What factors are influencing Lyn Alden’s adjusted price target for Bitcoin? How does Alden believe a liquidity surge could impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory? What are the potential obstacles Alden identifies that may affect Bitcoin’s performance in the market? How does Alden’s analysis relate Bitcoin’s performance to historical economic conditions? What contrasting views are presented by 10x Research and other analysts regarding Bitcoin’s future price movement?
Prominent macroeconomist Lyn Alden believes Bitcoin is on track to finish 2025 above its current price of around $85,000. “Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden said during an April 17 interview with Natalie Brunell on Coin Stories. While she still expects Bitcoin to post gains by year-end, Alden noted that the tariffs introduced in February have tempered her earlier bullish outlook.
Alden explained that a major liquidity boost could push Bitcoin toward more ambitious targets. Such a scenario might occur if the U.S. bond market faces a crisis, prompting the Federal Reserve to respond with quantitative easing or yield curve control. Despite current macro headwinds, Alden believes there is still a “good chance” Bitcoin surpasses the $100,000 mark in 2025. However, she warned that global market volatility remains a key obstacle, especially because Bitcoin trades continuously — unlike traditional equity markets with limited trading hours. “Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” she said, pointing out that Bitcoin often reacts first to market jitters due to its round-the-clock nature.
While its correlation to tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq 100 has been noted, Alden believes Bitcoin can sometimes diverge, particularly when broader market conditions weigh on U.S. equities without directly impacting global liquidity. She drew comparisons to the period between 2003 and 2007, when a weak U.S. dollar cycle fueled capital flows into commodities, emerging markets, and gold — bypassing U.S. stocks. A similar environment could prove favorable for Bitcoin, Alden suggested. “If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well, even as the U.S. stock market doesn’t do particularly well,” she added.
In a previous research report published in September, Alden described Bitcoin as a “Global Liquidity Barometer,” noting it moves in sync with global M2 money supply 83% of the time over any given 12-month stretch.
As reported, 10x Research’s head of research Markus Thielen has argued that Bitcoin may be entering a period of extended consolidation. In a recent market note, Thielen warned that short-term technical signals are painting a more cautious picture, even as many analysts forecast new all-time highs by mid-year. Thielen pointed to the Bitcoin stochastic oscillator, a technical indicator that measures momentum, suggesting the market is displaying traits more consistent with a late-cycle top than the beginning of a new bull run. While Thielen urges caution, other analysts maintain a more bullish stance. Economists Timothy Peterson and Jamie Coutts, Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst, expect Bitcoin to hit new highs in Q2.
Last week, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reiterated his December prediction that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 before the close of 2025. Hougan argued that recent developments in U.S. trade policy, particularly under former President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff push, could act as tailwinds for Bitcoin.
Lyn Alden Says Bitcoin Would Be Higher if Not for Trump’s Tariff Shock
In the world of cryptocurrency and financial markets, few names have emerged as consistently insightful as that of Lyn Alden. As a renowned investment strategist, Alden has developed a reputation for her deep analysis of macroeconomic indicators, asset valuations, and the implications of government policies. One intriguing assertion she has made recently is that Bitcoin’s price performance could have been significantly better were it not for the tariff shocks initiated during Donald Trump’s presidency. This claim leads into a broader discussion about the interplay between macroeconomic policy and digital assets, particularly in the case of Bitcoin.
Understanding the Tariff Shock
During his tenure as president, Donald Trump implemented a series of tariffs on various imports, most notably against China. These tariffs were part of a broader strategy to reshape trade relationships and reduce the trade deficit. However, they also had rippling effects across the entire financial landscape, leading to increased production costs, heightened market uncertainty, and significant volatility in various asset classes.
Economists and financial analysts pointed out that these tariffs effectively functioned as a tax on consumers and businesses, leading to inflationary pressures. The unpredictability of trade policies also contributed to market volatility, where businesses struggled to plan and make long-term investments due to the uncertainty. In essence, the tariff shocks represented a significant macroeconomic event that fundamentally altered investor sentiment and behavior.
Bitcoin’s Rally Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, found itself rallying during the chaos ushered in by trade policies. The narrative around Bitcoin heightened; it became a popular investment for those looking to protect their wealth against the erosion posed by inflation and geopolitical unrest. However, according to Alden, the potential upside of Bitcoin—which had been gaining traction globally—was significantly hampered by these tariffs.
Alden argues that the uncertainty and subsequent economic conditions created by the tariffs dampened institutional investment in Bitcoin. Many institutional players, who typically favor assets with more predictable growth trajectories and lower volatility, retreated from cryptocurrency investments during this turbulent period. As institutional investment remains a cornerstone for Bitcoin’s valuation, any reduction in that influx directly correlated to the cryptocurrency’s stagnated price growth during key periods.
Macro Events and Market Sentiment
Understanding the complex relationship between macroeconomic events and market sentiment is crucial in analyzing Bitcoin’s price movements. Bitcoin is often described as a speculative asset, appealing to a mix of retail and institutional investors. However, when external factors—like tariff shocks—create market turmoil, they can distill investor psychology into a more risk-averse stance, pushing investors toward more traditional, safer assets like gold or government bonds.
Alden elaborates on how this behavior ties back to Bitcoin’s fundamentals. While many enthusiasts believe in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and scarcity (given its capped supply), macroeconomic shocks can distort its intended function as a store of value in the short term. When investors pull back from speculative assets during uncertain times, it creates a ripple effect that can suppress prices across the board, even for an asset like Bitcoin, which is often thought to thrive during economic crises.
Future Implications for Bitcoin
Looking ahead, Alden’s insights carry significant implications for how Bitcoin might perform in response to upcoming macroeconomic events. With the global economy in constant flux—impacting everything from inflation rates to fiscal policies—the landscape of cryptocurrency investments is bound to adapt. If tariffs or other trade-related policies were to resurface, or if geopolitical tensions were to escalate, Alden suggests that Bitcoin could once again face similar headwinds.
Conversely, as global markets stabilize and institutional investors regain their appetite for risk, the prospects for Bitcoin could improve markedly. This could usher in a new phase of growth for Bitcoin, potentially realizing valuations far beyond what has been achieved in the past few years. For enthusiasts and investors, the lesson is clear: macroeconomics plays a critical role in shaping the narrative and price trajectory of cryptocurrency.
Conclusion
The insights provided by Lyn Alden on the impact of Trump’s tariff policies on Bitcoin’s price trajectory highlight the intricate relationship between macroeconomic conditions and cryptocurrency markets. While Bitcoin has proven to be resilient in the face of numerous challenges, it remains sensitive to larger economic policies and market sentiments. As investors look to the future, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for making informed decisions in the ever-evolving world of digital assets. Bitcoin’s journey is not just one of technological innovation but also a reflection of the broader economic contexts that shape the financial landscape. The interdependence of trade policies, inflation, and asset valuation continues to remind us that in the world of finance, context is everything.
Lyn Alden has noted that Bitcoin’s price could have been higher if it weren’t for the impact of Trump’s tariffs. She argues that the uncertainty and economic disruptions caused by the tariff policies may have affected investor sentiment and market stability, which, in turn, influenced the valuation of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Alden emphasizes that external macroeconomic factors, such as trade policies and government actions, play a significant role in shaping market dynamics and can hinder the potential growth of digital assets like Bitcoin.