The case in summary: Kamala Harris has experienced a marked improvement in the opinion polls in important American swing states, and is now half a percentage point ahead in the average polls. Harris and her running mate Tim Walz have a clear 4-percentage-point lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to the latest New York Times and Siena College poll. US expert Eirik Løkke describes Harris’ progress as “completely unique” and believes she has had a “flying start”. Trump’s advisers are advised to focus on the economy, immigration and crime to reverse the trend. Independent Ropert Kennedy Jr. seems to steal more voters from Trump than from Harris. The summary is made by an AI service from OpenAi. The content is quality assured by news’s journalists before publication. The election will be decided on Thursday 5 November. A month ago, President and then Trump opponent Joe Biden was 3 percentage points behind. Kamala Harris is now half a percentage point ahead in the Real Clear Politics average polls. These are measurements that only consider the seven important swing states of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. This is where many believe the election will be decided. These numbers are within the margins of error and can swing either way, but it shows a clear trend in all the polls: Kamala Harris and her vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz have real wind in their sails. Progress in important states It is perhaps clearest in the latest poll from the New York Times and Siena College. Because while Harris has been on a campaign tour in many of these states, she has built up a clear lead of 4 percentage points in both Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in this survey. In all three states, 50 percent of respondents say they support Harris, while 46 percent say they would vote for Trump. The measurement was made between Monday and Friday last week. That is, after Harris had appointed Walz as his vice-presidential candidate. More than 600 people were asked in each of the three states, and the margin of error is between 4.2 and 4.8 percentage points. Also on the slightly less important average measurements from across the US, Harris is a couple of percentage points ahead of Trump, according to the number crunchers at FiveThirtyEight. – Completely unique – She really got off to a “flying start” and has the momentum now, says USA expert Eirik Løkke in the Civita think tank. – There has been a marked change in mood in the Democratic Party from a doomsday mood with Joe Biden to a completely new energy with Harris. It is completely unique and something I have never experienced in such a short time in American politics before, says Løkke. And he has followed for a few years. – With the election of Tim Walz, she appears as a real alternative to Trump, and she has not yet made any major missteps, says Are Tågvold Flaten, editor at Amerkanskpolitikk.no. He also believes that this trend will continue for a while. – We will probably see this type of measurement through the Democrats’ national meeting next week. Then the question is how long until Harris faces his first major problems, says Flaten. Some states more important than others There are many opinion polls in the US and they vary quite a bit, but both Løkke and Flaten probably think that Harris and her supporters are most satisfied with the poll that was published in the New York Times. – If the result is in November, she will win the election, says Løkke. – It is natural to look at the measurements in Pennsylvania. She has made tremendous progress there in the last month. And if she wins the three states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, she will win the election, says Flaten. Donald Trump in a familiar pose at one of his many election campaign meetings. This is in Montana on Friday last week. Photo: Reuters “Trump should focus on one thing” But what about Trump, the man who a short time ago seemed to be cruising to an easy electoral victory? Now he’s on the heel, how will he turn it around? – That’s the thing about Trump that he is his own worst enemy, says Løkke. – What he should do is stop his procrastination. Do not talk about the size of election campaign events and rather focus on the economy. Ask a simple populist question: “Were you better off financially with me as president or not?” But he won’t be able to do that, says Løkke. He is absolutely sure that this is precisely what Trump’s advisers are now also trying to achieve, but … – Trump is Trump, and no historical data indicates that he will change. – Focus on the economy, immigration and crime, are Flaten’s tips for Trump. – He has a much better campaign apparatus behind him now than he had in 2020, and they have probably seen some weaknesses in Harris. The struggle to be the underdog Ever since Harris came on the field, she has wanted to appear as something other than her boss Joe Biden. At the same time, Trump has been in a challenger position, so now the battle is a bit about who emerges as