Every year, it is decided how much cod will be pulled out of the sea. In 2013, permission was granted to fish 1 million tonnes of cod. Until next year, only about half will be fished. Why this dramatic decline? There is far less cod in the sea. Dangerously low, many believe. – We are talking 90s level on the cod. This is the cod crisis all over again, says Tom Vegar Kiil, head of Norway’s Coastal Fishermen’s Association. – And this time we have entered the crisis with open eyes. He predicts several years of decline, sharp decline. This can have consequences for the fishermen and for the consumers. Fiskeribladet mentioned the case first. Tom Vegar Kiil says he has been warning about this for three years – and that we should have cut the quotas far more, earlier. Photo: Private Not aware of the responsibility Tom Vegar Kiil has long and wide experience from coastal fishing. He remembers the crisis from the 90s when the quota dropped to 160,000 tonnes. He believes that this is a new crisis, but that it differs from the previous crisis in that scientists have been warning for a long time. – The summary is that we as an industry have not taken the responsibility we should have taken, he says to news. There may be far less cod to fish, hang, dry, fry, boil, lye and, not least, eat in the coming years. Photo: Synnøve Sundby Fallmyr / news Kiil says he has tried for three years to give notice that the industry must deviate from the so-called rule of action. It states that it is not permitted to regulate the quotas up or down by more than 20 per cent a year. The rule must ensure predictability. He believes the rule has now ensured a new crisis. – Now the cod population has been on the way down for several years and the scientists have said what is necessary to achieve balance, he says and emphasizes: – We have actually fished 20 per cent more cod than we should have done. Then we know how it goes. Now this will have consequences for more people, he points out. According to the leader of the Norwegian Coastal Fishermen’s Association, we should have fished much less than we have done in recent years. Photo: Allan Klo So bad that the rule can be scrapped Marine researcher Bjarne Bogstad at the Institute of Marine Research agrees with Kiil that the researchers would have given lower quota advice in recent years if they had not had to comply with the action rule. It applies to the last three years. – Ideally, when it comes to how much of the stock it makes sense to harvest each year, we have been slightly above that in recent years. We wouldn’t have done that if we hadn’t had that rule with a maximum of 20 percent. In other words, the quotas would have been lower in 2022, 2023 and 2024 without the action rule. The rule is in place so that the industry will have a certain stability in catches and that the fishermen will be able to plan ahead in time. Photo: Synnøve Sundby Fallmyr / news If the situation gets bad enough, the rule of action can actually be scrapped. If the spawning stock of cod falls below 460,000 tonnes, the action rule will no longer apply. The researchers can then reduce the advice by more than 20 per cent. It could happen as early as 2025, says Bogstad. The spawning population is soon so low that the cuts may be even greater for the fishermen. Photo: Synnøve Sundby Fallmyr / news – Then our forecast shows that we will come very close to such a level. He therefore believes that the quotas will continue to decrease in the coming years. – Broadly speaking, we envision at least a 20 per cent decrease in 2025 as well. But then it will flatten out at that level. What is the reason for the decline? – It is because there are too few fry growing up, it has been like that for a number of years now, explains Bogstad. And there is something that surprises the researchers. – Usually it is the case that a high parent population and above average temperature in the sea has been positive for how many can grow up. But now we have had a few years with good parent stock and above average temperatures without so many cod having grown up. It is something that is high on the agenda for me and my colleagues to find out. In other words, Bogstad and his colleagues will use the nearest time to find out why more cod are not growing up. Photo: news – Are you worried about the cod population? – Yes, we are worried. But it’s not like it’s gotten worse and worse year by year. It has only fallen to a lower level, answers Bogstad and adds: – The population is on the way down, but the number of people who grow up does not go down straight away. It is more that it has fallen to a lower level in recent years than the period before. It has stabilized at a low level. The fishermen in Lofoten will probably have to settle for smaller quotas in the coming years. Photo: Sondre Skjelvik / news As usual, Norwegian researchers have arrived at a quota council together with their Russian colleagues. It has been more challenging than before because of the war in Ukraine. – Things are as they are. But we have good contact with our Russian colleagues, says Bogstad. Despite the poor state of the cod population, marine scientists do not fear a new “cod crisis” in the 1980s, writes Fiskeribladet. – Back then, it was largely driven by solder collapse. Both capelin and other alternative food are now available, says specialist director Geir Huse at the Institute of Marine Research. Fearing young fishermen will be severely punished Kiil in Norway’s Coastal Fishing Association says the first strike will come next year. Before it can get even worse. – We need tools that ensure that we do not end up in this situation again and again. – Who do you fear will be hit hardest by this? – Those with a lot of debt. Those who have entered the industry and been part of a long upswing, he says and continues: – I hope there are not many young people out there who are in sole proprietorships and go bankrupt. Then they can be left with bottomless debt that they have to pay off over a large part of their lives. If cod becomes twice as expensive, will you still buy it? Fewer fish coming out of the sea could mean that the prices of cod go up. This will help to cover some of the quota loss for the fishermen, but will hit consumers hard. – Maybe someone will continue to eat the fish if it becomes expensive. But we can also get to the point where we are not allowed to sell the fish. – If the price has to be doubled, how many people eat cod? asks Kiil in conclusion.
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Lowest quotas in 16 years – new cod crisis predicted – news Nordland
