– We will manage it with Haaland and Ødegaard. – No! We are no better. Norway is struggling again. Even with a win against Scotland on Sunday, the team needs help from other nations to go directly to the European Championship. The last time Norway succeeded in a qualification was for the EC in 2000, and in October Tommy Andersen reminded on X/Twitter of the other countries in Europe with the same drought. Click the list below – if you dare. Countries in Europe that have not reached the European Championship or World Cup since 2000 (according to UEFA’s ranking as of 14 November 2023) 18. Israel 22. Cyprus 29. Azerbaijan 30. Moldova 32. Kosovo 33. Kazakhstan 36. Armenia 38. Faroe Islands 39. Liechtenstein 43 .Luxembourg 44. Lithuania 45. Malta 46. Georgia 48. Estonia 49. Belarus 51. Andorra 52. Montenegro 54. Gibraltar 55. San Marino …. 15. Norway Source: Uefa Outside the world, people are scratching their heads. Erling Haaland is wreaking havoc for Manchester City, while Martin Ødegaard is leading Arsenal to the top. Both are involved when Norway loses at home against Scotland. Even with two world stars, Norway can’t fix the steak. Shouldn’t it be different this time? news has spoken to three analytical minds – from Norway, England and Germany – about what has happened to the national team. They assess the tactical balance, playing style and Solbakken’s abilities. And not least: How good these players really are. Completely average – Norway has a team that will simply qualify for the European Championship in 2024. That’s what Bastian Schmitz wrote on X/Twitter when Norway had lost against Spain at Ullevaal in September. He is responsible for the Norwegian leagues at the well-known website Transfermarkt, and has followed Norwegian football for 20 years. Schmitz believes the national team was boasted from 2008 to 2018. – They had two or three players from the Premier League who received too much attention from the Norwegian press. They played at teams such as Blackburn, Fulham and Norwich. It shows respect, but it is not so promising at a high international level, says Schmitz to news. – Today’s national team is not comparable. Players who had been stars in 2010, now end up in the shadow of Haaland and Ødegaard. GOOD ENOUGH STABLE: Here, Haaland celebrates the 1-0 goal during the European Championship qualifier against Georgia at the Ullevaal stadium. Photo: NTB Schmitz is supported by Ben Wells, an Englishman who for several years analyzed Norway’s top two divisions as well as the national team for Football Radar, a company that collects statistics. – I think the team is definitely underperforming now, says Wells. But Frode Lia, who is a football coach as well as a journalist for Fotball.tv and the podcast Chivadze, believes that Norway still has major shortcomings. – Even though we have two of the world’s best players, our weaknesses are so great, and so easy to see through, that we are no more than a completely average national team, says Lia. Lia analyzes Norway in terms of how modern football has become, i.e. faster, stronger and more thoroughly analysed. Today, he says, one is measured to a greater extent by the greatest weakness, and not the greatest strength. MAJOR SHORTCOMINGS: Frode Lia believes there are major weaknesses in the Norwegian national team. Photo: Faysal Ahmed UNDERPERFORMING: Ben Wells believes that Norway has underperformed based on the assumptions. Photo: Ben Wells – Before, a national team could be run by one player, like Sweden with Zlatan in the 2000s. But since football today is analyzed so thoroughly, and the tactics have come so far, you know that your opponents will exploit your weaknesses for all they are worth. – Those weaknesses are more difficult to camouflage. And in that context, Norway is a completely average national team, at least the qualifiers taken as a whole. – So you are not surprised that Norway is struggling to reach the EC? – No. – Big gaps How good are the Norwegian players? news has tried to find an answer. According to Transfermarkt, Norway is number 11 on the list of the most valuable national teams in the world. But that is largely due to Haaland and Ødegaard, and Schmitz says that the values favor younger players, who have several years left and can be sold on. A better way is to measure the level of the players’ clubs. PLAYING FOR BIG CLUBS: Many of the Norwegian national team players play for big, highly ranked foreign teams. Norway’s Sander Berge (left) plays for