They work in secret. And that’s how it has to be, otherwise it’s not possible to have any dialogue in any case. These are the cryptic comments news has received when we have tried to find out whether Norway is trying to follow up on proud traditions as a peace broker, this time between Russia and Ukraine. Peace in Ukraine is something completely different to facilitate than leading negotiations between the government and the FARC guerrillas in Colombia, or between the Tamil minority and the authorities in Sri Lanka. Not to mention between Palestinians and Israelis. Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine, photographed on 22 November. The war has now lasted 10 months. Photo: ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP “Pure terror against civilians” On Wednesday evening, while large parts of Ukraine were blacked out following Russian attacks on the electricity supply, Volodymyr Zelenskyj called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. There he called Russia’s bombing “pure terror against civilians”, and received statements of support from a number of countries, including Norway. According to Ukrainian authorities, over 8,300 civilians have been killed since Russia’s invasion on 24 February. Among them there will be over 430 children. The civilian population is now entering a harsh winter that can be very dark and cold. It is the survival of the Ukrainians that is at stake, said one of Zelenskyi’s advisers to news recently. Støre and Lavrov As a NATO country and neighbor to Russia, Norway is deeply involved in the war that was triggered by the Russian aggression against Ukraine. On 21 November, the Norwegian authorities said that they would contribute gas to Ukraine for NOK 2 billion. This kind of help can be just as important as weapons, which Norway has also provided, now that winter is setting in and Russia is trying to cut off the Ukrainian electricity supply. At the same time, the Norwegian authorities are trying to keep channels open to our large neighboring country to the east. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has had a close and trusting relationship with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. This was emphasized through Lavrov’s quick visit to Støre during a stopover in Oslo at the end of October last year. Sergej Lavrov and Jonas Gahr Støre during a meeting in Greenland in 2008. Photo: Jan-Morten Bjørnbakk / SCANPIX This personal close contact helped to resolve the tangle surrounding the Russian trawler Elektron in 2005. The incident could have led to direct confrontation between Norway and Russia in the important fishing grounds in the Barents Sea. – Not a goal to change the government Now Sergey Lavrov is traveling around to the countries that want him to visit, to defend why Russia invaded Ukraine. Right before the invasion, Lavrov said that Russia would not attack the neighboring country. According to the British newspaper The Times, the man who has been foreign minister since 2004 was not informed of the attack until all decisions had been made and the troops were set in motion. – It is not our goal that the special operation should change the government in Ukraine, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on 22 November. This is something completely different from what Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his speech on the night of 24 February. It is an argument that the president’s closest adviser, the secretary Nikolaj Patrushev, has also previously made. – We must demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, Putin said in February. At the same time, he asked the soldiers and the army in the independent country to lay down their weapons. So a pure capitulation. The military offensive aimed to quickly take control of the capital Kyiv and the country’s second largest city Kharkiv. Then pro-Moscow politicians would take over, instead of Ukraine’s legally elected leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government. It didn’t work out that way. And already at the end of March we heard new tones from some in the circle around President Putin. Does Zelenskyj have to moderate? Russia actually controls between 15 and 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory. But the Russian army has suffered heavy losses. At the beginning of November, they had to give up Kherson, the only regional capital they controlled, if we ignore Simferopol in Crimea, which was already annexed in 2014. Now Russia is talking about Zelenskyi as a leader they relate to, while Zelenskyi himself has said that it will be impossible to negotiate with Russia as long as Putin leads the country. But perhaps Zelenskyj also needs to moderate his use of words now. Ukraine is completely dependent on the political and not least military support they receive from the United States. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must take into account forces in Ukraine that want to continue the war until full victory. Photo: UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SER / Reuters President Joe Biden’s security policy adviser, Jake Sullivan, during his visit to Kyiv at the beginning of November, is said to have asked Zelenskyj to moderate his use of words so as not to destroy the possibilities of starting a dialogue. At the same time, he emphasized that the US’s most important task is to secure Ukraine the best possible starting point on the battlefield, before possible negotiations. The intelligence chiefs met In mid-November there was a meeting between the head of the American intelligence service, William Burns, and the head of the Russian foreign intelligence service, Sergei Naryshkin, in the Turkish capital, Ankara. Burns went directly from this meeting to Kyiv. Burns, who has been ambassador to Moscow and speaks Russian, could play a key role if the parties to the conflict believe the time has come to sit down and talk. From the Russian side, it is probably a prerequisite that the US has a central role in such talks. On 23 November, a child was killed in a Russian attack on a hospital in the city of Vilniansk, in the Zaporizhzhya county in the south of Ukraine. Photo: STRINGER / Reuters What can Norway contribute? Just a few weeks before the Nobel Peace Prize is to be awarded in Oslo, to representatives from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, the peace broker nation Norway is also trying to position itself. None of those news has been in contact with will say anything about which channels have been created. Perhaps Norway has to cooperate with another neighboring country with a border with Russia. Finland, and not least President Sauli Niinistö, has traditionally had a good direct relationship with President Vladimir Putin. But Putin’s lies that he would not attack Ukraine have destroyed this trust, even though Finland is probably one of the countries that still has some kind of dialogue going on with Moscow. Peace proposal shot down The Ukrainian online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda writes that before the G20 meeting in Bali, in which Sergej Lavrov participated, there was a ten-point proposal. The Norwegian authorities must also have been made aware of this proposal. In short, it meant that Russia should give back the occupied parts of Ukraine in the south and east, including all of Donbas. In return, the issue of Crimea was to be put on hold for seven years, along with the issue of Ukrainian membership in NATO. As a first step and to show good will, Russia should stop the missile attacks against Ukraine. The answer from Russia was the opposite. On Tuesday 15 November, the rockets, close to 100 of them, rained down on Ukraine. The aim was to hit civil infrastructure such as water and electricity supply. Fears frozen conflict And that’s where the “peace process” stands right now. The Norwegian authorities keep the negotiating apparatus ready. The USA and Russia have opened some channels in the open. Ukraine is still chasing a better position on the battlefield and is terrified of being pressured into a temporary solution that could quickly freeze the conflict.
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