Today, six judges continue to vote on ex-president Jair Bolsonaro’s (68) political fate in Brazil. So far, one judge has voted. He believes Jair Bolsonaro is guilty of abuse of power and unfit for political office until 2030. By then Bolsonaro will be 75 years old. Judge Benedito Goncalves in Brazil’s highest electoral court believes the former president is guilty of abuse of power and that he is unfit for political office for the next eight years. Photo: Sergio Lima / AFP – It probably puts an end to his own political career, but he has a family and three sons, says Einar Braathen. He is an expert on Brazil and researches international politics at Oslo Met University. Between 20 and 25 percent of the population still support Bolsonaro, opinion polls show. The right-wing populist ex-president lost the presidential election to the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula de Silva last October. “Cheating,” claimed the Christian Bolsonaro. – Many believe that depriving him of his political rights for eight years is punishment enough. If you put Bolsonaro in prison, he will immediately have the status of a martyr. It can be destabilizing if an ex-president, with so much support in the population, is put in prison, says Braathen. The very conservative, evangelical Christian and anti-liberal current that Bolsonaro stands for will live on for many years, says the Oslo Met researcher. – In Brazil, this current has been given the christening name “Bolsonarism”. “Bolsonarism” is here to stay, he says. Oslo Met researcher Einar Braathen believes the Bolsonaro supporters are here to stay. Photo: OsloMet – Awakened conspiracy theories The trial against Bolsonaro is the first of 16 cases against him in the country’s highest electoral court (TSE), which is subordinate to the Supreme Court. The Court deals with allegations of fraud in the electoral system and other breaches of electoral legislation. – In this case, Bolsonaro summoned ambassadors to the presidential palace to run an election campaign. It is extremely serious to abuse presidential power in this way, says Braathen at Oslo Met. Bolsonaro stood in front of the diplomats and criticized Brazil’s electronic voting system three months before the election. The speech was broadcast live on state TV and radio channels for over an hour. – Bolsonaro used the meeting with the ambassadors to spread doubt and raise conspiracy theories, said judge Benedito Goncalves on Tuesday, who is leading the case in court. This is how Bolsonaro was prosecuted for having cast doubt on the electoral system and for abusing the state’s communication channels to run his own election campaign. The protagonist himself denies having done anything wrong. – I do not want to lose my political rights. I have no idea whether I will be a candidate in the local elections next year or run for the Senate or as a presidential candidate in 2026. But to be a candidate I must retain my political rights, he said last week. Ex-president Jair Bolsonaro met his supporters after a meeting of the Social Liberal Party (PSC) on Friday last week. Photo: SILVIO AVILA / AFP – Like pouring fuel on the fire That Bolsonaro will probably be found guilty of abuse of power today is expected, says Nupi researcher Lucas de Oliveira Paes. – He has committed clear electoral offences. This case is just the beginning as he has several against him. He has abused the government apparatus, says Paes, who is himself from Brazil. Nupi researcher Lucas de Oliveira Paes believes that Bolsonaro could receive martyr status among his supporters if he is punished by the legal system in Brazil. Photo: NUPI – It is important that he receives a proper punishment in the legal system. But the political risk is that he will be made a martyr. It is like pouring fuel on the fire for his supporters, who believe that there is some kind of deep state working against him, says Paes. Former president Donald Trump in the United States has also spoken about the so-called deep state, and claimed that employees in the bureaucracy have worked in secret to take away his power. If Bolsonaro is found guilty, it is difficult to say how his supporters will react. – We do not know how many of his supporters will remain loyal after he is found guilty, nor how many will engage in a public movement to contest the decision, says Paes. – In the short term it can lead to instability, but in the long term it is important to show that no one is above the law. The Nupi researcher believes that Bolsonaro and his supporters have been lying low in recent weeks to avoid stirring up the judges before the decision. – Since Bolsonaro has no public office now, he is more exposed to being convicted of other offences. He can naturally be afraid of that, so it is logical that he does not give as many speeches as he usually does, he says. – Prison sentence can give martyr status In addition to the 16 election campaign cases, Bolsonaro is being investigated for having encouraged the storming of the presidential palace, Congress and the Supreme Court in the capital Brasília on 8 January this year. It is criminally more serious. Several thousand supporters of the former president Jair Bolsonaro took part in the undemocratic action in the capital Brasília in January. The military police only watched as the demonstration turned violent. – The big elephant in the room is the 8 January riots, which were simply an attempted coup, says Einar Braathen at Oslo Met. – It is much more serious to prepare a coup with the aim of abolishing democracy, than to spread contempt for the judicial system. In the coup case, he risks a prison sentence, says the researcher. Recently, it became known that Brazilian police have found a detailed plan for a military coup on the phone of one of Bolsonaro’s personal assistants. A similar document has also been found at the home of former Justice Minister Anderson Torres. – The Minister of Justice probably did not have coup plans without Bolsonaro’s approval. Bolsonaro had strong control over people, says Braathen, and continues: – So far around 1,000 people have been detained after the storming. It is expected that between 500 and 600 will be brought before the court, according to Braathen. Bolsonaro’s supporters wanted a military coup after Bolsonaro lost the election to Lula last October. Bolsonaro claimed it was election fraud. Photo: ERALDO PERES Can appeal to the Supreme Court If Bolsonaro is convicted of abuse of power on Thursday, he can appeal to the country’s highest court. There, the judges will decide whether the verdict is upheld or not. If he cannot stand as a presidential candidate in 2026, his wife Michelle could be an alternative, Bolsonaro himself has told newspaper Folha de S. Paulo in Brazil. But she has no political experience, he admitted. Thousands of Bolsonaro supporters participated in the anti-democratic riots in the capital Brasília on January 8 this year. Photo: ERALDO PERES / AP
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Judge requests that Brazil’s ex-president Jair Bolsonaro be banned from politics – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
