A municipal election result of 23.3 per cent does not deserve to be painted in fondant on a cake with a rose on Youngstorget. It will be a decrease from the previous local council election, which was the worst ever for the Labor Party. What saved the mood was that Ap initially retained power in important big cities and negotiated a not so crazy 148 mayoral posts across the country. It means more than the national voter turnout that flickers across the TV screen on election night. Power lies in local positions, not national percentages. This is how the electorate would have voted in municipal elections, compared to the election results in 2019: Source: Norstat for news and Aftenposten. The turnout is compared to the overall national turnout in the municipal elections 2019. Big cities at stake Should Labor Party lose big cities and other important municipalities, there will be a difficult aftermath in the party for Støre. Oslo, Tromsø and Trondheim are certainly within reach, despite historically low national support. It seems to be worse in Bergen, Bodø and Kristiansand, Drammen and Sandnes, which Ap governs today. Here, of course, local measurements for the relevant municipalities are better pointers than a measurement such as the one we are presenting today. A municipal election result of 23.3 percent is worthy of a sweet cake compared to Ap’s hollow-dry pre-Christmas polls. Compared to the December average of 17.8, one can sense the contours of a government project in greater crisis than the grassroots of the parties in meeting voters in local everyday life. When in the same month we asked about voting in both municipal council elections and parliamentary elections, Ap received a support of 19.4 in parliamentary elections (up from 2.3 from December) and thus 23.3 in municipal council elections. Such an explanation is certainly convenient to resort to when you have to motivate party members in Ap and Sp to run an election campaign, but in any case an unsatisfactory certificate for the two parties in the long run. Should Ap lose big cities and other important municipalities, there will be a difficult aftermath in the party for Støre. Photo: Jorunn Hatling / news Sp also does better in municipal elections (9.2 per cent) than in parliamentary elections (5.9 per cent). In contrast to (and in places at the expense of) the Labor Party, Sp made its very best municipal council election ever with 14.5 percent in 2019. Should the support in September be like today’s poll, it will still be the second best municipal council election in the 2000s for Vedums party. The 19 result gave Sp 131 mayoral chains. Several of them will probably have to be given to competitors if this is the election result, but as a centrist party, Sp locally tends to have a better starting point for negotiations with more avenues to go than Ap. The Center Party’s electoral landslide four years ago was seen as a significant part of a larger protest wave. In the cities it was often the issue of tolls, in the rural areas opposition to centralization in a number of areas. The SPS 19 result was indicative of Vedum’s growth and what was possible in the run-up to the general election two years later. A downturn now can quickly be read in the same way, with the opposite sign. This is how the voters would vote in the general election, compared to the December poll: Source: Norstat for news and Aftenpostten What happens to the protest voters? The 2019 protest election was won by the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party, which for various reasons lost support and power in various places. Newcomer FNB and other toll opponents made startlingly good choices in several large cities. Additional “Other” parties such as the Democrats and local lists or initiatives also drew voters from the established parties. “Other” lists than the parties in the Storting received a total of 7.9 percent of the vote four years ago. It is historically high. The average for the 03–15 elections was 5.6 per cent. When the decline is not greater than 0.7 percentage points, it is worth keeping an eye on for the larger parties. What happens to 2019’s protest voters this year is an intriguing question. The Democrats, the Industry and Business Party, the Pensioners’ Party, the Health Party, the People’s Party FNB and the Conservatives (formerly the Christian Party) receive support between 1.0 and 1.4 and 1.0, which must be seen in the light of a margin of error of around 1.0 percent . It will be a sensation if any party repeats its support for FNB, even if it should be possible for the Industrial Party to gather votes on electricity policy this year. The Conservatives as election winners Should the Conservatives clock in to an election result this autumn of 26.8 per cent, the party will be a superb election winner in terms of both progress and results. In the 2000s, only beaten by the election result in 2011 of 28 percent. Should the Conservative Party clock in to an election result this autumn of 26.8 per cent, the party will be a supreme election winner in terms of both progress and results. Photo: Håvard Nyhus Høyre was in power and took power in many important cities that year. In many ways, this was the foreshadowing of the election victory in 2013. In the same way as Labor, the Conservative Party will still be most concerned with winning the big cities. Especially Oslo, Bergen and “the eternal problem for the Right”, Trondheim. The logic of municipal elections There is not one municipal election, but more than 350 of them. They deserve to be taken seriously with their often local agenda, local mayoral candidates and far from being reduced to primarily being a referendum on the government’s efforts. At the same time, this year, in particular, there will be tension linked to how the governing parties do it. The election campaign can be characterized as much by wallet issues as expensive time and electricity prices, such as new swimming pools, school closures and property tax. For a record weak government, there is hope that local issues and people can get voters off the fence. This is the only way it can turn out to be cake.
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Hope in the small – demanding in the big – Expression
