The lesson is as old as the history of war: Never trust mercenaries. Despite all his historical interpretations, it may appear that Vladimir Putin has forgotten or overlooked this all-important knowledge. Mercenaries can be effective weapons on the battlefield, but if things go wrong, they can turn on you. The drama of what we are now witnessing in Russia can hardly be exaggerated. Thousands of highly trained Russian mercenaries have left the front line in Ukraine and are heading for the Russian capital Moscow, while their leader has harshly criticized the country’s leadership. It’s almost like you have to stop, take a break from the dramatic updates and let it sink in. Rebellion against Putin’s power Russia’s president threw it all in during his televised speech on Saturday morning. He understood the seriousness and warned of the threat of civil war. This was not just a revolt against his military leaders, it was a revolt against Putin’s power, and through that the central power that holds the entire mighty Russian Empire together. NOT SO GOOD FRIENDS: Yevgeny Prigozhin has been a close ally of Vladimir Putin for a number of years, but has now turned against him. Putin has announced severe punishment against Prigozhin. Photo: AP The Wagner Group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has in recent weeks expressed harsher and harsher criticism of the Russian leadership. There has not only been criticism of the way the war in Ukraine has been conducted, it has gone even deeper. In sometimes crude language, he has challenged the way the war has been justified, its very ideological basis. The criticism has mainly been aimed at the top management of the Russian defence, not Putin directly, but this looks more and more like an attempted coup aimed directly at the entire regime. Two important questions There are two things that will determine how this goes on: One is whether Prigozhin has support in the Russian state apparatus and the elite. Is this a well-prepared coup attempt that extends far behind the walls of the Kremlin, or a pure challenge from the outside? If he has support, we could face rapid changes. If he doesn’t, Prigozijin’s position is more vulnerable. In that case, he is dependent on his soldiers making rapid progress towards Moscow. The second is how ordinary Russians and the country’s rank-and-file soldiers and lower officers will relate to what is now happening. It can be particularly important if this drags on over time. How much do people really know about the war in Ukraine and what do they really think about the way Putin rules Russia? The cause of Putin’s problems The next few days and hours will give us the answer to where Russian loyalties lie. We are faced with several possible scenarios. This could be put down relatively quickly, and Prigozhin could be killed or arrested, but we also cannot rule out a prolonged internal conflict or even a change of power in Moscow. Should Putin get through this, it will be as a weakened leader anyway. Never in his more than twenty years as Russian head of state has he been challenged in this way. The cause of his problems is the great war he himself initiated against his neighboring country Ukraine.
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Lessons of destiny in Russia – Speech
