After a drama worthy of Richard Wagner’s operas, moods have calmed down in Russia. Russian authorities confirmed on Saturday evening that an agreement was in place between them and Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. It was negotiated by Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko. The details of the agreement are currently unclear, but among the main points is that Prigozhin must move to Belarus. We do not know whether the Wagner chief’s demand to replace the central defense leadership was met. Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has been a close supporter of Russian President Putin. He himself announced that he had negotiated a deal with Wagner on Saturday night. Photo: VLADIMIR SMIRNOV / AFP The Kremlin also announced that no Wagner soldiers would be prosecuted. Nor Prigozhin. – This was quite unfortunate for Putin. He is now weakened. This shows that you can easily get away with quite unforgivable actions, says Tor Bukkvoll to news. Senior researcher Tor Bukkvoll at FFI has studied political developments in Russia since the 1990s, and has researched private military actors such as Wagner for a long time. Photo: FFI The senior researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute believes that in the long term Prigozhin is now living dangerously. Many murders and attempted murders In Russia, people who come into conflict with the authorities have on several occasions ended their days in violent ways. It is often said that being a journalist or lawyer is one of the most dangerous professions one can have in Russia. According to the Helsinki Committee, these deaths are poorly investigated. The well-known opposition politician Alexei Navalny was close to death when he was poisoned with a nerve agent on a plane in 2020. The Putin critic Boris Nemtsov was shot on a bridge in Moscow in 2015. The country’s richest, the so-called oligarchs, also often live dangerously. One was found hanged, but the circumstances were unclear and it could not be determined that it was suicide. The chairman of Russia’s largest oil company criticized Putin’s war in Ukraine in March. Later, Ravil Maganov was found dead under unclear circumstances. Russian agents are said to have also operated outside the country’s borders. The Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal, was tried to be poisoned with the highly lethal Novichok poison, but survived. Perhaps the best-known case is the Russian ex-spy Aleksandr Litvinenko, who died of poisoning in London in 2006. This is how it has gone with those who went out with Putin Risky to dissolve But Tor Bukkvoll believes that it will be risky for Putin to dissolve the Wagner group first of all, says Bukkvoll. – Doing something with Prigozhin while the Wagner group is still able to move is risky. There was probably a bit of panic in the Kremlin yesterday, so I doubt Putin will start anything right away. – The decisive question is how the relationship between Wagner and the Armed Forces will now be, says the Russia expert. Those soldiers who did not participate in the column that mobilized against Moscow are offered to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. They will probably then be incorporated into the Russian defence. The war in Ukraine continues, and Russia needs to use the Wagner soldiers in the warfare. An outraged Putin called the Wagner uprising a betrayal and a “stab in the back” on Saturday morning. Then it became clear that the mercenaries were not to be prosecuted for their actions after all. Photo: KREMLIN.RU / Reuters – Putin does not forgive traitors CNN’s former correspondent in Moscow Jill Dougherty, is a bit more skeptical about Prigozhin’s safety. – Putin does not forgive traitors. It is possible that Prigozhin will be killed in Belarus, says Dougherty to the TV channel. She emphasizes that this is a tough dilemma for Putin, as the Wagner leader still has some support. – He probably shouldn’t live in a high-rise building, says Danish foreign affairs commentator Jens Worning, referring to the fact that several oligarchs have lost their lives falling out of windows. He tells Danmarks Radio that Putin hardly wants Prigozhin to live. Peter Viggo Jakobsen, who is a lecturer at the Danish Defense Academy, agrees. He believes Prigozhin could become what he calls “the next participant in the Russian oligarchs’ window-dropping championship.” Andrew D’Anieri from the American think tank Atlantic Council tells the BBC that this could mean the end for the Wagner group. – But that does not necessarily mean that all private military companies are out of the heat in Russia, he says to the British broadcaster. A woman shows her mobile phone to a Wagner soldier in Rostov-na-Donu Photo: ROMAN ROMOKHOV / AFP Increasingly used The Wagner group is not the only private military company (PMF) in Russia. RSB Group and Moran Security Group are examples of other Russian PMFs. This has been a growing industry since the 90s in Russia. Such companies are actually illegal in the country. Nevertheless, the authorities have increasingly used them in conflicts around the world. Much because of the close ties between the Kremlin and Russian oligarchs, such as Prigozhin. Therefore, there is tension as to whether Russia will change its practice around the use of PMFs or not, as a result of the Wagner group’s rebellion. The Wagner Group was established in 2014. The company has its headquarters in St. Petersburg, Russia. They have been present in Ukraine since Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, and have played an important role throughout the war. In addition, they have participated in several conflicts in Africa and Latin America.
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– It is possible that Prigozhin will be killed in Belarus – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
