Although the bourgeois are clearly leading in the polls, most things are unclear on the bourgeois side. And who will actually assemble the blue team? She they promote strong criticism against? Noise, crises and troubled times notwithstanding. Norwegian politics is surprisingly stable. In any case, we must believe the message from the voters in Norstat’s latest survey for news and Aftenposten. The governing parties are struggling hard, and there are no signs of a turning point. Ap goes back and gets 17.8 percent in this survey. The only bright spot is that both Sp and Ap have very many voters on the fence. There is a solid bourgeois majority in the Storting, even with the KrF below the blocking limit. Høyre seems stable again after the share scandal, and is in a special position as Norway’s largest party. FRP has the greatest progress and SV the greatest decline. Everything is within the margin of error. National party barometer February 2024 What would you vote for if there were a parliamentary election? Compared to the measurement for January.Party SupportChange26.5%H−0.317.8%AP−1.614.3%FRP+2.29.5%SV−1.96.8%SP+1.16.6%V+0, 65.3%R+0.43.7%KRF03.6%MDG+0.32.6%INP−0.73.3%Andre0Click on the party circle to see the full party name. Based on 1,000 interviews conducted in the period 6.2.24–11.2.24. Margins of error from 1.2–3.2 pp. Source: Norstat Since the last measurement, the INP has split. Norstat has checked whether the INP voters are aware of this. The new party DNI does not get measurable support. The center is dead There is nothing left of the community that the center once was. That Sp, Venstre and KrF have been a kind of political best friends who shared some values and even ruled the country together seems like a distant dream. The Left has declared the Center Party as its main competitor. Where Sp is a recognizable district party, Venstre is increasingly pure as an urban party. But KrF and Venstre have also drifted sharply apart. While the last remnants of the rural Left seem to have been abandoned, KrF has realized that questions of value are the party’s specialty. Today, Venstre is the most liberal party in matters such as drugs, surrogacy and gender. In these questions, the KrF is closer to the Center Party. But the relationship with the Conservative Party stands like a Berlin Wall between the two old centrist comrades. Recently, KrFU leader Hadle Rasmus Bjuland opened up about scrapping the Liberals in government. Although the door slamming was hardly rooted in KrF’s party leadership, it was mostly received with chuckles and indifferent shrugs in the Liberal Party. The lack of appetite for cooperation seems to be mutual. And the two old best friends seem to be enjoying themselves. The left is doing well on many measures. They are visible and active in the Storting, even if politically they are in the valley of the shadows. And there are almost no internal conflicts to be heard about. Not even from reliable sources in the Left. It would be an exaggeration to say that KrF dominates Norwegian politics during the day, but at least it has not met the swift death that many predicted. Bearing in mind that they lost many during the harrowing general election and only have representatives from Southern and Western Norway, they are holding on surprisingly well. The fight against the barrier continues. But diesel was not dead The winner of this survey is the Progress Party. After leaving the prison, to which Sylvi Listhaug compared the Solberg government, she has run after all the balls and has not spared the outside vote. For a long time it did not seem to impress the voters. Shaking off the gray and boring stamp they gave themselves after the collaboration with Venstre and KrF in government took time. Now the measurements have loosened. The party has had a rising form curve, and with 14.3 per cent, the FRP now has one of its strongest polls for a long time. A bonus is that the party does very well among young voters, especially among young men. It probably helps that both SP and Rødt have lost their grip on protest voters. The emergence of the Industrial and Business Party has shown the room that lies in being an alternative in climate and business policy. The bumps in the road for the green shift have made it visible. Investment in offshore wind in the blue, failed green industrial ventures and electric buses that are stuck in the cold and snow have made the “what was it we said job” easier for the FRP. And if the industrial parties (in the majority) also fail, then even more of the job is done. The hippopotamus in the room The big uncertainty in the bourgeois is still Sylvi Listhaug herself. Nobody quite knows what she wants with the FRP. A collaboration with KrF and Venstre seems unlikely. After they ruled together, Venstre and Frp were almost caught in slamming doors again and blaming each other for attrition, member flight, bad atmosphere and crumbling credibility. Not quite unlike how voices in Ap and Sp today blame each other for bad polls. But will Listhaug really take the party back into government? Or would she rather cultivate the party as a kind of protest party, for which there is obviously good soil in Norwegian politics these days? This doubt is voiced by many, both within and outside their own party. The Queen of the Rings An initially simple question has also become a headache for the bourgeois. Who will be your prime ministerial candidate? KrF leader Olaug Bollestad is the only one who has pointed to Erna Solberg. The control committee at the Storting is horse-trading these days and fine-tuning how strong the criticism against Solberg will be after the man’s share trading. It has been considered an important touchstone for whether the Liberal Party and FRP have confidence in her as a candidate for prime minister. The FRP has been silent, while Young Venstre leader Ane Breivik stated in the autumn that it was obvious that Solberg could not be prime minister of the bourgeois. In the corners, there were several people who shared their thoughts about opening the door for Solberg without saying it out loud. They might be happy about it today. Because what is the alternative? Guri Melby has clarified that she is not a prime ministerial candidate with today’s support. In any case, it seems inconceivable that KrF and Frp will point to her. It is equally unlikely that the Liberal Party will point to Sylvi Listhaug or Olaug Bollestad as “my prime minister”. Is there enough pragmatism in the world to unite Listhaug’s outside vote, Melby’s drug liberalism and Bollestad’s “warm values”? In any case, it is difficult to see that anyone other than Erna Solberg can collect and bind them. With or without ring. Representatives in the StortingRepresentatives in the Storting according to the February survey. Compared to today’s Storting.HøyreH48+12ArbeiderpartietAP35−13FremskrittspartietFRP27+6Socialist Liberal PartySV17+4SenterpartietSP14−14VenstreV12+4RødtR10+2Christian People’s PartyKRF30Environmental Party De GreenMDG2−1Industrial and Business PartyINP1+1AndreANDRE00−11000 interviews conducted in the period 6.2.24–11 .2.24. Margins of error from 1.2–3.2 pp. Source: Norstat
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It was perhaps not a good idea to slam the doors so hard – Statement
