Just before Easter, the Norwegian Public Roads Administration presented its proposal for a priority list for new road projects in the 12-year period 2025–2036. The list was based on expected socio-economic benefit. At the top of the list is Trona Hordfast. The 56 kilometer long motorway will provide ferry-free E39 between Stavanger and Bergen. Price tag: NOK 46 billion. The project includes a bridge between Stord and Tysnes, and a gigantic bridge over the Bjørnafjorden. In contrast to most road projects in Norway, Hordfast was estimated to have a positive socio-economic benefit. But then the Ministry of Transport asked the Swedish Road Administration to recalculate. An enormous bridge over the Bjørnafjord will replace one of two ferry connections between Bergen and Stavanger on the E39. Illustration: Statens vegvesen/Dissing+Weitling The climate target changes the utility value Why should greenhouse gas emissions from Norwegian roads in 2030 be 55 per cent lower than in 1990? That is the goal the governing powers have set. What socio-economic benefit will Hordfast and the other ten projects have if at the same time measures are to be implemented which will ensure that the climate target is achieved? The Swedish Road Administration provides, for example, that petrol and diesel must then cost NOK 50 per litre. And that tolls or other means must ensure zero growth in car traffic in the big cities. Then the traffic on the planned vegans will be markedly less. Thus, the calculation for the social benefit also becomes quite different. – Expensive fossil fuel means that the benefit to road users decreases somewhat. This results in reduced traffic and thus less benefit from the road project, says Jan Fredrik Lund. The department director in the Norwegian Public Roads Administration leads their work on the National Transport Plan (NTP) 2025–2036. This is how it looks today; cars, goods and passengers are transported by ferry across the Bjørnafjorden as part of the European road E39 along the coast. Photo: SIMON S. BRANDSETH Especially for Hordfast The new calculation has a particularly negative effect on the usefulness of Hordfast. It will be reduced by NOK 3.4 billion, from a plus of NOK 1.9 billion to a minus of NOK 1.5 billion, according to the Swedish Road Administration’s new calculation. – For the eleven projects we have analysed, the impact will be greatest for Hordfast, says Lund. The main reason is that the calculations for Hordfast are a multiple of the traffic compared to the number of cars on today’s ferries. When such high numbers have to be adjusted downwards, the so-called benefit for road users is significantly less. – This is a large project with a lot of benefits for road users in the first place. The change in road user benefit will thus be relatively large, explains Lund. The usefulness of the road project has been reduced, the latest calculations for the Road Administration show. Photo: Cato Heldal Kristensen / news NOK 7 billion less useful The traffic benefit of Hordfast has so far been estimated at NOK 31 billion. The measure, which is to cut emissions by 55 per cent, also reduces this benefit by NOK 7 billion. – The project goes from being a little positive to a little negative. With the new calculations, Hordfast moves down one notch on our priority list. But it is still a relatively profitable project in the road portfolio, says Lund. – Is it still economically profitable? – No, but there are very few road projects in Norway. Before Easter, the Swedish Road Administration advised prioritizing the start of construction for Hordfast before the year 2030. But Lund cannot answer whether the new calculations mean that construction will not start before that time. – If Hordfast is moved one step down, it will be somewhat later. If it is given priority at all, because it is ultimately a political issue. I think words don’t say everything Øyvind Halleraker, day-to-day manager of Hordfast AS, thinks the new calculations have nothing to say for the project. – I think people here look completely away from the positive climate effect you get when the ferries are taken away. Driving a ferry through the water is very energy-intensive. Also if she’s going to go on a stream, he says. He is open about the fact that the project will lead to encroachment on nature. But when it comes to emissions, he believes the calculations are not accurate. He has asked for the supporting material from the Swedish Road Administration. – In 10 years, emissions problems from cars will no longer be relevant. They roll almost friction-free, he says. County mayor in Vestland, Jon Askeland (Sp), thinks it’s a shame that the Swedish Road Administration has only looked at a few projects. – This does not give me the full benefit since they have only looked at the Road Administration’s priority projects, he says. He had wanted climate calculations for between the new road and railway from Bergen to Voss, among other things. – It is still too early to say what significance this will have for Hordfast, Askeland believes. It is the Storting that will adopt the National Transport Plan next year. In addition to the reduced estimate for societal benefit, the general price increase for construction and construction has meant that the Swedish Road Administration recently updated the cost estimate for Hordfast by NOK 4.7 billion, to NOK 46 billion.
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Hordfast, which will provide ferry-free E39 across the Bjørnafjorden, has a negative social benefit – news Vestland