Premier League club Burnley and Leo Skiri Østigård won the Italian Serie A with Napoli last season. Photo: Fredrik Var The website FiveThirtyEight, which is best known for predicting US presidential elections, has a global ranking of the best clubs in the world. Each club is given a grade between 0 (worst) and 100 (best). The list is not perfect – it was last updated on June 13 – but it can give an indication of the players’ level. news has looked at the clubs of the 11 players with the most minutes on the pitch in the EC qualifiers. If we pit the team against Scotland, the great rival in the battle for second place behind Spain, is Norway better? The results are as follows: The teams of the Norwegian players receive an average grade of 71.2. In Scotland, the average is 66.5. In other words, the Norwegian team plays at a higher level than the Scottish team. Overview of the clubs of Norwegian and Scottish national team players Norway: Ørjan Nyland – Sevilla (68.9) Julian Ryerson – Dortmund (82.9) Stefan Strandberg – Vålerenga (34.7) Leo Østigård – Napoli (83.2) Birger Meling – Copenhagen (58) Patrick Berg – Bodø/Glimt (63) Fredrik Aursnes – Benfica (80) Sander Berge – Burnley (62.9) Martin Ødegaard – Arsenal (83.9) Alexander Sørloth – Villarreal (73.3) Erling Haaland – Manchester City (92) Average: 71.2 Scotland: Angus Gunn – Norwich (45.5) Aaron Hickey – Brentford (77.1) Ryan Porteous – Watford (73.3) Jack Hendry – Cremonese (47.6)* Kieran Tierney – Real Sociedad (77.1) Andy Robertson – Liverpool (83.9) Scott McTominay – Manchester United (79.1) Callum McGregor – Celtic (74.7) Ryan Christie – Bournemouth (59.6) John McGinn – Aston Villa (79.3) Lyndon Dykes – Queens Park Rangers (34.2) Average: 66.5 *Hendry plays for Al-Ettifaq, but the Saudi Pro League is not included in the ranking. His club in 2022–23 was Cremonese, who were relegated from the top tier of Italy. Source: FiveThirtyEight Men: There are big variations behind the averages. In defense, Norway has both Stefan Strandberg and Birger Meling, who play for Vålerenga (34.7) and Copenhagen (58) respectively. In Scotland, four out of five defenders play for teams above 70. And while it can be said that Copenhagen recently beat Manchester United, the level of the Scandinavian leagues is a long way from the elite in Europe. The Scots’ midfield scores slightly higher than Norway’s. The weakest link is striker Lyndon Dykes, but overall the Scots’ talent is more evenly distributed. – It’s not like we have, on an international scale, stars at all levels. Our midfield anchor is a major weakness. There are still big gaps in that national team, says Lia. Some of Norway’s players have also played little for their teams during the qualifiers. – They are the best we have, so it is not a mistake to use them. But the quality drops drastically, says Lia. He draws a parallel to Denmark, who reached the semi-finals of the European Championship in 2021, and are ready for another championship. Lia says that Norway’s stars are clearly better than Denmark’s. – But the worst players for Denmark are considerably better than the worst players for Norway, says Lia. If we look at FiveThirtyEight’s ranking, Denmark gets an average of 72.4. But they only have two players from teams under 70. Norway has five. Overview of the clubs of the Danish national team players Denmark: Kasper Schmeichel – Anderlecht (52.3) Joakim Mæhle – Wolfsburg (70.9) Andreas Christensen – Barcelona (86.4) Simon Kjær – AC Milan (73.3) Joachim Andersen – Crystal Palace (73.5) Andreas Skov Olsen – Club Brugge (61.2) Pierre-Emile Højbjerg – Tottenham (72.1) Christian Nørgaard – Brentford (77.1) Christian Eriksen – Manchester United (79.1) Jonas Wind – Wolfsburg (70.9) Rasmus Højlund – Manchester United (79.1) Average: 72.4 Source: FiveThirtyEight – Galskap Schmitz agrees with Lia in one way. He accepts that a team with 11 consistently good players is better than a team that has to rely on four stars. – But it doesn’t have to be so problematic, he says. – It is the most normal thing in the world that national teams are unbalanced and use players out of position. Even Germany won the World Cup in 2014 with a stopper at left back (Benedikt Höwedes), because a country of 80 million inhabitants could not find a better alternative. Schmitz recalls that countries such as Finland, Northern Ireland and North Macedonia have had similar problems over the past 20 years – and that without stars like Haaland and Ødegaard. – But