57-year-old Mark Rutte will now take over the chief’s chair after Jens Stoltenberg. Mark Rutte has been mentioned as Stoltenberg’s successor, pretty much every time Stoltenberg thought his time as NATO chief was coming to an end. Jens Stoltenberg – second longest serving in NATO Jens Stoltenberg is already the second longest serving secretary general in NATO’s 74-year history. Most of the predecessors have served the four-year period for which they are initially appointed. Only the Dutchman Joseph Luns will have a longer time as chief than Stoltenberg when he resigns. Luns ruled the defense alliance between 1971 and 1984. The last two secretaries-general before Stoltenberg, Dutch Jaap De Hoop Scheffer and Danish Anders Fogh Rasmussen, served for five years. Jens Stoltenberg took office as NATO chief on 1 October 2014. His term expired in autumn 2018, but has since been extended four times. Already in 2017, Stoltenberg was asked if he would consider extending his term by two years, to autumn 2020. To which he agreed. In the spring of 2019, the question came up again: This time whether he could sit for another two years, until 1 October 2022. This time, too, he agreed. Just over half a year before he was due to return home to Oslo and the task of central bank governor, Russia proceeded to full invasion of neighboring Ukraine. And the question came up again: Could he stay in the chief’s chair a little longer? Stoltenberg resigned from his job at Norges Bank and stayed in Brussels. The end date was set for 30 September 2023. Several, including the American president, wanted Stoltenberg to stay in the secretary-general job for two more years. That it ended with one is due to France. It is well known in diplomatic circles that the French and the French president are not quite as enthusiastic about the former Norwegian prime minister as, for example, the American one. It turned out that the NATO countries struggled to agree on a successor and Stoltenberg was asked if he could manage the NATO ship for one more year. He said no, with the message that he wanted to go home to Norway. But when US President Joe Biden, during the meeting in the White House in the summer of 2023, urgently asked him to stay put, Stoltenberg relented. New end date is 30 September 2024. But Rutte said for a long time that he preferred Dutch politics. It is a political veteran who will now lead the world’s largest defense alliance. In the autumn of 2022, the liberal-conservative politician had become the Netherlands’ longest-serving prime minister, with his 12 years. When the fourth coalition government collapsed last summer due to disagreements over immigration, he surprised by saying “enough is enough”. And added that if someone wanted him as NATO chief, then he would run. Rutte himself said that it would probably end with a woman. The experienced Dutch prime minister is considered to be one of the most accessible heads of government, both in the EU and NATO. Photo: Johanna Geron / Reuters Behind closed doors There is no formal process when the defense alliance chooses a secretary-general, apart from the fact that the secretary-general traditionally comes from Europe, while the military commander-in-chief comes from the United States. The formal designation takes place in NATO’s council, by the defense alliance’s permanent ambassadors. Otherwise, most of it happens behind closed doors. Through talks between the ambassadors, foreign ministers, defense ministers and heads of government. The hope was to reach an agreement before Easter. So during the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting at the end of May. So during the NATO Defense Ministers meeting this week. The clock is ticking fast towards the big summit in Washington DC at the beginning of July, where NATO’s 75th anniversary will be marked. It does not look good to highlight the very motto of the defense alliance “one for all and all for one” if the same alliance is unable to agree on a new commander. All these must agree before a new NATO chief is appointed. Here from NATO’s previous summit in Vilnius last July. Photo: Andrew Carallero-Reynolds / AP But where there were originally 12 member states that had to agree on one name – or one man – there are now 32 countries. NATO’s 32 member countries From its formation in 1949: Belgium Canada Denmark France Iceland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Portugal United Kingdom USA From 1952: From 1955: From 1982: From 1990: Germany (East Germany and West Germany became one country) From 1999: From 2004: Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Lithuania Romania Slovakia Slovenia From 2009: From 2017: From 2020: From 2023: From 2024: When Stoltenberg was asked last year to take another year – his fourth extension – the reason must have been a lack of agreement on the successor . “The big four” agree in the back room In February, Great Britain, France, Germany and the United States came out of the conversation and said they stood behind the Dutchman as the new NATO chief. Rutte