– We are heading towards intense times for those who are interested in what happens in the sky, Magnar Gullikstad Johnsen tells news. As head of the observatory at the Tromsø Geophysical Observatory (TGO), he is one of them. Because while most people are concerned with extreme weather and extreme cold, he is at least as concerned with phenomena such as solar storms and space weather. And there will be a lot of that in 2024 and 2025, according to the researchers. – It can be both negative and positive, says Johnsen. The sun sometimes has bursts of much more powerful energy than normal. Photo: NASA Spectacular color show – also in the south We take the positive first. Because with increased solar activity, you get more, stronger and more colorful northern lights. They will also appear more often in southern Norway, where you rarely see the northern lights otherwise. – During active periods, the northern lights tend to move southwards, so that they become visible where you are not usually used to seeing them. Just like in southern Norway, confirms the researcher. He refers to the most powerful aurora outbursts as a “spectacular color show” with elements of both red and blue in addition to the green. – And do we now get more of these color shows? – Correct. Solar cycle and solar maximum It was in the 18th century that scientists began counting the number of sunspots on the sun. Scientists have been concerned with these for several hundred years. To put it simply, many sunspots mean that the sun is at its most active. Fewer spots mean that the activity is lower. Eventually it was also discovered that the number varied from zero sunspots to over 200. This is how it was discovered that the solar cycle could be measured. We are now in the period when the sun is at its most active. This is called the solar maximum and occurs every 11 years. A peak in activity is expected around 2025. Magnar Gullikstad Johnsen is head of the observatory at the Tromsø Geophysical Observatory (TGO). Photo: David Jensen, UiT Can affect the power grid Increased solar activity therefore provides beautiful nature experiences. Most people want more of it. But the increased activity can affect our power grid. Kristian Solheim Thinn is a researcher at Sintef Energi. He is a specialist in electrical power supply and sees how solar storms affect the power supply in Norway. Admittedly, it is the powerful solar storms that cause problems. – For the power grid that I am looking at, in the vast majority of cases it will go well. But if something big happens, it can be black for everyone. – Hopefully for a shorter period, he says. Because solar storms have hit the power grid on several occasions. So far, it has not led to power outages in Norway, but in Sweden and Malmö, solar storms caused around 50,000 people to lose power in 2003. In 1989, solar storms also affected the power supply to Quebec. Then 6 million inhabitants were without electricity for nine hours. This 2021 NASA image, taken from the International Space Station, shows the aurora above Earth’s atmosphere. Photo: NASA/HANDOUT / AFP – Cascade effect Thinn says that it is the long power lines that are the biggest problem, They act almost like antennas for a solar storm. – The currents from the solar storm find their way through power lines or cables. Everything will be fine until we get to the transformer. The researcher says that the transformers in the central grid are made for alternating current, while the solar current is almost direct current. – This causes the transformer to go into what we call saturation. It can overheat and destabilize the network. If it gets overheated or destabilized too much, it is shut down by the control system to ensure it is not destroyed. – Then the other transformers have to take the job, and if there is reserve capacity then it works fine. But if there is no reserve capacity or there is a very strong solar storm, then you get what the researcher calls a cascade effect. – Then the next one will break down or disconnect. And then the next one and the next one after that again. Eventually it gets dark, he says. SINTEF researcher Kristian Solheim Thinn. Requesting own warning service The Directorate for Safety and Emergency Preparedness (DSB) has actually carried out a risk analysis of a so-called 100-year solar storm. It was carried out in 2011 and later updated in 2019. This was to assess how serious the consequences of such a solar storm could be for Norway. “A strong solar storm will affect the power system and satellites, and in the worst case cause power outages in large areas and create problems for navigation, positioning, accurate time and communication,” the analysis said, among other things. Magnar Gullikstad Johnsen and TGO monitor space weather, i.e. the effect the sun has on modern infrastructure, modern technology and lifestyle. But with the exception of the offer to TGO in Tromsø, there is currently no comprehensive warning of space weather in Norway. – What we have been doing the most and for the longest time is looking at the magnetic disturbances and how they affect the oil industry when they drill, he says. It is true that work is being done to build up a national space weather warning service, where, among others, the Norwegian Armed Forces and the Meteorological Institute are on the team. But for now such a service is years away, and Johnsen is impatient. – We need a national space weather warning service and it is not particularly expensive. The dancing lights of the Northern Lights appear as the sun emerges from behind the Earth. The photo was taken by astronaut Scott Kelly from the International Space Station in 2015. Photo: Reuters – Will affect power grids and navigation In 2012, a new and very powerful explosion was observed on the sun. Scientists concluded that this solar storm was as powerful as the so-called Carrington storm in 1859. This was a violent solar storm that is considered the most powerful recorded on Earth. This time it luckily missed our planet. The solar storm of 1859 destroyed telegraph lines across the United States, causing sparks and fires in several telegraph systems. But in 1859 the telegraph was about the only technology we had. Today, it is expected that such a powerful space storm would have affected the power grid, satellite navigation, GPS and the mobile network. – We don’t really know how this technology will be affected, and what cascading effects you get when, for example, the power grid and half of the satellites in orbit around the Earth go down for counting. – Just since 2003, when we had that incident in Sweden, society has made itself extremely much more dependent on satellites and mobile telephony, Johnsen points out. Facts about past solar storms 1859: The solar storm of 1859 is the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history. It occurred on 1–2 September 1859. The solar storm destroyed telegraph lines across the United States, causing sparks and fires in several telegraph systems. 1921: “New York Railroad Storm”: Solar storms brought New York trains to a standstill for three days. In 1989, a large geomagnetic storm hit Quebec and knocked out the power grid. Then Quebec’s 15 million residents were without power for eight hours. This was in the middle of a winter storm, so it was cold and there was a lot of bad weather. In 2003, there was a similar incident where areas around Malmö in southern Sweden were affected. So it has happened here in more domestic areas as well. In 2012, an explosion was observed on the sun, where scientists have concluded that the solar storm was as powerful as the one in 1859, but this one missed the earth. – If it had hit, then we would have had the same situation as 150 years ago, says Magnar Gullikstad Johnsen. In 2022, Eton Musk and SpaceX lost 40 of their 49 Starlink satellites to solar storms.
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More and more powerful solar storms give us a northern lights bonanza – but can cause problems – news Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
