The first time I heard someone declare Erna Solberg finished, was when the party got around 10 percent in her first time as party leader. “Erna fjærna” whispered disgruntled Conservative people in the corners. Some even said it out loud. The rest is history. And Erna Solberg is historic. No prime minister from the Conservative Party has served longer than her. Now most people who speak out seem certain that Erna Solberg’s political life is coming to an end. Now, however, there are many examples of people being resurrected after being declared politically dead, both by commentators and other politicians. It’s really just a matter of looking around the Storting. Such predictions tend to be forgotten as quickly as voters seem to forget political scandals and other missteps. Why is the Conservative Party circling Erna? There is an important exception among those who believe the Conservative leader is done, and that is her own. It is strictly only among them that she needs trust. For so long. Many people find it strange that the Conservative Party has not thrown the party leader at the door. In almost any other party it would probably have happened long ago. But in the Conservative Party it is quiet, not so much as scattered demands for her resignation from Incognito Conservative Party or from the local team leader in Ytre Ingensted. On the contrary, they circle around their leader. There are several reasons for that. Something is, of course, about the fact that Erna Solberg has been party leader for almost twenty years. Now she benefits from the trust she has built in the party over the years. And it is connected to why they believe she can rebuild trust. They completely trust her explanation. But Solberg has also gained a strong position among the people. In this election campaign, “Erna” has been the party’s strongest card, only beaten by a historically unpopular government. Where local politicians from Ap- and Sp claim that the government has lost the election for them, the Conservative Party’s many newly elected mayors know who they can thank for the job. Therefore, it has almost been taken as a matter of course that the voter’s happiness with Erna Solberg at the front will last into the general election in 2025. Many have more or less taken a bourgeois election victory for granted. Norway has become bluer: Is the Conservative Party the new center? Alternates between belief and doubt But the fact that the party wants and crosses its fingers that Erna Solberg will continue is not the same as believing that it will work. There is a widespread take one day at a time and put ice in your stomach attitude. Many also express considerable faith and doubt. One day they think this will go away, the next day uncertainty creeps in. One of the reasons for this is that an Erna exit comes like the famous Christmas Eve on the old lady of the party. When it became clear that Solberg would continue as party leader and prime ministerial candidate after the last election defeat, all discussions about succession were called off. For a few weeks there was speculation about possible successors, but none of the mentioned candidates seemed particularly keen. Deputy chairman Henrik Asheim is the one who naturally takes the turn if Solberg gets a brick (or a lead-heavy stock portfolio) in the head. Asheim is strong in debate and well-liked, but exudes neither ambition nor haste. Former foreign minister Ine Eriksen Søreide is always mentioned as a favourite. She is undoubtedly skilled and respected, and someone the party can rally around. But if she really wants the job, she deserves an Oscar statuette for good acting. Because in that case she hides it well. Tina Bru is the one many believe has some of the same popular qualities as Erna Solberg. But the sociable deputy doesn’t seem eager to sit in the driver’s seat on the Erna bus either. Several can be mentioned, both by younger people and among the veterans. Nikolai Astrup, Jan Tore Sanner and Bent Høie are three of them. Solberg: – The question is whether I have the strength to rebuild trust. The Conservative Party is therefore not lacking in potential successors, but no one seems to be highly motivated or ready to go. It is also not easy to see signs that someone is working to position their candidates. Jumping after Erna It can of course also be about how Erna Solberg has shaped the role. Her way of being leader of the Conservative Party tempts no one who wants a reasonably normal life. The last few weeks have hardly made it more tempting. The presence and work capacity she has shown, no one can match. And it will take a long time to build up someone with similar authority anyway. It is probably only former Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg (Ap) who has had such a strong position among people in recent times. Tranquility is not a law of nature In the same way that the search for obvious party leader candidates is difficult, one almost has to use a magnifying glass to find conflicts and internal tensions in the party. Not even Solberg’s boundless pragmatism and Høyre’s marked twist towards the center have triggered audible criticism. The famous song “There are problems inside the Right” is simply put to shame. And that in a party that has a reputation for eating its own leaders. It has given the party a considerable working peace to develop and talk about politics. The contrast is great with the Labor Party, where conflicts and bad atmosphere have hampered the party for far too many years. It is not at all inconceivable that a leader as strong as Solberg has created calm and kept the party together. She has been able to cancel national assembly decisions live without anyone raising an eyebrow. This is probably due both to the fact that she is the undisputed leader, but also to the fact that she has delivered results for her party: Eight years in government and good elections. Erna Solberg on the oil tax package: – I do not want to rule out that I was incompetent What comes after Erna Solberg? What happens in the Conservative Party on the day Erna Solberg is no longer there? There is always a fear of the Tito effect when a strong leader disappears. The expression comes from what happened in the Balkans after Yugoslavia’s autocratic president died. It is unlikely to be so dramatic, but calmness around people, direction and politics is not a natural law in the Conservative Party either. Although no heirs are ready now, things can quickly turn around. It is often the case that someone stands up when the situation calls for it. It happened, for example, in the party Venstre when the outsider Guri Melby entered the party leadership race at the eleventh hour. In any case, one thing is certain the day Erna Solberg chooses to go. Someone will come.
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Is there a life without Erna Solberg? – Speech
