This is shown in a fresh report from the company Samfunnskonkoniks Analyse. – The decline in house prices affects those who are inside and those who are outside the market very differently. That’s what Andreas Benedictow, social economist at the company, says. – Those who own a home will have lower wealth. For those who have not bought a home yet, the entry ticket to the market will now be cheaper. Signs that things are turning around – We are now drawing a more gloomy picture. That both with regard to the international and Norwegian economy, as well as the housing market, says Benedictow. Both the international and national economy have a lot to say about developments in the housing market. Housing prices have increased throughout 2022. Now, Samfunnseconomics Analysis believes that there are several signs that the trend will turn around: Fewer new homes are sold Fewer holiday homes are sold High construction costs lead to reduced profitability in new buildings First-time buyers are struggling (especially in Oslo) First-time buyers like to buy together with others (in the whole country) It is only now that people will actually notice the interest rate increase Socioeconomic Analysis points to several reasons why housing prices will probably fall in the coming time. Photo: Vegard Wivestad Grøtt / NTB Highest price growth in four counties Although house prices in Oslo and throughout the country are expected to fall in 2023, they will rise towards 2025, according to the report. From 2022 to 2025, price growth will be highest in the following counties: Oslo Rogaland Agder Nordland Inland is the county with the lowest price growth in the housing market until 2025, the report is to be believed. But before prices rise, it should become cheaper to buy a home. The biggest drop in prices is expected in Oslo. This is because the residents of Oslo have a high level of debt, and thus feel the interest rate increases particularly well. – The annual growth rates imply an overall price drop of around 10 per cent in Oslo from now until 2023. For Norway as a whole, the drop will be around 8 per cent. But if we look at 2023 in isolation, house prices are expected to fall by 3.5 per cent nationally and 5 per cent in Oslo. Apartment building on Tjuvholmen in Oslo. Photo: Ingrid Emilie Waaler / news Difficult to be precise In August, DNB Markets released a report which also discussed the development in housing prices. The report states that there will probably be a period of falling prices. At the same time, they write that homes will become more expensive again in the second half of 2023. – We estimate that house prices will rise by 5.2 per cent this year, be flat in 2023 and then rise by just over 2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, the report states . They also still believe in a decline in house prices, says macroeconomist Oddmund Berg at DNB. – The high price increase, as well as sharp increases in interest rates, will probably dampen the demand for housing as well. With a longer period of fairly good price development behind us, it is therefore natural to imagine that there may be a fall in the period ahead. But there is great uncertainty associated with the analyses. – We are in a situation where there are many things happening in the world economy and here at home. We are probably facing a rather strong turnaround from the growth phase we had after reopening, to weaker development as a result of high price growth and interest rate increases. There is always uncertainty associated with price forecasts, says Andreas Benedictow from Samfunnskonkonik Analyse. Photo: Håkon Mosvold Larsen / NTB Andreas Benedictow in Societal Economic Analysis also believes that it is extra difficult to make such forecasts now. He cites the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and the high price increase as important factors. – This makes it difficult to say anything for sure. We use our best models and our best judgement, he adds.
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Large price drop on housing throughout the country – news Norway – Overview of news from various parts of the country
