In this article you can read about: Refugee camp hit “Intermediate phase” US warns Iran Conflicting messages Military expert on ground invasion Escalation Civilians in the firing line Hezbollah has not commented directly on the limited ground invasion, but said in a statement on Tuesday that it had fired artillery fire at Israeli troops in the border village Metula in the north of Israel, according to the news agency Reuters. This is confirmed by the Israeli Defense Force, which also reports intense fighting with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The Israeli town of Metula right on the border with Lebanon is among the places that have now been sealed off and declared a “military zone”. The picture is from October 2023. Photo: JOSEPH EID / AFP Israeli ground forces launched an attack on Tuesday night which they describe as limited and targeted against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. These are “targeted ground attacks” that are “limited and local” in villages near the Israeli border, according to the IDF. Both ground forces, air defense and artillery were used, according to the statement. Smoke seen from the suburb of Sin El Fil east of Beirut on Tuesday 1 October. Photo: Amr Abdallah Dalsh / Reuters 1. Refugee camp hit Lebanese media reports according to Reuters that a building in the Palestinian refugee camp Ein el-Hilweh has been hit. The Ein El Hilweh camp is located south of Saida in southern Lebanon. It is the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, according to the UN. It was established in 1948. The Palestinian military leader Mounir Maqdah was the target of the attack, according to the news agency. He is the leader of the Lebanese section of Fatah’s armed wing, the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades. The military leader is said to have survived the attack, writes Al Jazeera on Tuesday morning. At least five people lost their lives in the bombing, including his son Hassan al-Maqdah. 2. “Intermediate phase” Lieutenant-Colonel Sigbjørn Halsne at the Norwegian Defense Academy refers to the ground invasion as “a normal intermediate phase” in order to better map and weaken the opponent. He believes that such operations take place when the parties have finished initial airstrikes and possibly go into a more full-scale ground invasion. – Israel is sending in smaller forces to force the Hezbollah fighters in the area to move and thus make them vulnerable to new air and artillery attacks, says Halsne to news on Tuesday morning. Watch video of explosions near the border between Israel and Lebanon: Tormod Heier, professor at the Norwegian Defense College, believes the Israelis will try to provoke more rocket attacks from Hezbollah. – Then it will be easier for Israeli intelligence to find the remaining launch bases and the remaining infrastructure that they still haven’t taken out, says Heier to news on Tuesday morning. Furthermore, he says that Israeli ground forces will initially try to gain control of the nearest villages to the border. The IDF has shared videos that will show preparations for what they refer to as the “next phase”: 3. Warns Iran On the night of Tuesday, US Defense Minister Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli colleague Yoav Gallant. The Pentagon issued a warning to Iran of “severe consequences” if it were to attack Israel in direct response to last night’s operation. Sigbjørn Halsne emphasizes to news that if Iran does not heed these warnings, we may have a regional escalation of the conflict, where Iran and Israel shoot directly at each other. Halsne still does not believe that Iran wants to be directly involved. – Then Iran risks Israel and the US hitting back hard, which will threaten key interests and priorities for the Iranian regime. Their primary means of action in this conflict is precisely Hezbollah, which is one of their proxies in the area, he says. Israel carried out several heavy airstrikes in Beirut on Monday evening. Photo: Fadel Itani / AFP 4. Complete confusion In rapid succession, the messages began to come in on Monday evening. At the same time, there has been confusion about what is actually happening on the ground. news’s correspondent Yama Wolasmal in Beirut says late on Monday evening that he heard six powerful explosions in the Dahieh area. This is also reported by reporters from Reuters and AFP. news’s correspondent in Beirut, Yama Wolasmal, says there have been confusing reports about a possible Israeli ground offensive. At the same time, the attacks are ongoing in the south of Beirut. This came shortly after the Israeli military asked residents of South Beirut to evacuate as soon as possible due to planned attacks on Hezbollah targets. At the same time, Moshe Solomon of the Religious Zionist Party posted a message on X that a ground invasion in Lebanon had started, but that it was then called off. This message was subsequently deleted, according to the Haaretz newspaper. Several media have reported during the evening that Israel will soon enter Lebanon with ground forces. – The next stage in the war against Hezbollah will start soon, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant wrote on X after a meeting with local politicians in northern Israel. Among other things, the United States has seen movements of forces along the border, an anonymous American official told the Reuters news agency. 