It’s starting to catch on in the US. In less than three weeks, the country will have a new president. The striking thing about the election campaign so far is how little movement there is in the voter groups, at least after Kamala Harris became the presidential candidate for the Democrats. Assassination attempt on Trump, Harris’ good debate and contested vice presidential candidates notwithstanding; the candidates appear to be completely equal and the election will, by all accounts, be decided by roughly a million American voters in the swing states. These voters not only decide who will rule their own country, they also influence the future fate of the world. Unpredictable The biggest changes will come if Donald J. Trump wins the election, but let’s not take it for granted that everything will be as before with Kamala Harris in the White House. More on her foreign policy later. Trump has learned from the last time he was in power. So do the people around him. And those changes happen if the Republicans also gain power in the Senate and the House of Representatives, the two chambers that make up Congress in the United States. First, he will bring unpredictability into a system that lives on long decision-making lines and trust. Trump does not like international organizations and agreements. He prefers agreements with two parties, especially if he has the impression that the United States or himself will get the best out of the agreement. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and former US president Donald Trump met on the border between South and North Korea in 2019. Photo: KCNA KCNA / KCNA KCNA It is Europe and Ukraine that will feel the most if Trump wins. Arms support for Ukraine is unpopular with parts of his electorate, and he has made it clear he wants a deal in place quickly. According to the latest book by journalist Bob Woodward, Trump has had several conversations with Vladimir Putin after he stepped down as president. Donald Trump, pictured here with Vladimir Putin, during a meeting in 2017 when Trump was president. Photo: MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV / AFP He will be able to push forward a negotiated solution in which Ukraine must give up the areas occupied by Russia, while the rest of Ukraine must remain neutral. It will make what is left of the country vulnerable in the years to come. This will not only affect Ukraine. It will also affect the collective deterrence that the vast majority of European countries depend on in order to stand against Russia in the future. Faith that NATO works will at best be weakened, and may also be completely destroyed with Trump in power. One must also assume that the current rally around Ukraine support in Europe will burst quite quickly. Therefore, one should be careful in assuming that Norway and the USA have an equally good relationship regardless of who governs. It is true that our relationship with the United States is solid and stands on its own two feet. The last time Trump was in power, military cooperation was strengthened, not weakened. Norway plays an important role, for example, in controlling and monitoring strategic Russian submarines. It has value, but it is poor consolation if the rest of European and American security cooperation unravels or is permanently weakened. Nato supporter Kamala Harris grew up in California, the child of immigrants from Jamaica and India. She has no political experience from the Cold War like Joe Biden has. She is not naturally drawn to Europe, but unlike Trump, she sees the value of alliances and has made it quite clear that she will continue to support Ukraine. She has also distinguished herself with her strong support for Nato. I think many heads of state west of the Moscow River will heave a sigh of relief if she wins the election. What will it really take for Harris to beat Trump in November? A Trump victory will also strengthen the right-wing populist wave that is already affecting Europe. It introduces a new unpredictability into the system that has kept Europe safe and free of major continental wars until recent years, not forgetting the Yugoslavian wars. It will also further weaken the democracy movements around the world and the legal order internationally. Why cooperate in complicated international organizations when you can get what you want elsewhere? This is how several of the larger states will be tempted to think, and such a great power game does not suit an open economy like Norway’s badly. What will happen in the Middle East is perhaps the most difficult to imagine. Perhaps this is where Harris will differ the most from his predecessor Joe Biden, who has been at odds with Israel for the past year. Dislikes ongoing war Harris has made it clear that the Palestinians deserve a state, she had difficulty calling Benjamin Netanyahu an ally and knows there are forces in her own party that want her to go further. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Photo: Julia Nikhinson / AP Trump has clearly sided with the Israeli right-wing and is said to have repaired what became a difficult relationship with Netanyahu. On the other hand, he dislikes ongoing war and instability, and right now it is difficult to see what long-term solutions the Israelis are offering. When you rule the world’s most powerful country, you want to be listened to, especially as the newly elected president. More complicated Where Harris and Trump do not differ so clearly is on China policy. There will be a different use of language with Trump and more noise, but there is broad agreement in American politics to try to limit China’s power and influence. Perhaps China will prefer to deal with Harris who is more traditional in style, but we have to assume that the two giants of the world will be in confrontation for the next four years as well. The world is more complicated than it was. The United States no longer always has the last word as it did in the decades after the fall of the Soviet Union. But if you’ve been wondering whether there’s any reason to care about who wins the US election, the answer is yes. The American voters decide which direction their own country will take, but also strongly influence the kind of world we will all live in. Published 18/10/2024, at 17.10
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Is the world really ready for a second round with Trump? – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
