On Wednesday morning – one day overtime – the delegates in Dubai agreed on a final declaration. news has spoken to three experts to understand what the declaration means in practice. Are they just words or will they mean something for the climate? Several called the declaration “historic” because the world’s countries committed to transition away from fossil energy. According to Steffen Kallbekken, head of research at Cicero, it is not that simple. – This sends strong signals about emission cuts, but is not a decision about emission cuts, he says. He says that it is very important to remember that this is not a decision about what will happen. Instead, it is a review that sends signals about important policies. Rio de Janeiro in 2025 Researcher Bård Lahn at UiO explains that the final declaration is intended to give direction to what each individual country must do when they set new climate targets for the next period of the Paris Agreement. The goals that the countries have in the Paris Agreement now go up to 2030. During the next year, they will begin to create new goals for up to 2035. The new goals will be presented at the climate summit in Rio de Janeiro in the autumn of 2025. – The most direct, The concrete significance of this decision will be seen when the countries set themselves new targets that will go up to 2035, says Lahn. Guidelines for the market – These are guidelines used by the markets, says chief analyst Thina Saltvedt about the content of the final statement from Dubai. Photo: Privat Thina Saltvedt is chief analyst for sustainability at Nordea. Among other things, she points to the fact that the agreement states that the renewable energy capacity is to be tripled. – It requires that more renewable energy be built faster than what has been decided so far. It sets some of the conditions for which way the capital flow will go forward, she says. She says that it is very important for investors that you have clear and distinct goals about where you are going. Even if you don’t use “phase out”, but “adjust away from” it is clear that we are going away from fossil fuels. – These are guidelines used by the markets. If there had not been such clear signals, one could imagine that this transition would have taken longer, she says. Saltvedt gives some examples of how companies will relate to what has been decided in Dubai: – How quickly should a company that uses power invest in green power? – How quickly must a company expect to cut its CO2 emissions? – How quickly must a company switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy? – Contrast to the oil industry Saltvedt says that the concretization of the goals set out in the declaration – where we are going and how quickly we should go – can help to avoid over-investing in fossil energy. – So that we avoid ending up with so-called “stranded assets”. In other words, you overinvest in oil and gas here in Norway, which is not in demand because the energy transition is going quickly, she says. Saltvedt also believes that the outcome of COP28 is a clear signal to the oil and gas companies that they must increase the pace in the transition away from fossil energy. – This is in stark contrast to the fact that the oil industry in Norway says they want to invest NOK 240 billion on the Norwegian continental shelf, she says. Going straight into Norwegian politics – Now we’re really getting straight into a new discussion about what we’re going to do next after 2030, says Bård Lahn. Photo: Tron Trondal / UiO Both Kallbekken and Lahn believe that the decision in Dubai will go straight into Norwegian politics. – This goes straight into what we know are difficult political discussions in Norway, says Lahn. Among other things, the decision goes straight into the whole debate about the future of Norwegian oil and gas operations, where the dividing lines are known, – We will certainly want to see that those who want to place restrictions on the oil industry will point to this decision about a transition away from fossil energy, and say that Norway must actually take responsibility and put action behind the words here, says Lahn. At the same time, he believes that the government, which wants “to develop, not dismantle”, will point to many reservations in the text to say that they do not need to change policy. Both indicate that the agreement in Dubai points towards which goals Norway should set for 2035. Today, Norwegian climate policy has 2030 as its goal. – This puts pressure on us. Norway is quite good at high ambitions. We have not been very good at actually implementing emission cuts, says Kallbekken. CO₂ in the atmosphere measured in parts per million particles (ppm)460 parts per million particles (ppm)? Click for an explanation of parts per million, abbreviated ppmGo to news’s Climate Status Why is the graph so wavy? This is about seasons. In summer, the amount of CO₂ decreases because plants and trees absorb CO₂ from the air. In winter, the plants die, the CO₂ escapes and the graph rises. Since there are more plants and trees in the northern hemisphere, the seasons here control the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere. What is the problem with a lot of CO₂ in the atmosphere? The greenhouse effect makes the earth livable, but more greenhouse gases, such as CO₂, increase this effect and make the earth warmer . The graph starts in 1960 because this was the year when the world began to measure CO₂ systematically. It happened on Mauna Loa in Hawaii and the curve shows the measurements from there. Before the world became industrialized there was around 280 ppm CO₂ in the atmosphere (year 1700). The researchers found that out by analyzing ice core samples. Will there be less CO₂ in the atmosphere if emissions are cut? No, not immediately. If we cut emissions, the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere will only increase more slowly. The reduction in emissions must be large and last for a long time before we can see an effect. Imagine that the atmosphere is a bathtub and the greenhouse gases are the water you fill in. Even if you turn off the tap, the bathtub will not run out of water. This is the case with greenhouse gases and CO₂. It takes a long time for CO₂ to break down in the atmosphere. This is the reason why the experts want technology that sucks out greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, in addition to us cutting emissions. The world’s politicians have decided that they will try to limit the warming of the world to 1.5 degrees, compared to how the temperature was before the industrial revolution. Then we must keep the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere below 430 ppm, according to the UN’s climate panel. Saudi Arabia and India Kallbekken points to the decision in Dubai being a compromise. This is what all countries have been able to agree on. – This must be seen as a kind of floor for the level of ambition. These are countries that Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, China and India have been able to agree to. So even those who want the least in the world have approved this, he says. Nevertheless, he believes that the decision will be important, also in the countries that have been most skeptical of the decision. One example is India, which plans to build a number of new coal-fired power plants in the coming years. – It puts political pressure on India. It supports activists who are against the power plants. It can affect the market and investors. So it is important, even if it is not always easy to measure directly, says Kallbekken. Lahn believes that for Saudi Arabia, too, the world looks a little different today than it did before the decision. – It is a little more difficult than before for both Saudi Arabia and other oil and gas producers to claim that fossil energy may well be part of the solution, says Lahn. But the climate crisis will not be resolved by a decision at a climate summit. – It is in the national process, in the national policy in each individual country that it will be seen whether this matters or not, says Bård Lahn. The children’s climate panel meets the Minister for Climate and Environment in Dubai
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