The election day poll from the Israeli TV station Kan News shows a majority of 62 of the Knesset’s 120 mandates, according to the Reuters news agency. Polls from two other TV stations show the same thing: that Netanyahu’s party Likud and its partners have a small majority, writes NTB. If many Arabs stay at home today, Benjamin Netanyahu may become prime minister again in Israel. – The question many people ask is the following: What is the purpose of participating in elections, if it does not lead to any change anyway, says Khalil Shikaki to the New York Times. He heads the Palestinian polling institute PCPSR. They are trying to estimate how many people will vote in today’s elections in Israel. This morning, close to 30 percent had cast their vote, according to Kan radio, which is higher than in any election since 1999 and may indicate that voters are motivated to go to the polls despite repeated elections. About 17 percent of the potential voters are Arabs with Israeli citizenship. In this group, most identify as Palestinians, but there are also a number of other identities. Traditionally, they have had a far lower turnout than the Israeli Jews. Historic collaboration In the last election last year, the Arab party Ra’am received the highest ever support. That gave them four representatives in the national assembly, the Knesset. After several attempts to form a government, Ra’am became the key that unlocked the chaos. For the first time, a Palestinian party, which also defines itself as Islamist, joined a government-forming coalition. Party leader Mansour Abbas made history. Controversial Benjamin Netanyahu had to leave office. Naftali Bennett became the new prime minister. Even then, Netanyahu had corruption charges hanging over him. Now he is standing for election while at the same time having to defend himself in court. LEADER: Almost no matter how things go, Benjamin Netanyahu’s party, Likud, will be the largest. Nevertheless, it must enter into a coalition to secure government power. Photo: Mahmoud Illean / AP Promised a lot There are several Arab parties in Israeli politics. The traditional role has been to be in opposition to the current government, and to speak for the Israeli Arab minority. In the 2020 elections, four Arab parties ran under the Arab Joint List. It gave them solid representation in the Knesset, but they stuck to the traditional role. Ra’am withdrew from the joint list before the election in 2021. To enter the coalition, Ra’am received promises of changes. TOOK THE STEP: As the first Arab-Palestinian leader, Mansour Abbas chose to lead his Ra’am party into a governing coalition in Israel. Photo: Ariel Schalit / AP Mansour Abbas wanted to raise living conditions in Israel’s Arab community. Ra’am’s base is, among other things, the Bedouins of the Negev. They live in poor areas with little infrastructure. Many of their settlements are not recognized by Israeli law. Recognition, infrastructure and the fight against crime were among the promises Abbas asked for. Some of this has come into place, writes NPR. Not enough The voters PCPSR talks to still do not think that enough has happened. – It is of course unfair. The coalition Ra’am is part of has been in power for only one year, but voters still judge them based on what they have achieved. The perception is that it was not worth it, says Khalil Shikaki. The Arabic-speaking TV channel Makan conducted a survey in October. It suggested that less than 40 percent of Arab voters would stand in today’s election. During the last election, participation was historically low. Only 44 percent of Israel’s Arab citizens cast their votes. Among the Israeli Jews, the proportion was 72 per cent. In the 2020 election, on the other hand, a whopping 63.5 percent of Arab voters voted. Below the barrier The latest opinion polls indicate that the two Arab parties with representatives in the Knesset are right on the barrier. The Times of Israel writes. If turnout among Arabs is as low as some of the surveys show, they could easily fall below the limit, according to the newspaper. It is already clear that the current government coalition is struggling. They lack five or six Knesset representatives to be able to continue in their position. – If Ra’am drops out of the Knesset, Netanyahu and his Likud party have a clear path to power, writes the Times of Israel. The political analyst Dahlia Scheindlin tells news that small margins can decide which parties win the election today. – If only one percent of the couch voters still decide to vote, it could decide the outcome, believes the Israeli analyst. If there are any surprises, she still believes it will go in Netanyahu’s favour. She believes it could lead the country in a more undemocratic direction. Among other things, his ultra-nationalist collaborators have said that they want to reform the legal system. They will change the legislation so that several of the indictments against Netanyahu will be dropped, and make the Supreme Court less independent. INTO THE HEAT: The ultra-nationalist Itamar Ben-Gvir has probably voted for himself. He cast his vote minutes after the polls opened in Israel on Tuesday morning. Photo: Tsafrir Abayov / AP Power with new friends An alliance on the extreme right wing, called Religious Zionist, is likely to make a very good choice and will be able to secure a government position for Netanyahu. One of the parties in this alliance is Otzma Yehudit, which means “Jewish strength”. It is described as an extreme party and is led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, a controversial figure in Israeli politics. He was expelled from the Knesset during a corona debate last year when he referred to an Arab parliamentarian as a terrorist, and has advocated expelling the Palestinians from the occupied territories. He also wants to deny Christians, whom he has described as “bloodthirsty vampires”, from celebrating Christmas in Israel. Ben-Gvir had also until recently had a picture of the Israeli mass murderer Baruch Goldstein on the wall. Godstein killed 29 Muslims praying in the Ibrahimi mosque in Hebron in 1994. According to polls, Otzma Yehudit is now likely to get 13 seats in the Knesset, which consists of 120 seats. Dahlia Scheindlin believes that a government in which the ultra-nationalists gain great power can cause democratic institutions to falter. – Many are very worried about this. Half support them and half will be worried about such an outcome, and hope that Netanyahu will not be able to get 61 seats or more in the Knesset, says the analyst.
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Israel’s Palestinians can decide the election – Benjamin Netanyahu can become the new prime minister – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