5. Military expert: – The table is set Tormod Heier, professor at the Norwegian Defense Academy, believes it is likely that an invasion is imminent. There are three reasons for this: Iran’s “accident”. Iran is Hezbollah’s most important ally. The country has so far not reacted to Israel’s attack. It “lowers the threshold” for an Israeli ground invasion. Internal divisions in Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former minister Benny Gantz, a member of the national assembly Knesset, have disagreed about Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip. But they agree to wage war against Hezbollah in an attempt to secure the areas in the north of Israel. Israeli airstrikes against Lebanon. This is a “classic fight”, according to Heier. In other words, a preparation for a ground invasion. Israel has recently attacked Hezbollah positions, weapons depots and rocket launch pads. – The table is set for a subsequent ground invasion, says Heier to news. Facts about Hezbollah The Hezbollah movement emerged in the 1980s. The group currently consists of a political and a military branch. It mostly resides in southern Lebanon. Has been led by Hassan Nasrallah, who has not appeared in public for many years. On Saturday 28 September, Hezbollah confirmed that Nasrallah was killed in Israeli strikes in Beirut. In July 2006, armed conflict broke out again between Hezbollah and Israel. The fighting lasted one month. The Hezbollah militia is now militarily stronger than the Lebanese National Security Forces. Is on the US terror list. On 22 July 2013, the military part of the organization was put on the EU’s terrorist list. Refuses to comply with a UN resolution demanding the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon. Hezbollah cooperates with Iran and Hamas, the Palestinian group that rules the Gaza Strip and is at war with Israel. Hezbollah began new attacks against Israel after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. Since then, Israel and Hamas have attacked each other a number of times. In July, a rocket hits a soccer field in the Golan Heights, which is controlled by Israel. Shortly afterwards, Israel carries out an airstrike against Beirut which kills Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukur. The following day, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is killed in an attack in Iran’s capital, Tehran. Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran promise revenge against Israel. In August, Israel and Hezbollah carry out a major attack against each other. Source: US.State dep. EU, NTB, Store norske lexikon On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning to Iran: – There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people and our country, he said in a video clip, according to Reuters. When asked about a possible Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, US President Joe Biden replied on Monday that he would be “comfortable” with Israel refraining. – We will continue to work with our partners in the region to promote a diplomatic solution, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken told reporters. Emergency services worked at the scene after an Israeli attack on the town of Ain Deleb in southern Lebanon on Monday. Photo: Aziz Taher / Reuters British Foreign Minister David Lammy also says he wants a ceasefire. – The best thing now is an immediate ceasefire to find a political solution, Lammy said according to Sky News. He added that the situation on the ground is “changing rapidly”. The UN also warns of the consequences of a ground invasion for the population of Lebanon and Israel, and that it could escalate into a major regional war. – We do not want to see any form of ground invasion, said spokesperson for Secretary-General António Guterres, Stéphane Dujarric, reports the news agency DPA. Around 10,000 UN forces are deployed in Lebanon. They are still present, according to Dujarric. Israeli artillery near the border with Lebanon on Monday. Photo: Baz Ratner / AP 6. Escalated bomb attacks Recently, the world has been holding its breath while the tension between Israel and the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon has increased. Two weeks ago, thousands were injured when communications equipment belonging to Hezbollah members exploded. Then Israel began an intensive bombing campaign against targets in Lebanon. Over the weekend, Hezbollah confirmed that its notorious leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli bomb attack on Beirut. A man gazed out at the pile of rubble on Sunday following Israel’s attack on the Haret Hreik neighborhood in Lebanon’s capital Beirut that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Photo: – / AFP In the last year, Israel has “worn on” a great deal of self-confidence, says Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Defense Academy. In addition to the fact that there has been no response from Iran, the US has not been able to keep Israel in check. But a ground invasion could cost Israel dearly, Heier believes. Israel may struggle when fighting Hezbollah fighters who are at home and hiding among the civilian population. – Entering towns and villages with ground forces is much more difficult than waging war from the air. Israel risks ending up in a quagmire and being left behind month after month, or even year after year, says Heier. Israeli soldiers with military vehicles in northern Israel on Monday. Photo: Leo Correa / AP 7. Civilians in the firing line Guerrilla tactics such as landmines and ambushes, and local knowledge can “even out the power relationship” between Hezbollah and Israel, Heier believes. He also points out that these are tactics that go beyond the civilian population, who end up in the middle of the firing line between the warring parties. In recent weeks, Israel has carried out a number of attacks against targets in Lebanon, particularly in the south. Here they bombed targets in Khiam on 28 September. Photo: RABIH DAHER / AFP – There is no doubt that there will be large civilian casualties, emphasizes Heier. – Hezbollah will also be jointly responsible for Israel’s brutal warfare causing disproportionate damage to the civilian population. In addition, Heier reminds that Hezbollah is a large political movement. A military victory is likely to be short-term as a new generation of Hezbollah fighters will emerge in a few years. Tensions between Israel and the Hezbollah movement have increased since the Gaza war began on October 7 last year. During the year, both Israel and Hezbollah carried out a number of attacks against each other. More than 1,600 people have so far been killed in attacks against Lebanon, according to Reuters. Hezbollah attacks have killed around 50 people in Israel. Interested in abroad? Listen to the foreign affairs editor’s podcast: Earlier in this case it was stated that Benny Gantz is a minister. The correct thing is that Benny Gantz is a former minister and now a member of the national assembly Knesset. The error was corrected at 22:48 on 30 September 2024. Published 30/09/2024, at 19.11 Updated 01.10.2024, at 08.37
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