Trump has cast doubt on America’s NATO involvement in the past. At the weekend he did it again, to strong reactions from European leaders. What is really new in his latest statements? It has been clear ever since Trump had his first days in the White House that he has no deep-felt relationship with the transatlantic cooperation. Article 5 of the NATO pact makes it clear that an attack on one member state is an attack on all. When Trump’s advisers explained this to him, he is said to have asked in shock if this means that the US will have to go to war if Russia attacks Latvia, for example. The very basic principle of the defense alliance was “madness”, Trump claimed at the time. Later, he has several times threatened to withdraw the USA from NATO. He has also explained to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, that “you must understand that if Europe is attacked, we will never help and support you”. ON YOUR OWN HANDS 1: Donald Trump is said to have told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that the US will not defend Europe in a war situation. Photo: AP What is new and disturbing this time is the wording that Trump would “encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want” if a NATO country that did not meet its targets for spending money on defense was attacked. In addition, the context is crucial: Trump’s retelling of his previous statements comes at a time when several European defense chiefs and ministers have warned that the danger of a Russian attack on other European countries is very real. Thus, it is possible to claim that Trump’s election campaign statements are dangerous, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg did in a statement on Sunday evening: “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all our security, including that of the United States, and puts American and European soldiers for increased risk”, as Stoltenberg put it. But hasn’t Trump called Stoltenberg “my biggest fan”? He has done that several times. The background is Trump’s arguments that European NATO countries must pay more for their own defence. Several former US presidents have said the same. All NATO countries have agreed on a target of spending 2 percent of their country’s GDP on defense spending, but only 11 out of 30 member states met the target when NATO published aggregate statistics. MY BIGGEST FAN: Donald Trump has several times referred to Jens Stoltenberg as his biggest fan. Photo: AFP For Trump, this became a mantra, the very core of his NATO involvement when he was president. The others had to pay more. And as Nato shares the view that all countries should meet the goal everyone has agreed on, this was also a case where Stoltenberg could give Trump support. Trump reformulated that support to mean that Stoltenberg was his biggest supporter. It is possible to debate the extent to which increased European defense budgets are solely Trump’s triumph, but as he reiterated at the campaign rally in South Carolina this weekend, there is no room for doubt. “You have to pay. You have to pay your bill. And the money flowed in,” Trump claimed. Does that mean that Trump will continue to support NATO as long as the Europeans spend more money on defense? Well, maybe so. An optimistic interpretation of Trump’s latest statement would be able to conclude like this. Because Trump had some political success with his constant calls to alliance partners to pay more, it is conceivable that this was primarily an election campaign stunt intended to remind voters of how effective Trump’s bombastic style can be. Admittedly an election campaign stunt with consequences, Poland’s defense minister warned on X: “No election campaign is an excuse to play with the alliance’s security” And if it wasn’t just an election campaign stunt? A pessimistic interpretation of Trump’s actions must emphasize that Trump’s latest statements confirm a fundamental dislike of the defense alliance and its principles. When Trump did not take seriously the threats to withdraw the US from NATO when he was president, it was only because he had influential people around him who prevented it, writes author and analyst Anne Appelbaum in an article in The Atlantic. CONCERNED: Former national security adviser in the USA, John Bolton, revealed several of Trump’s dramatic statements about NATO in his memoirs from his time at Trump’s side. Photo: SAUL LOEB These people, sometimes called “the adults in the room”, will not be there in a possible second round with Trump as president. Appelbaum concludes that Trump will undermine the alliance so strongly that in practice it will mean American withdrawal, even though formally it will be difficult for him to make that decision on his own. Because, as Trump said to his national security adviser John Bolton, according to Bolton himself: “I shit in NATO”. Can Europe defend itself without the US’s help? Several European politicians have for several years talked about Europe’s “strategic autonomy”, i.e. the idea that Europe must become able to stand on its own two feet, purely from a security perspective. French President Emmanuel Macron has been the idea’s foremost advocate in recent years. The years with Trump as president meant that more Europeans had such thoughts. IN HIS OWN HAND: French President Emmanuel Macron is a supporter of a more independent European security policy. Photo: AFP From the NATO side, however, the opinion has been that all common European defense efforts must take place in close coordination with NATO, as a supplement, not a replacement. Europe lacks both material, strategy and the ability to coordinate, the assessment has been. In addition, central NATO has been concerned that too much talk of European autonomy will give arguments to those in the US who want to leave the alliance – it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The war in Ukraine has led to a fundamental change in security policy assessments in Europe. There is still a long way to go before a situation where Europe has some defense cooperation on its own that can replace NATO. But there is no doubt that Trump’s latest actions contribute to the topic gaining new relevance. The president of the European Council, Charles Michel, said it clearly: Trump’s statements “underline once again the EU’s need to further develop its strategic autonomy and invest in its defence”. Does the US need NATO? Yes, that has in any case been Jens Stoltenberg’s main point on several trips to the USA in recent years. In the speech he gave to Congress in the spring of 2019, the NATO Secretary General argued that NATO has been good for Europe, but also for the United States. “It’s good to have friends,” Stoltenberg added at the time. What kind of friend Donald Trump will be if he were to become president again is still an open question.
ttn-69
How dangerous are Donald Trump’s NATO statements? – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
