At the end of July, Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group had big problems. Together with the Malian army, which seized power in the country four years ago, they fought against rebels in the north of the country. On July 27, the defeat was a fact, wrote Caleb Weiss, an analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation in the Long War Journal. The rebels, Tuareg fighters and Islamist fighters from Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), declared victory. About 80 Wagner soldiers may have been killed and 15 captured. – If it is true that Wagner lost 80 soldiers in this battle, then it will mark the group’s biggest defeat on the African continent to date, writes Weiss. But this is not the only remarkable thing about the battle. Admitted support for the rebels Shortly afterwards, an image began to circulate online. It shows what may be Tuareg warriors who fought the Wagner soldiers and the Malian army. In their hands they apparently have two flags. One is the Azawad flag, the flag of the unrecognized state of Azawad in northern Mali. The second is the Ukrainian flag. The photo was also shared in an article in the Kyiv Post along with a quote from a representative of Ukraine’s intelligence service, Andrij Yusov, who had spoken on television. – The rebels received the necessary information which ensured that they could carry out a successful military operation against Russian war criminals, said Jusov. From left: Ukrainian intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov with the head of Ukrainian intelligence Kyrylo Budanov in February. Yusov said that Ukraine had given the rebels help in the fight against Malian soldiers and Wagner mercenaries. Photo: SERGEI SUPINSKY / AFP Several websites also claimed that Ukrainian soldiers had been present and fighting in the desert. Wagner soldiers, under the leadership of Yevgeny Prigozhin, have operated in several African countries. They also fought in Ukraine before rebelling against the military leadership last summer. A short time later, Prigozhin died in a plane crash. But before that he managed a trip to West Africa. After the death of the Wagner boss, the mercenaries have continued to operate in the area. This is the Wagner group The Wagner group is a private military company of mercenaries, which mainly consists of criminal Russians. They have participated in conflicts in several countries, including Ukraine, Mali, Sudan, Mozambique, Syria and Libya. They are accused of war crimes. The group’s founder and leader Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash last year. But could the new rumors be true? Did Ukraine provide military support to rebels and Islamist fighters with alleged links to Al Qaeda? Has Ukraine’s war against Russia spread to the West African desert? A false encouragement Several had doubts. And it didn’t take long for the BBC’s fact-checkers to determine that the picture was completely fake. – BBC Verify has established that the image originates from a video that was shared on X in June, where you don’t see a Ukrainian flag, only an Azawad flag, they wrote. In Moscow, on 4 August, a provisional memorial was set up for the Wagner soldiers who were killed in the battle against rebels in Mali in July. Photo: Yulia Morozova / Reuters Senior researcher at Nupi, Morten Bøås, is not surprised. He believes Ukrainian soldiers would never manage to get into Mali undetected. And Ukrainian intelligence does not have information that would help the rebels: – The Ukrainians do not have this type of intelligence, says Bøås. He points out that even France, which colonized Mali and has had a long presence in the country, had great difficulty gathering intelligence from the area. Morten Bøås believes it is unrealistic that the Ukrainian army should have given help to rebels in northern Mali. Photo: – According to Bøås, it may be that Ukrainian intelligence claimed this to give a “morale boost” through the strategic use of social media. – It may have been about showing that you are not alone in this fight. That others are also fighting against Wagner elsewhere in the world, says Bøås. This may have been punishing. Can fear a contagion effect The statements of Andrij Jusovs in Ukrainian intelligence fell heavily on the chest of the Malian authorities. They reacted with “shock”, they write in a statement shared on X on Monday. – Yusov admitted Ukraine’s participation in a cowardly, treacherous and barbaric attack by armed terrorist groups, it says. Ukraine’s actions are called “open aggression”, which Mali condemns. They also support Russia’s claim that Ukraine is ruled by a neo-Nazi regime. The photo has been shared by France’s military and shows three Wagner soldiers (right) in northern Mali. The date is unknown. Photo: AP Then they announce that they are officially cutting all diplomatic ties with Ukraine with immediate effect. On the night of Wednesday, neighboring Niger announced that they were following suit. Ukraine has not commented on Niger’s decision. But they believe Mali acted “short-sightedly and hastily”. “Unfortunately, the authorities in Mali have decided to cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine without conducting a thorough investigation of the facts and circumstances of the incident in northern Mali, and without providing any evidence that Ukraine was involved,” a statement on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. Two French soldiers folded the French flag at a military base in Mali in 2022. The military junta in Mali asked forces from France and the United Nations to leave the country. They then started a collaboration with the Russian mercenaries in the Wagner group. Photo: HANDOUT / AFP That despite the statements of intelligence spokesman Andrij Jusov. Bøås believes this indicates that parts of Ukrainian foreign policy may be somewhat improvised. It is not certain that everything is in line with an overall strategy, he says. Now it may be that they are worried about the consequences, believes the senior researcher: – What they are perhaps a little afraid of is that this will spread, he says. Residents of Mali demonstrate against France and for Russia at the 60th anniversary of Mali’s independence on September 22, 2020. Photo: AP Mali and neighboring countries Burkina Faso and Niger are all ruled by military juntas that have seized power. In July, they entered into a closer collaboration. Morten Bøås believes it was likely that Burkina Faso and Niger could also follow Mali and cut ties with Ukraine, which is working to secure support from the international community in the war against Russia. – Then maybe other countries can also start doing this here. It is unfortunate for the Ukrainians, emphasizes the senior researcher. Interested in foreign affairs? Listen to the foreign editor’s podcast. Published 06.08.2024, at 19.41 Updated 07.08.2024, at 11.37
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