Thousands of civilians die and the world watches. The parties are at war. Hamas wants to wipe out Israel, Israel wants to wipe out Hamas. Peace seems both completely necessary and completely impossible. news has asked diplomat Kai Eide, Oslo Agreement negotiator Jan Egeland, Middle East expert Hilde Henriksen Waage and Norway’s ex-ambassador to Israel Jon Hanssen-Bauer about what is needed to stop the carnage and build a dialogue. No trust The first point the experts agree on is that the eye of the needle the international community must now thread the thread into is microscopic. – Firstly, you have the intransigence, which is at the highest level you can imagine. At the same time, there is no clarity in the picture about who will negotiate, sighs former top diplomat Kai Eide. – There is no trust between the parties whatsoever. There is no will to talk together, despairs Jan Egeland, who is otherwise busy with the Norwegian Refugee Council’s work in trying to provide emergency aid to Gaza. Jan Egeland was chief negotiator during the process that led up to the Oslo agreements, and is now head of the Norwegian Refugee Council. Photo: Eskil Wie Furunes / news – It may well happen that both parties just want to continue with another round of murder and terror and make it even worse. That is perhaps the most likely, says Middle East expert Hilde Henriksen Waage. – I think there is very little chance of getting any direct dialogue between Hamas and Israel. There will be indirect contact through Egypt and Qatar, and they are trying to de-escalate the conflict. But it is not easy now, because there is a lot at stake, says Jon Hanssen-Bauer, Norway’s former ambassador to Israel. Israeli soldiers load ammunition into a vehicle en route to Gaza in 2014. The 2014 conflict lasted nearly two months and ended after Israel invaded Gaza, destroying 32 of Hamas’s tunnels and killing several of the organization’s military leaders. Photo: BAZ RATNER / Reuters The sigh is in unison, but several of the experts see one thing that can lead to solutions: American pressure. The important role of the USA – Of course, it requires the USA to say that “enough is enough”, says Eide. Kai Eide is a former diplomat and politician for the Conservative Party. He was one of Norway’s most high-profile diplomats in the 1990s and 2000s, including as a peace broker in the Balkans and UN envoy in Afghanistan. Photo: Halldor Asvall – Now there is no doubt that it is only through strong external pressure that agreements between the Israelis and the Palestinians can be achieved. Then the US, supported by European powers, must pressure Israel. And then combinations of Arab countries and the United States must pressure a divided Palestinian leadership, Egeland analyses. Henriksen Waage shares the opinion. She remembers how impossible it seemed to get the negotiations that led to the Oslo Accords in place, back at the start of the 1990s, until the US changed completely. Hilde Henriksen Waage is professor of history at the University of Oslo, senior researcher at PRIO with the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians as a special area. Photo: Martin Tegnander / PRIO – In 1991, Israel refused to take part in peace negotiations initiated by its best ally the USA. Then President George HW Bush (senior) told Israel that “if you Israel do not now come to this negotiating table and do what we want, then I will stop 10 billion dollars in money transfers to Israel.” He did, recalls Henriksen Waage. – If the US wants to, they have the necessary means. There are two of those means: weapons and money. They can use these instruments to bid for a new dance in the Middle East, she emphasizes. Israeli Prime Minister Yitzahk Rabin shakes hands with PLO leader Yasser Arafat in 1993 in front of US President Bill Clinton. Photo: J. DAVID AKE / AFP Who will rule in Israel and Gaza? Jon Hanssen-Bauer does not believe that the US alone will neither want nor be able to push through negotiations. – A government which feels that it is fighting for its right to life and existence, it does not allow itself to be easily pressured to finish that task, says the former diplomat. He believes the solution lies in very broad conversations. – A political solution will necessarily imply broad circles of agreement between, and support from, many key players. At the same time, Israelis and Palestinians must experience that they themselves can live with the solutions, says Hanssen-Bauer. French President Emmanuel Macron and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will meet in Cairo on October 25 to discuss the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Photo: Christophe Ena / AP Kai Eide also emphasizes the importance that the parties themselves must take ownership of the peace process: – In such negotiations, point one is that the direct parties must take ownership of the process. This is a big problem, because who will negotiate? Here, several of the experts point out that there must be some form of power change on the Palestinian and Israeli sides. – Unfortunately, both parties play on the same bad team. They have gone in an extreme, extreme direction, says Henriksen Waage. Jon Hanssen-Bauer was the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ special representative for the Middle East from 2009 to 2015 and ambassador in Tel Aviv from 2015 to 2020. He was also a researcher in Fafo with a special area of peace and reconciliation. Photo: Cicilie Sigrid Andersen / news – You have to find a way to represent the Palestinian people, says Egeland. Presumably this means the Palestinian Authority PA and the Palestinian Liberation Organization PLO, which are currently out of power in Gaza. – The PA must take over the government of a united Palestine, but will not be able to take over the government of Gaza on top of Israeli tanks. It also has poor legitimacy and reputation among Palestinians. Therefore, there needs to be a comprehensive strengthening of the PA and a broad unity government with a basis in the PLO to restore legitimacy, says Hanssen-Bauer. The president of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO is 87-year-old Mahmoud Abbas. Photo: CHRISTOPHE ENA / AFP The same question applies to Israel’s government. The current far-right government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been criticized for adding fuel to the fire with the brutality of its warfare and its encouragement of Israeli settlement building in the West Bank. – You must have a leadership willing to negotiate in Israel. It won’t be easy. But when this has gone too far, and people’s anger at Netanyahu is at its strongest, then he must go to the polls. Then there may be another government, says Eide. – At the moment, we have a government that is exceptionally unfit and has made many grotesque statements. But we also have a layer of leaders in Israel who are not there at all. I don’t think Netanyahu will stay in office long after the war if it is short, and I think he will be deposed during the war if it is long, says Hanssen-Bauer. The Israeli opposition leaders Benny Gantz (left) and Yair Lapid (right) went to the polls in 2019 to overthrow Netanyahu, despite a series of disagreements. The two shared power until Netanyahu returned in December 2022. Photo: Oded Balilty / AP Ceasefire and hostage release Another thing that is absolutely necessary to talk about peace at all is that the parties must lay down their weapons. – In the short term, the only thing that can and must be agreed upon is a ceasefire. It is too early to see long-term solutions. We need an end to the bombardment of Gaza’s civilian population and a release of the Israeli hostages, emphasizes Egeland, and elaborates: – Such a humanitarian ceasefire must last long enough for the civilian population to be effectively protected and helped. Hanssen-Bauer says the same. – We must ensure humanitarian aid and protect the civilian population in Gaza. We must also demand that Hamas release the hostages, stop firing rockets and protect civilians. Once the hostages are released, it becomes easier to imagine talks about a ceasefire.
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– If the USA wants to, then they have the necessary means – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
