On Sunday, people in Colombia go to the polls to elect a new president. According to opinion polls, the election could lead to a historic change in Colombian politics. Gustavo Petro is the first candidate from the left since the 1940s with a real chance to win a presidential election, says Colombia expert Elizabeth Dickinson from the think tank International Crisis Group, to NRK. Popular: According to Reuters, Petro leads the polls with around 40 percent of the vote. Photo: LUISA GONZALEZ / Reuters The favorite in the polls, Gustavo Petro, belonged to the urban guerrilla group M-19 in the 70s and 80s, and was imprisoned for a period for storing weapons for the group. According to Dickinson, there are two things in particular that have opened up a new political situation in Colombia: social unrest and the peace agreement. Fragile peace Fading hope: In 2016, support for the peace agreement was higher than today, according to the International Crisis Group. Photo: Ivan Valencia / Labor Party In 2016, the Colombian authorities entered into a peace agreement with the guerrilla group FARC. Before that, the conflict in the country caused the political left to struggle with stigma and associations with the guerrillas, according to Dickinson. – The peace agreement has certainly been crucial to open up for more participation and support for the political left in Colombia, she says. Last hope: Analyst Elizabeth Dickinson of the International Crisis Group believes the presidential election is the last chance of the peace agreement Photo: International Crisis Group Nevertheless, in recent years Colombia has struggled with new waves of violence, as well as economic and social unrest. According to the Red Cross, 2021 was the most violent year in Colombia since the parties signed the peace agreement. Wave of violence: Indigenous leader Jose Albeiro Camayo was killed by FARC dissidents in January this year. Photo: LUIS ROBAYO / AFP – Confidence in the state and its ability to implement the points in the peace agreement has plummeted. The hope is that a new president will be able to set a new course, but this is really the last opportunity for the peace agreement, Dickinson says to NRK. Rising poverty Ciudad Bolivar: the district south of the capital Bogotá is inhabited mainly by poor families displaced by the conflict in Colombia. Photo: YURI CORTEZ / AFP In a country with great economic and social differences, Petro’s popularity has increased in recent years in line with the growing dissatisfaction in Colombia. According to the World Bank, 40 percent lived below the poverty line in 2020. Colombia is also one of the world’s most skewed societies. Protest: In 2021, large-scale demonstrations broke out across Colombia. Photo: LUISA GONZALEZ / Reuters In recent years, there have been major protests against the current government’s economic policy. Petro was one of the leaders in the protests. He is not an unknown name in Colombian politics. Previously, he has been both senator and rapporteur in the capital Bogotá. Professor Benedicte Bull, at the Center for Environment and Development, UiO Photo: Anja Bergersen / UIO – He still does not represent the classic political elite in Latin America, and can be more reminiscent of Mexico’s incumbent President López Obrador, explains professor of political science at the University of Oslo, Benedicte Bull. Meets “protest candidate” The Colombian presidential election is similar to the French. If no candidate gets 50 percent in the first round, the election goes to a second round in June. According to opinion polls, Petro is likely to face Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez. He is a center-right candidate and a so-called “protest alternative” to Petro’s growing popularity, Bull explains. Number two: Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez is set to become Petro’s challenger in the second round. Photo: LUISA GONZALEZ / Reuters – Petro occasionally struggled as mayor of Bogotá, and several have questioned whether he is able to govern Colombia in a good and unifying way. As president, he will face a difficult political constellation. The danger that he wants a lot, but gets little done, is unfortunately high, Bull explains. Hoping for change Noguera is studying in Norway, but is actively following the presidential election on May 29 in Colombia. Photo: Mathias Moene Rød / NRK One of those who will vote for Petro is Colombian Oscar Dario Guerra Noguera (29). He is currently studying in Norway. Noguera comes from Cali, one of the cities incumbent President Iván Duque cracked down on most during the national protests last year. Now he hopes for systematic change. In flames: In Cali, more people were killed in clashes between authorities and protesters in 2021 during the “Paro Nacional” (national strike) Photo: Fernando Vergara / AP – I think the big protests last year were really an eye opener for many Colombians . When people are willing to die in the streets to stand up for change, they will certainly also go and vote when they now have the opportunity, Noguera tells NRK. He has also previously voted for Petro, and believes the presidential candidate for decades has shown that he fights against corruption, and for the weak in society. – Together with their vice presidential candidate, Francia Marquéz, they represent something other than the established political elite that has always ruled Colombia. It is time for a change, says Noguera. Standing together: Presidential candidate Gustavo Petro is on stage with his vice-presidential candidate Francia Marquéz. Photo: Fernando Vergara / AP Murder threats and racial discussion The election campaign has occasionally been overshadowed by new waves of violence and death threats against the presidential candidates. Nevertheless, it is Petro’s vice presidential candidate who has stolen several of the international headlines. The Afro-Colombian minority woman and award-winning environmental activist, Francia Marquéz, has become a national phenomenon in just a few months. Symbolic figure: The BBC has previously included Francia Marquéz in its top list “BBC’s hundred women for 2019” Photo: LUISA GONZALEZ / Reuters At the age of 16, she was a single mother and worked as a domestic worker. The 41-year-old’s candidacy for vice president has now started a debate about class and race in Colombia, according to Professor Benedicte Bull. – Marquéz has become an important symbolic figure in the fight for the poor, women and minorities. Cases many in Colombia have previously been killed for, says Bull. Uncertain future for peace Disarmed: In 2016, the guerrilla group FARC handed in its weapons. Now many fear that the peace agreement will not last. Photo: LUIS ROBAYO / AFP Dickinson from the International Crisis group believes that Marquéz’s contribution to a government will lift parts of the peace agreement that have received little focus since the signing. – I think especially the least implemented parts of the peace agreement that deals with ethnicity and gender, will have a renewed focus with Petro and Marquéz. Fear of return: The military with presence before the election in 2014. A total of five presidential candidates in Colombia have been killed in modern times. Now more people fear that the violence is on its way back. Photo: Santiago Cortez / Labor Professor Bull is a little more cautious in his optimism, and points out that the peace agreement probably had better conditions for success six years ago than now. – No matter who wins, this is an unfortunate time to come to power. When the price of gas, oil and food skyrockets as it does now, the popularity of the incumbent president always declines.
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– Last opportunity for the peace agreement – NRK Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