the most credible underdog. – Trump is in opposition and does not sit at the table. Harris wants to appear as something new and different, so both want to be an outsider and underdog, says Flaten. Mister vote for Kennedy Jr. Another interesting point about last week’s polls is that the third candidate, independent Ropert Kennedy Jr., appears to be stealing more voters from Trump than from Harris. This is shown by a review carried out by the Washington Post. They have gone through six different opinion polls, all of which show the same trend. Voters go from Trump to Kennedy Jr. to a greater extent. than from Harris. Earlier this summer, when Joe Biden was at the top of the Democrats’ election campaign ticket, the trend was exactly the opposite. Then voters from the Democratic Party went to Kennedy Jr. – This would probably have been a more important point if Biden was still in the game. Then Kennedy Jr. seen as an alternative, now it’s probably not that relevant, says Flaten. It will all be decided on Thursday 5 November. The Republicans Donald Trump Born on 14 June 1946 in Queens in New York The Republican presidential candidate Married to Melania Trump. Five children from three marriages Studied economics at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania Started in the company of his father, real estate magnate Fred Trump. Established his own property business and eventually took over his father’s as well. Bought up airlines and casinos, and eventually became very rich. His companies had to be refinanced after financial problems in the early 1990s. In 1987 expressed an interest in entering politics. In 1999, he tried to be nominated as a presidential candidate for the Reform Party, but withdrew. He also considered running for president in 2004 and 2012. In 2015, he threw himself into the Republican nomination battle. To the surprise of many, he won the election in November 2016. Lost the election in 2020 to Joe Biden and has since claimed that the election was stolen from him. Indicted in a number of cases, including for trying to overturn the election results in Georgia in 2020. Was recently found guilty of 34 violations of the Accounting Act in connection with the payment of so-called hush money to a porn actor. Survived an assassination attempt in July this year Source: NTBJD Vance Born in Middleton, Ohio on August 2, 1984. His original name was James Donald Bowman, but changed his name to James David with the surname Vance, his mother’s maiden name, after his parents divorced. Nominated as the vice-presidential candidate for the RepublicansEnlisted in the US Marines after high school. Served in Iraq during the Iraq war. Studied political science and philosophy at Ohio State University and later law at the top university Yale. Worked in a law firm and later in an investment fund in California. Married to Usha Vance, whom he met at Yale. Her parents are Indian immigrants, and as recently as 2014 she was a registered Democrat. Wrote the best-selling autobiography “Hillbilly’s Lament” in 2016, in which he described his poor upbringing and family background. The book was made into a film in 2020, and the film was nominated for an Oscar. Harsh critic of Trump during the 2016 election campaign. However, changed his mind in 2020 and then became a strong supporter of Trump. Elected senator for Ohio in 2022 for the Republicans. Source: NTB Democrats Kamela HarrisBorn 20 October 1964 in Oakland, California. Has an Indian mother and a Jamaican father The Democrats’ presidential candidate for the autumn presidential election Vice-president of the United States since January 20, 2021 – the first woman in the role, as well as the first non-white Graduated in law from Howard University in Washington DC and the University of California. Became state attorney in San Francisco in 2004Became the first black woman elected attorney general in California in 2010, a position she held until 2017, when she became a senator for the DemocratsAnnounced in January 2019 that she would try to become the party’s presidential candidate, but withdrew in December and gave his support to Biden Has worked, among other things, on health policy, democracy and weapons policy as a senator and vice president Was mentioned as a possible justice minister under President Barack Obama, as well as a possible judge on the US Supreme Court Married to lawyer Douglas Emhoff Source: NTBTim Walz Born in West Point, Nebraska in 1964. Elected to vice-presidential candidate for the Democrats Worked as a teacher and football coach before he started politics. Has also served in the US National Guard. Was first elected as a member of Congress in the House of Representatives in 2006 and served for six terms. Since 2019 has been governor of the Democrat-dominated state of Minnesota, where he has lived since 1996. Has distinguished himself in the fight for women’s rights and is considered to have a broad appeal with white voters in the districts. Published 12.08.2024, at 19.16
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