The Imbalance in Galicia’s Pension System
Ensuring the sustainability of pension systems in the face of an inverted demographic pyramid presents a crucial challenge for many countries in the coming decades. Nations such as Japan, Denmark, Germany, and Spain are already taking steps to delay retirement age as much as possible.
The worst-case scenario arises when the number of active workers falls below that of pensioners. This situation is already occurring in certain areas of Galicia, particularly in its rural interior.
The Galician Imbalance
Recent data from March indicates that Spain exceeded 21.6 million registered contributors for the first time, signifying active individuals contributing a percentage of their salaries to the Social Security pension system. During the same period, the Social Security paid out a staggering 10.3 million pensions.
However, focusing on regions significantly affected by depopulation and demographic aging like Galicia, the figures become alarming. According to Faro de Vigo, 15 out of the 53 regions in Galicia display a discrepancy between the number of contributors to Social Security and pensioners.
More Pensioners than Workers
According to the Instituto Galego de Estatística, there are 1,019,106 contributors to Social Security in the entirety of Galicia, compared to about 685,800 pensioners as of 2025. This results in a troubling ratio of 1.5 workers for every pensioner, significantly lower than Spain’s average of 2.44.
Such a ratio places Galicia in a precarious situation. The BBVA Pension Institute notes that any region falling below a ratio of 2 is at serious risk. Recent figures from La Voz de Galicia indicate provinces like Orense have even lower ratios, reaching a concerning 1.1.
The “Empty Galicia” Concept
These statistics illustrate a broader issue where economically active territories help offset deficiencies in the more rural, depopulated regions of Galicia. This pattern is particularly evident in the provinces of Ourense and Lugo, where demographic aging and youth out-migration towards more prosperous coastal areas exacerbate the issue.
Data from Faro de Vigo suggests that only Pontevedra has managed to escape this crisis to some extent. Regions experiencing high depopulation, such as A Limia, report figures of 5,943 contributors against 7,071 pensioners, while regions like Verín show even worse statistics with 6,674 active contributors for 8,161 pensioners.
The lack of job opportunities and an aging population in these communities has created a vicious cycle, where the number of young people available to support a growing number of retirees is consistently dwindling.
Unpromising Future
Looking ahead, the forecasts for the upcoming years are not optimistic. Projections by the Instituto Galego de Estatística suggest a 2% decrease in the active population of Galicia by 2038, despite a 1.9% increase in individuals over 16 years old.
In absolute terms, the number of active individuals is expected to decline from approximately 1.26 million in 2023 to 1.23 million by 2038, further worsening the imbalance between contributors and pensioners. This could lead to a daunting ratio of 0.858 contributors for every pensioner, signifying a scenario where there are more pensioners than active workers.
The crisis in the pension system poses significant risks not only to the financial stability of these regions but also to the social fabric, as the younger generations bear the burden of an aging society. Policymakers must take urgent and comprehensive action to address these challenges before the situation becomes untenable for the residents of Galicia.