They are the most powerful countries in the Muslim world. Both sit on enormous oil resources. Both spend large sums on their military. And they have been in conflict with each other since 1979. Now the ice front between the bitter rivals may seem to have been broken: On Friday last week, the news came that Iran and Saudi Arabia are restoring diplomatic relations, opening embassies in each other’s capitals. China brings home a diplomatic victory. In Israel, the disappointment is great. Mixed signals are coming from the US. Here are eight questions and answers about the sensational agreement: What does the agreement mean for the Middle East? It could, potentially, end the conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Here, Shia Muslim Iran and Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia have supported groups that have stood against each other. The two countries have been fighting for political, military and ideological influence across the Middle East for a long time. MADE HEADLINES: Iranian newspaper front pages after China-brokered deal revealed. Photo: ATTA KENARE / AFP When Saudi Arabia and Iran now restore diplomatic relations with each other, it may become easier to find peaceful solutions to some of the conflicts in the region. The worst is in Yemen, where a brutal war has cost more than 150,000 lives. After the Shia Muslim Houthi militia, which is supported by Iran, took over the country’s capital Sana in 2015, neighboring Saudi Arabia attacked the Houthis. Eight years later, the war has become a military and political quagmire for the Saudis, who have been unable to drive the Houthis away. The UN describes the situation in Yemen as the worst humanitarian disaster in the world. What brought the two enemies together? Both countries stand at important crossroads, and it is useful to mitigate the conflict between them. In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince and Head of Government Mohammed bin Salman has laid out an ambitious plan for his country. He wants to turn Saudi Arabia into an international tourist mecca. Today, the country has 20 million visitors a year, but the goal is to increase to 100 million by 2030. Then there can be no war and conflict in the neighboring countries. Mohammed bin Salman is completely dependent on stability in the Middle East to succeed in his grand vision. Iran is facing an existential crisis. The country is experiencing the worst riots in decades. Tens of thousands of people have demonstrated in recent months, demanding that the regime be removed, after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in the custody of the morality police last autumn. Many Iranians are fed up with the lack of basic freedoms. They are also angry that the authorities are sending billions of dollars to militant groups in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, while many Iranians are struggling to make ends meet. The economy is paralyzed by international sanctions. The regime in Iran must therefore focus on internal matters in order to survive. They are served by making peace with Saudi Arabia so that they do not have to spend large resources on the enmity. THE CARDS ON THE TABLE: Negotiations in Beijing last week were led by China’s highest-ranking diplomat, former foreign minister Wang Yi. Photo: Luo Xiaoguang / AP What exactly is the agreement about? It can be summarized in the following points, according to, among others, the Wall Street Journal: Iran and Saudi Arabia will reopen their embassies within two months. They must respect each other’s sovereignty. This means that they must not do anything that impairs the other person’s safety. They are activating a security agreement from 2001, which, among other things, will prevent them from coming into military conflict with each other. They enter into economic, technological, research, cultural and sporting cooperation. Iran, Saudi Arabia and China pledge to do all they can to promote regional and international peace and security. The agreement should also mean that Saudi Arabia will not support opposition groups fighting the Iranian regime. The Saudis will also cut financial support to regime-critical media such as Iran International, which has covered the riots in Iran widely. The regime in Iran, for its part, promises to ask militias it supports in Iraq and Yemen to refrain from attacking Saudi Arabia with drones and missiles, as they have done in the past. How is the agreement received? The agreement has been met with some skepticism and a wait-and-see attitude in some Western countries, but is hailed as a historic milestone in most countries in the Middle East. Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Oman express joy in unison. The agreement gives many hopes for increased stability and economic development in the region. But for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it is a powerful slap in the face. For years he has advocated attacking Iran militarily to prevent the Iranians from developing nuclear weapons that could threaten Israel. It will be very demanding now that Saudi Arabia has made peace with Iran. In Saudi Arabia, people are worried that Israel will try to sabotage the agreement. What role does China play? In December, China’s leader Xi Jinping undertook a tour of Arab countries. In Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, he met Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. In February, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi traveled from Tehran to Beijing. ON VISIT: Xi and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in front of a painting of the Great Wall of China in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Iran’s president visited China for several days in February. Photo: Yan Yan / AP There is little doubt that these visits have contributed to the latest decisive negotiations in Beijing. The agreement shows a China that has self-confidence and the will to intervene with its diplomacy in conflicts they previously managed far away. It is interesting considering China’s role elsewhere in the world. In February, China presented what it calls a “possible peace plan for the crisis in Ukraine”. Next week, President Xi Jinping will visit Moscow, according to sources Reuters and Bloomberg have spoken to. After talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Xi will hold talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Why choose China as mediator? Saudi Arabia and Iran have been negotiating directly for several years in Oman and Iraq, without reaching an agreement. China buys oil from both, and has not taken sides in the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. From China, Iran and Saudi Arabia face little criticism for their governance and the situation of human rights in the countries. China has been closer to Tehran than Riyadh, but recently Beijing has spent a lot of energy befriending the Saudis. China is also Saudi Arabia’s most important trading partner. Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the United States has been poor during President Joe Biden’s first term. Biden was eventually forced to “fist bump” with Mohammed Bin Salman, but it may well be that the crown prince wants to make the US aware that there are other major powers Riyadh can work with. “FIST BUMP”: Joe Biden and Mohammed Bin Salman’s famous “fist bump” in Riyadh on July 15, 2022. Photo: BANDAR AL-JALOUD / AFP What signal is China sending to the United States? To a greater extent, China is willing to take up space internationally that the US is unwilling or unable to take. They also send a signal that China is doing as it sees fit. Sometimes it will conflict with the United States. At other times, the US will also benefit from it. In the matter of Iran and Saudi Arabia, the US benefits from a calmer situation in the Middle East. Especially because the war in Ukraine requires great resources and attention from the United States. If China can get Iran back into the nuclear deal, the US will see that as a good thing. And no one wants the war in Yemen to continue. The US is not negative about what China has achieved. They are honest that they cannot talk to Iran in the same way as China, but Beijing’s breakthrough has given the US something to think about. For its part, China stands to gain a lot from the easing of the US-led sanctions against Iran. Chinese companies have large, lucrative contracts to upgrade Iranian oil facilities, but they have been put on hold because China is afraid of running afoul of sanctions. What signal is China sending “home”? The direction of the oval between Iran and Saudi Arabia tells of a political craft that effectively links China’s global ambitions to the political game at home. The last four days of negotiations between the countries in Beijing took place “behind the noise” of the annual meeting of the People’s Congress, which is formally China’s highest state body and legislative assembly. While Xi Jinping was commanding attention in the Great Hall of the People, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi was negotiating with the security advisers of the heads of government from Iran and Saudi Arabia elsewhere in Beijing. The agreement was announced just hours after the National People’s Congress hand-picked delegates gave Xi Jinping a third term as China’s president. That China was able to bring Saudi Arabia and Iran together is a diplomatic victory for Xi, but Beijing will be careful not to oversell the result. HANDSHAKE: Handshake and not “fist bump” when Xi Jinping visited Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh in December, during the Chinese leader’s tour of Arab countries. Photo: Untitled / AP news has been in contact with several experts on international politics in China, and among them the tone is somewhat wait-and-see. In short, this is the message from several people: The Middle East does not stop being the Middle East because China chooses to enter the region more actively.
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