The Center Party advances from the previous poll to 11.1 percent and records the year’s best on Norstat’s national municipal election barometer for news and Aftenposten. Whether the turnout will actually be worthy of a large and heavy diesel tractor, or something more close to a toy version, of course remains to be seen. If, on the other hand, one calculates the party’s support based on the sum of the local measurements that have so far been carried out in several of the country’s municipalities, Vedum’s party comes out significantly worse. The website Pollofpolls calculates a national tendency of around 7 percent support for the Center Party. An election result of 11.1 percent would be SP’s second best municipal election after 1995. After two years of government power, it will be a good result, even if it is a decline. A turnout of 7 percent would be the second worst since the 90s. National municipal poll June 2023Party SupportChange28.7%HøyreH−0.622.5%ArbeiderpartietAP+0.411.1%SenterpartietSP+2.39.4%FremskrittspartietFRP+0.95.3%Environment Party GreenMDG+0.34.9%Socialist Liberal PartySV−2, 23.9%VenstreV−0.53.9%Kristelig FolkepartiKRF+0.43.5%RødtR−0.22.2%Industrial and Business PartyINP+0.61.3%Pensionist PartyPP−0.30.4%Norwegian DemocratsDEM− 0.23.1%AndreAndre−0.7995 interviews done in the period 24.5.23–30.5.23. Margins of error from 0.5–3.6 pp. Source: Norstat Right now the Center Party support is perhaps primarily a statistical challenge. The closer we get to the autumn election results, the more Sp’s support will show us which of two different political landscapes is correct: Is Sp still a big and fine tractor, or driven into a ditch in the face of government power? If SP’s support is much smaller than nationally carried out surveys suggest, it means that some other parties must be bigger than the surveys now show. Especially Ap. The Conservative Party and FRP lost voters to the Center Party four years ago. It will also mean that SP is perhaps more exposed to government attrition than we have seen so far. If Sp actually maintains a large, local support – also in the areas where they made a lot of progress four years ago – it shows a more lasting change in the local political landscape. The national support that appears on the election watch’s big screen in September is of course important, but for the Center Party it is the power base the party is left with in the country’s municipalities that determines the success of the election. The negotiations about positions and policies after the election are more important, because in terms of experience, Sp as a centrist party comes out well from such negotiations. If the majority in the municipal council swings from red to blue, it does not have to mean anything for the Center Party’s impact and influence. Therefore, it is actually not just the size that matters for the Center Party. Both the Center Party and the Labor Party must make good use of the election campaign. Together, the governing parties have 286,000 voters from 2019 on the fence. Having to convince 28,600 voters a day until the election is no small job for a government that has struggled over time with its reputation and voter turnout. It will also be useful for the governing parties to bring back the 38,000 voters who have gone to the Right. Right now it may seem like a more demanding job. At the same time, things can turn around quickly for the Conservative Party when the election campaign heats up over the summer. Støre and the core voters The Labor Party’s internal happiness over the national meeting has not yet spilled over to the voters. In this single survey, both Ap and Sp hold up better locally than nationally. The two parties have many local mayors who have profiled the parties on local issues over time. It is obviously an advantage that can support the fact that the governing parties can do better when there are local council elections than in a parliamentary election. If you look at Ap’s government attrition, there is reason to note that Ap voters go to the Conservative Party to a greater extent when it comes to parliamentary elections than municipal council elections. For Ap’s metropolitan election campaign, this could minimize the loss, if the trend holds. The Labor Party had its worst municipal election since xxx four years ago. The reason for this was, among other things, that Ap lost core voters. Only 59 percent of Aps 2015 voters voted for the party in 2019, according to the voter survey. Ap has just as low loyalty in our surveys now, and then from a lower starting point with fewer voters in 2019 than in 2015. Ap’s mobilization of core voters is too poor to make a good choice. The party should target its election campaign messages to reach very defined groups if they are to have a chance to grow. Solberg and the cannibals From a bus seat on an election campaign tour, Erna Solberg tells news that she fears cannibalization on the right. The fear is well-founded in the big cities, which are important to the Right. The party must look at a fragmentation of various small parties, particularly on the bourgeois side and/or in clear opposition to the Labor board locally and nationally. The Industrial and Business Party, the Norwegian Democrats, the Pensioners’ Party, the People’s Party FNB, the Conservatives, the Bergen List, the Kleppe List and other local lists will be able to change the picture on the bourgeois side in the largest cities in the country. In terms of voters, this is a challenge for the FRP, which will probably lose more votes than the Conservative Party in terms of support. But given that the Conservative Party takes over the management of several large cities, it is the Conservative Party that can face the challenge of bringing together a more fragmented bourgeois side. Getting a governing majority can be more demanding. The Industrial and Business Party has its best national poll with 2.2 percent support. In January, the party received 1.2 percent support. The Conservative Party has attracted 250,000 voters since the last local council election. It is understandable if the Conservative Party fears being in shape too soon. It is too early to say how many of these voters will both show up on election day and actually choose to put the Conservative Party ticket in the ballot box. 172,000 of the newly recruited Conservative voters did not vote four years ago. The head start is just a head start. The victory is 101 days away, for those who can collect it. The parties’ support at the Storting election: Labor 18.7 (-1.4), Frp 13.4 (+2.8), Conservative 31 (-1.6), KrF 2.9 (-0.9), Red 6, 6 (+1.2), Sp 7.1 (+0.3), SV 7.4 (-1.1), Left 4.6 (+0.9), MDG 3.2 (-0.1 ), INP 3.3 (+1.4) Others 1.8 (-1.5)
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How big a tractor does he actually have? – Speech