they have qualified. And Norway has not. So what is Norway doing wrong? SHOULD THE FOCUS CHANGE?: Schmitz believes national team manager Ståle Solbakken should focus on the back four’s correlation. Photo: NTB Schmitz points his finger at Solbakken. He believes it is easier to practice defensive interaction than to compensate for a lack of technique and creativity. Dribbling skills and brilliant passes are something you either have or you don’t. But that the back four hangs together properly, that can be practiced. This should be good news for Norway. So why has the national team conceded goals in 10 official matches in a row? – They lack a tactical identity, says Schmitz. – Solbakken has not been able to develop a stable defensive team that can compensate for individual weaknesses in that area. Wells agrees. – I don’t think Solbakken quite knows what to do with the players. He has not created a proper identity in the team, says Wells. Schmitz is also critical of the match management. He is referring in particular to the important match at home against Scotland in June, where he believes Norway was the best team. There, Haaland scored from the chalk mark after one hour. 1–0. With six minutes left, Solbakken changed three players at once. Out: Erling Haaland, Patrick Berg and Fredrik Aursnes. In: Kristian Thorstvedt, Mats Møller Dæhli and Jørgen Larsen. 87th minute: 1-1. 89th minute: 1-2. In three minutes, the qualifier was turned on its head. Schmitz accuses Solbakken of dissolving the entire structure in midfield at a crucial moment. – Madness, says Schmitz. GAVE THE VICTORY AWAY: Scotland celebrates after the 1-2 goal by Kenny McLean during the European Championship qualifying football match between Norway and Scotland at the Ullevaal stadium. Photo: NTB He became even more worried about the results in the Nations League. There, Norway led the group after four rounds, before throwing away a lead against Slovenia. Then they lost at home to Serbia. Schmitz lacks self-confidence, fighting spirit and mental strength in important situations. – Norway has had fundamental weaknesses in these areas for 20 years, he says. The perfect storm What else could have cost Norway dearly in the qualifiers? Both Lia and Wells believe that the team lacks experience. Wells reminds that the most experienced is Ødegaard, with 55 international matches, and calls the national team “underdeveloped”. – Solbakken has had to bring in many young players at the same time. Then it is difficult to create leadership. There are no players on this team who have extensive experience with the national team. It is a problem, he says. The 11 players with the most minutes in the qualifiers have an average age of 27. Only two are over 30: Nyland and Strandberg (both 33). Wells believes this is one of the reasons why Norway concedes goals late in games. – They need experienced leaders who can calm things down, and who know what needs to be done in those situations. YOUTH: Norway has a young national team. Captain Martin Ødegaard (24) is among the veterans. Photo: NTB Han and Schmitz also think Norway was unlucky with the draw. Spain is Spain, and Schmitz thinks Norway vs. Scotland was 50-50, perhaps with a slight advantage Norway. Wells believes most teams would have struggled against Scotland right now. – This qualifier came at a good time for Scotland, and an unfortunate time for Norway. It’s been a perfect storm, says Wells. Right management? But this is no excuse for Wells. Based on what he has seen, he does not think that Solbakken is the best choice for Norway. – If this group continues to play at a high level, qualifying for a championship should not be a problem. These players have an ocean of talent, and in four years they will be more mature, he says. – Under the right management, the team should be able to qualify very well for the next WC. Schmitz believes that the Eliteserien has made great strides in the past five years, and believes that the national team has a good chance of reaching several championships. Although he is critical of some of the tactical moves during the qualifiers, he believes that Solbakken is the best option “in the context of who is available” right now. – He must take his share of the responsibility if Norway does not reach the EC, says Schmitz. – But I still think he should get the chance to take the team to the WC in 2026.
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How good is Norway, really? – Sport Langlesing
