the major topic of contention during the climate summit in Dubai. UN Secretary-General António Guterres campaigned for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels, but the final declaration was more cautious in its wording. At our own latitudes, the war in Ukraine has created “a craving” for Norwegian gas, and debate about whether Norway should build more gas pipes to the continent. During the December conference in Kristiansund, Director of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Torgeir Stordal, spoke about how “Norway has been given a role that is more important than many people understand”. – In a country like ours, which for all practical purposes is self-sufficient in electrical energy, many find it difficult to accept how important our gas is for Britons and Europeans, he said. According to Eurostat, Norwegian gas covers around a quarter of energy consumption in Europe. Norway’s emission sources 1990–2022 Select year 199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152 016201720182019202020212022Million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents? Press for explanation of CO₂ equivalents Extraction of oil and gas12 Go to news’s Climate Status – Clear expectation that central companies will turn over all stones Earlier in December, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate presented an overview of Norwegian gas resources that of various grounds are not developed, but “lie fallow”. Half of the undiscovered resources are in the Barents Sea (see map). Most of the Barents Sea is considered an immature and little-explored petroleum province, although exploration has been going on here for more than 30 years, and the first discovery was made in the early 1980s. In November 2022, the government announced that the 26th round of concessions will be postponed until 2025. Photo: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate – I have a clear expectation that central companies will turn over all stones to find more gas in the Barents Sea and that the work to realize increased gas export capacity from the sea area will continue , said Oil and Energy Minister Terje Aasland when the study was presented. The Climate Committee 2050 has, for its part, proposed a permanent monitoring stand in areas without existing infrastructure. In January, the government expanded the so-called TFO area in the Barents Sea. The pink blocks are new proposed exploration areas. Photo: regjeringen.no – Neatly putting away the “dream of the nineties” Responsible editor in Energy and Climate, Anders Bjartnes, writes in a comment that “the dream of the nineties that the Barents Sea will become a large and important petroleum province” is still the guiding principle in the oil policy of the Labor Party. – It becomes apparent when Jonas Gahr Støre does not want to move Norway’s oil policy in line with the recommendations from the Climate Committee, he writes. In March, the government gave “the green light for a new industrial boost in the North Sea”. – We constantly need new discoveries to further develop the Norwegian continental shelf, says Oil and Energy Minister Terje Aasland. Photo: Heiko Junge / NTB Bjartnes writes that the dream that “wealth would spurt out of the borehole above the edge of the ice” had its historical peak when Norway signed the gray zone agreement and the Russians seemed willing to cooperate. But that was before the Ukraine invasion. Today, Bjartnes claims it would be more “tidy and future-oriented” to put the plans away. – It would also be a signal from the Norwegian side that the race for resources in the Arctic is something we want all states to refrain from. Norway’s greenhouse gas emissions and climate targets measured in million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents60 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents? Click for explanation of CO₂ equivalents. Norway’s climate target 23.1 million tonnes annually Go to news’s Climate Status What is Norway’s climate target? By 2030, Norway must cut at least 55 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels. The goal is to be achieved in cooperation with the EU. By 2050, 90-95 per cent of Norwegian emissions must be cut. This means that we must cut emissions at record speed. In the last ten years we have managed to cut around 5 million tonnes, in the next ten we will cut around 25 million tonnes. How will Norway reach the climate target? Norway must cut emissions in two ways, because the sources of emissions can be divided into two: Emissions subject to a quota: This are particularly emissions from industry and the oil/gas platforms. The emissions are covered by the EU’s quota system: In order to emit greenhouse gases, the industry must buy permits (quotas) in the EU at the price determined by the quota market. Steadily higher prices and fewer quotas will force emissions cuts where it is easiest to implement. Non-quota-obligatory emissions: These are greenhouse gas emissions from, among other things, transport, agriculture, waste and heating in buildings. This is called the non-quota-obligatory sector because you do not need quotas to release greenhouse gases. How Norway can cut emissions in this sector is described in the specialist report “Climate cure 2030”. The politicians decide which of the measures from the report are to be implemented. Norway can also cut non-quota-obligatory emissions by paying for emission cuts in other European countries. The government says that it plans to meet the targets without using this option, but it can be used if it becomes “strictly necessary”. For Norway, the emissions in the two sectors are roughly the same: in 2019, they released around 25 million tonnes of greenhouse gases each .What happens if Norway does not reach the climate target? It could be politically embarrassing. A likely solution is that Norway chooses to pay for emission cuts in other countries. Norway can also be subject to sanctions if we do not reach the targets we have agreed with the EU. Norway must regularly report cuts to the UN, in line with the targets set in the Paris Agreement. Here, no sanctions are stipulated for those who do not fulfill their obligations.
ttn-69
New investment peak for Norwegian oil and gas – news Vestland
