Security was tightened. But fans could enjoy a well-executed Taylor Swift concert in London earlier this week. “Wembley is as safe as it gets,” security consultant Chris Phillips, former head of Britain’s counter-terrorism department, told Reuters. The fear of an attack did not come out of the blue. Last week, three Swift concerts in Vienna were canceled after a planned suicide attack was foiled. Three teenagers, a 19-year-old and two 17-year-olds, were arrested. The three had ties to the Islamic State (IS). The group is not known for making empty threats. “Diffuse nature” In March this year, Europe experienced the worst terrorist attack in 20 years. Almost 150 audience members were killed when attackers opened fire at a concert outside the Russian capital Moscow. IS claimed responsibility for the attack. The concert hall in Moscow was fully engulfed in flames after IS terrorists attacked in March and then set fire to the building. Almost 150 people were killed. Photo: Sergei Vedyashkin / AP That this is happening now is no accident, say experts. This summer marks ten years since IS emerged in full force in Syria and Iraq. The group conquered large areas of land, recruited thousands of foreign fighters and became an international terrorist network. In the areas they controlled, they imposed a brutal regime. People were beheaded, burned alive, crucified and submerged in acid. Children were used to kill. Women were kept as sex slaves. But five years ago, that apparently ended. The USA, Russia and dozens of other countries went to war against IS. So did Kurdish forces on the ground. In the end, IS lost. A car bomb explodes near Iraqi soldiers as they fight IS in Mosul, Iraq in November 2016. Photo: Felipe Dana / AP But they never completely disappeared. And recently they have become increasingly active. Now there are warnings that the group is a greater danger than in a long time. Both in the core area of Syria, but also in other parts of the world such as Afghanistan and parts of Africa. And as the attack in Moscow and the threat to the Swift concert in Vienna show, the terrorist threat never went away either. – The coalition has evolved to keep up with the threat’s development and increasingly diffuse nature, said Ian McCary of the US Foreign Ministry’s counter-terrorism department recently at a seminar. – More integrated and robust It is difficult to get an overview of what is going on. But in North Africa, south of the Sahara, IS or Islamist groups with links to IS are regularly behind attacks. According to McCary, 60 percent of IS’s propaganda today comes from these areas. A South African soldier on patrol in DR Congo in February this year. South Africa is among the countries that have sent forces to DR Congo to fight rebel groups, including groups with ties to IS. Photo: Moses Sawasawa / AP On Friday, 16 people were killed and 20 kidnapped when a group with ties to IS attacked a village in DR Congo, according to local sources, ABC News reported. In Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, the local IS branch ISKP is allowed to operate freely in areas outside the government’s control, according to think tank ICCT. And in northeastern Syria, in the area where IS was actually defeated five years ago, the United States and US-backed forces are now fighting an IS that is about to flourish again here as well, according to the Wall Street Journal. – In the last five years, IS as an organization has gone through a change, says jihad researcher Aaron Zelin at the Washington Institute to news. Aaron Zelin at the Washington Institute think tank is an expert on Islamic terrorism and is, among other things, behind the website Jihadology.net. When IS first emerged, just over ten years ago, they were organized with a core area in Syria and Iraq, and their provinces in, among other places, the Arabian Peninsula, in Africa and Afghanistan. In 2018 and 2019, at the same time that IS had to lose in Syria and Iraq, this distinction disappeared. Now all the branches are more equal, says Zelin: – They are more integrated and more robust because all the provinces are better coordinated between each other. When they were on the rise in Syria and Iraq, IS proudly shared propaganda films showing attacks. – Fewer people who accompany IS members are sent between the provinces to give advice on how to manage or take control of areas based on experiences from other places, says Zelin. Contact between alien fighters has been improved. And international operations are planned by several different departments. For example, the ISKP in Afghanistan took the blame for the attack in Moscow. IS attacks in Europe and the USA In the years after 2013, the Islamic State was behind a number of attacks and terrorist attacks, particularly in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Africa. But several attacks in Europe and the US are also linked to the group: May 2014: Four people are killed when a man opens fire on the Jewish Museum in Brussels, Belgium. October 2015: More than 100 are killed in a suicide attack in Ankara, Turkey. October 2015: More than 200 are killed when a bomb goes off on a flight between Egypt and Russia. December 2015: 14 people are killed when a married couple starts shooting around in San Bernardino. March 2016: Suicide bombers attack a metro station and Brussels airport. More than 30 people are killed. June 2016: Almost 50 people are killed when a man starts shooting at a gay nightclub in Orlando, USA. July 2016: Almost 90 people are killed when a man deliberately drives a truck into a crowd in Nice, France. August 2016: A child detonates a suicide bomb at a wedding in Gaziantep. Almost 60 people are killed. December 2016: A man drives a truck into a Christmas market in Berlin. 13 people are killed. April 2017: Five people are killed when a man drives a truck down a pedestrian street in Stockholm. May 2017: Suicide bombers attack an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester. 22 people are killed. June 2017: Eight people are killed when a man drives a car into a group of pedestrians on London Bridge. – I think they will continue to try to set up various governance projects in different countries, attract foreign fighters and carry out international operations – either with their own people or by inspiring local terrorists, says Zelin. – So the plan is more of the same. But previously, when countries could focus on Syria and Iraq, this happens in a larger group of countries. At the same time, other things are also happening which mean that Western countries have less focus on IS and extreme Islamist terrorism. The rise of China, for example. And the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. IS soldiers with black flags celebrate in the city of Raqqa in northern Syria in 2014. Photo: Uncredited / AP – There are fewer resources and budgets devoted to this, and fewer people who follow it. So it is possible that it gives IS more room to manoeuvre, says Zelin. But on one point, IS has not changed, according to the terrorism researcher: IS is still as brutal as ten years ago. – Nothing has changed on that front. But it doesn’t get as much attention in the media anymore, says Zelin. In July, for example, pictures of a new beheading appeared on the internet, he says. – So we still see such pictures and videos all the time. Interested in foreign affairs? Listen to the foreign affairs editor’s recent podcast: Published 17.08.2024, at 19.20
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