– It was mined by Russian occupiers. And they blew it up, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media. Russia, for its part, blamed Ukraine for having damaged the dam with its weapons during fighting in the area, and claims that this is what caused the breach. But is it possible for the dam to collapse for other reasons? Pictures from the villages upstream just a few weeks ago show people sitting at the kitchen table with water up to their legs. FLOODING: Late in May, Ihor Medunov showed a Reuters photographer that his house on an island in the water reservoir above the Kakhovka dam was flooded. Natalia Medunova, who is married to Ihor, served coffee with the water splashing around her waders. Photo: Bernadett Szabo / Reuters The couple went about their daily lives as best they could, just like their neighbors, while the water rose dangerously. Ukrainian authorities said the flood was due to Russia’s (lack of) control over the Kakhovka dam. It is said to have suffered damage that was not repaired for several months. The water reservoir at the Kakhovka dam stretches for many miles along the Dnipro River. The Russian-backed local authorities claimed that the dam was badly managed and that the water level was far too high. It is difficult for foreign media to verify these claims and previous information has been shown to be characterized by propaganda. At the same time, several have pointed to structural defects on the dam, and that there are actually signs that it has been hit by something from the outside. news has spoken to professor of hydropower constructions at NTNU, Leif Lia, about what it takes to bring down a dam of Kakhovka’s caliber. – Open sabotage – It is open, technically speaking, that it must be an act of sabotage, says Lia to news. He, like the rest of the professional community, refers to the facility as a dam, and says there are many natural loads that could, in theory, lead to a collapse like this. Graphics: Eirik Kirkaune / news Then there is a question of minor leaks through the ground under the dam, aging damage which means that the facility cannot tolerate the load it was built for, or collapses. – But that is a very rare case. In addition, Lia says that the course of events here is different. – It started with damage at many different places in the plant. Both the power station and the dam. – So it is quite clear that someone has tried to demolish the entire facility, so that it is a total loss with major damage also downstream due to the flume water. There is a formidable scope of damage here. EI VILJA ACTION: Large amounts of water flow out of the destroyed pond. The picture is from yesterday. Photo: AFP At the same time, he believes that combat actions from the outside, such as shooting and the use of less explosives, would never be enough to cause such great damage on their own. – Norwegian dams, for example, are built in all cases so that breaches cannot occur. If you get a serious injury, there must be other mechanisms that take care of it. Americans believe in an explosion American experts tell The New York Times that there is very little data about what has happened to the dam. But they believe that the most likely thing is that there has been an explosion inside the building. An overflowing area in the city of Kherson. Photo: AP It is a massive construction of steel and concrete that was completed in 1956. And Russian forces had control over the dam. According to the newspaper, local residents have said that they heard a powerful explosion at night at 03:00. And even if the explosives were placed on the inside, several hundred kilograms would be needed to cause the devastation shown in the photos. A bomb or rocket from the outside would not have the same effect. – It is not even certain that a direct hit would destroy the dam, says Nick Glumac to The New York Times. EVACUATE: Volunteers help in the affected areas. Photo: Reuters He is a blasting expert and teaches engineering at the University of Illinois. During the war, the dam plant was hit and damaged several times. But the American experts doubt that the damage would be enough to cause a collapse. – Dams break, it is absolutely possible, says Gregory B. Baecher, who teaches engineering at the University of Maryland. He has also studied what happens to dams that fail. But he doubts that is the case with the pond in Kakhovka. – I looked at this and thought that it looks suspicious. Big increase in the water level Figures from the observer website Hydroweb show that the water level in the reservoir was over one meter higher at the end of May than at the same time last year. The town of Nova Kakhovka is particularly hard hit by the flooding. Photo: Reuters This is the highest it has been since it was started to be measured in 2016. Lia thinks it seems that the flume run has not been used. – I have looked at that facility, and it has 26 hatches to let the water pass when there is too much water in the reservoir. But if someone overfilled the magazine on purpose, and also carried out an act of sabotage, this could be the explanation for the great destruction, says Lia. – In any case, it is a willful act. No responsible dam operator would think of allowing the water to rise without operating the flume channel by all available means.
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