becomes the fourth Dutch Secretary General in NATO’s 75-year history. Not everyone is equally excited about that. Several of NATO’s member states in Central and Eastern Europe believed that three former Dutchmen were allowed to stay. That on top of three Britons, two Belgians, a German, an Italian, a Spaniard, a Dane and a Norwegian. And, all men. Many therefore believed that the time had come for a woman. Or one from NATO’s newer members in the east. And most preferably, someone with experience as head of government. Mark Rutte not only has the same prime ministerial background as Jens Stoltenberg. He is considered to have many of the same personal qualities, which are now considered important when 32 countries must agree. Photo: Yves Herman / Reuters It has been used against Rutte’s candidacy – in addition to the fact that he is a man from Western Europe – that the Netherlands has not yet met the requirement to spend 2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product on defense, while many of the countries in the East spend far more. Romania’s President Klaus Iohannis therefore launched himself as the official candidate. Hungary’s powerful Prime Minister Viktor Orban made it clear that Mark Rutte was no friend of Hungary. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also voiced his objections. Many therefore feared a repeat of the Sweden mess. Movement by Orban At the end of April, the Dutch Prime Minister went to Ankara and met Erdogan. And the president, who is known to hold out for a long time if he wants to achieve something, agreed after receiving what he described as a “satisfactory response.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan initially belonged to the wing of countries that would not give the green light to Rutte, but after talks in Istanbul in April, Erdogan said that the country supported Rutte’s candidacy. Photo: HANDOUT / AFP In the end, three countries remained; Hungary and Romania, with Slovakia in tow. In an interview last week, Viktor Orban signaled that he could accept Mark Rutte, under the following conditions: Rutte had to apologize for earlier “insulting statements” about Hungary and Orban, and Rutte had to promise that Hungary would not have to participate in military operations in Ukraine aimed at Russia. As of now, no one is demanding, planning or preparing such a military operation from Nato. And there is no obligation for member states to participate in military operations outside the alliance’s territory. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Donald Trump have a cordial relationship. The fear in NATO circles has been that Orban would coach the process of a new NATO chief until the US presidential election. In March, Orban visited Trump at his home Mar-a-Lago in Florida. Photo: ZOLTAN FISCHER / AFP Outgoing Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has also visited Budapest this week, where he made promises to appease Orban. Stoltenberg assured Orban that Hungary does not need to contribute money or personnel to NATO’s support for Ukraine. In return, Orban promised not to block the long-term NATO support, which Stoltenberg is trying to put in place. The election in the USA The upcoming presidential election in the USA in November has also played a role in the background. Incumbent President Joe Biden stands on the same ground that American presidents have stood on since 1949; NATO and the European allies are the pillar of US security, just as NATO and the US are for Europe. Mark Rutte visited US President Joe Biden in the White House in January. It may have been decisive for the USA to support Rutte early on, together with Germany, France and Great Britain. Photo: Carolyn Kaster / AP Donald Trump, on the other hand, created a furore in defense circles during the four years he was president, especially with his repeated threats to withdraw the United States from the alliance. Trump as presidential candidate continues with the same thing now, among other things by saying that he does not intend to defend countries that do not pay enough. He also cast doubt on further support for Ukraine in the war against Russia. Outgoing Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg has received much of the credit for the fact that Nato came out of the Trump era “unscathed”. But Mark Rutte is also said to have taken his “turn”, and is considered one of the European leaders who handled Trump the best. It probably also played a role in the choice of the Dutchman. As the danger of four new chaotic security policy years approaches, Rutte has said that Europe must stop whining, complaining and nagging about Trump and rather focus on what the continent itself can do to strengthen its defense and help Ukraine. Jens Stoltenberg has led NATO since 1 October 2014. The Norwegian will only have the Dutchman Joseph Luns ahead of him in the statistics when he steps down on 30 September, and will thus be succeeded by a new Dutchman. Published 26.06.2024, at 10.15
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