The case in summary On Tuesday 30 July, it is five years since the extreme weather hit Jølster and Hyen. Torrential rain triggered a 20-odd landslide. One human life was lost. The five-year anniversary comes just days after surprising torrential rain led to major destruction in Hvidtsten in Akershus and Bø in Telemark. New climate change with longer dry periods and more frequent torrential rain leads to an increased risk of avalanches. Torrential rain can cause soil masses, vegetation and bedrock not to hold together, and landslides can occur. Meteorologists struggle to predict when and how torrential rain will hit, and thus also landslides. Norway’s Directorate of Water Resources and Energy (NVE) confirms that the global increase in temperature and torrential rain increases the risk of landslides. It is almost impossible to completely insure against landslides, and it can occur “as good as anything” when enough water comes in steep enough terrain. The summary is made by an AI service from OpenAI. The content is quality assured by news’s journalists before publication. Jølstravatnet, 30 July 2019: High up in the mountains are masses of soil, vegetation and bedrock. Layer. On teams. And these layers stick well to each other under normal weather conditions. They tolerate wind, rain and temperature fluctuations. But more and more often the dangerous torrential rain comes. Like on this July day. And when the concentrated amounts of water mix into the steep mountain sides, the chance increases that the different layers will not be able to hold on to each other. At the bottom of the mountain is a road, and the road is just open to traffic. The wet, heavy soil masses suddenly let go of the roof and begin to slide. The avalanche that took a car and a human life during the extreme weather in Jølster, 30.07.19. Photo: Høgskulen på Vestlandet, Sogndal At the start, the landslide is ten meters wide. Then it runs down a steep slope and grows in width, to 40 metres. It piles on, literally, and suddenly the slide is 80 meters wide. A car drives along the road down there. Ingar Sægrov wants to go home to his wife, and he has no idea what is happening right above him. When the landslide is almost down to the road, it is 100 meters wide, and now Ingar probably understands what is about to happen – if he looks out the window, to the right and slightly upwards. The dangerous torrential rain Tuesday marks five years since extreme weather hit Jølster in Sunnfjord and Hyen in Gloppen. One man died, and the damage was enormous. The fifth anniversary comes just days after the towns of Hvitsten in Akershus and Bø in Telemark have experienced similar and very local torrential rain. Common to all three: It came suddenly and unexpectedly. The meteorologists struggle to report where such weather will hit. Torrential rain, landslides and floes have become part of the news picture. The storm can take lives. 46 died in Brazil in 2023. A few months later, 15 people lost their lives in China, Berrføtt was a better solution than shoes at Burning Man last year. Photo: Trevor Hughes / USA TODAY NETWORK Norway’s Directorate of Water Resources and Energy (NVE) is clear: Global increases in both temperature and torrential rain increase the risk of landslides. But exactly which steep mountain sides the torrential rain will hit is almost impossible to assess. The meteorologists’ models are still not close enough to the landscape. – This is where we make the most mistakes, but it is also one of the most important phenomena we warn of, says state meteorologist Geir Ottar Fagerlid. Because a torrential rain city is very local, and need not be larger than four times four kilometres. Fagerlid remembers the stormy day in Jølster in 2019. – We were going no further than Ålhus until the weather was much better than what was at Vassenden. Ålhus is eight kilometers from Vassenden. State meteorologist Geir Ottar Fagerlid says it is very difficult to know where the storm causes the most damage in areas with high mountains. Photo: Simen Sundfjord Otterlei / news Happens more often – There was mud, brown water and a lot of broken wood in the water. Siv Seljesæter is a landslide forecaster in NVE. The day after Jølster and Sunnfjord were hit by 166 small and large landslides, she saw the chaos from a helicopter. – I thought that a lot had happened in a short time. It is rare that torrential rain creates such dangerous situations, but it happens more and more often. news reported this spring about the increase in torrential rain, which the Norwegian Climate Services Center is already seeing. This is how climate change creates more torrential rain Man-made emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases have already made the world warmer. When it is warm, water evaporates in the atmosphere. A warmer climate also means that the atmosphere can hold more water, according to the UN climate panel. As a result, a warmer world gets more drought – but also more intense precipitation, when the rain first comes. – Globally, we see that the area where it rains all over the globe has decreased so that the precipitation is becoming more concentrated, while at the same time the amount of precipitation is increasing. We are getting more of these local, heavy rainfall events, says Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, head of the Norwegian Climate Service Centre. Never completely safe, Yngve Midttun in NVE is trying to transform the Meteorological Institute’s forecasts into landslide warnings. It is challenging. – With torrential rain, it is difficult to know where it will come from, he says. As a result, landslides can occur “as good as possible” when there is enough water, in steep enough terrain, he explains. – Can we completely rid ourselves of this problem? – Then you have to quickly put all the roads into tunnels. “No” is the answer. Help from KI? At the Meteorological Institute, the models are getting better and better, but progress is slow. Geir Ottar Fagerlid has one hope in particular for the future: – Within machine learning, there are great opportunities to make historical forecasts and see how the result turned out. Then the hope is that it can become easier to notify, and that the notification will be more secure. Even in a new climatic weekday with more torrential rain. Published 30.07.2024, at 11.38
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New climate change day leads to longer dry spells that are often interrupted by dangerous torrential rains – news Vestland
