Ever since it became clear that Turkey and its president Recep Tayyip Erdogan would not immediately approve Sweden’s application for membership in NATO, the summit in Vilnius on 11 and 12 July has been a kind of “deadline”. All countries must say yes before a new member can be admitted. Both Swedish politicians, NATO’s secretary general and heads of state from a number of NATO countries believe that this time should be the “ambition” for when Sweden (also) is admitted as a member of NATO. TO OSLO: The Swedish foreign minister will meet his Turkish counterpart in Oslo this week. Photo: Reuters According to a number of sources, among them Sweden’s former state. and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, there is optimism in the US capital Washington. Turkish emissaries apparently promise that “the situation will be resolved relatively quickly”. In Oslo this week, Swedish and Turkish officials will discuss the Nato issue in private. It happens at official level, as the Turkish foreign minister does not come to Oslo. But it can still be difficult to manage the “ambition”. Turkish President Erdogan still believes that Sweden has not fulfilled all the points in the Madrid agreement from last year. There, both Sweden and Finland undertook, among other things, to: Cooperate with Turkey in the fight against the PKK. Extradite a number of people Turkey claims are terrorists Lift the arms export ban to Turkey. Could something have changed after the election victory? The opponent would be in the west. President Erdogan has particularly struggled at home in the last year. The economy is in shambles. People can’t afford it. There is great dissatisfaction among most people. But when activists hung up a doll representing the president in Stockholm in January. Or when Rasmus Paludan burned the Koran in front of the Turkish embassy, Erdogan could show that he was a leader who put Turkish and partly also Muslim issues high on the international agenda. Among other things, there were large protests against the burning of the Koran. There is no doubt that Erdogan’s opponent, opposition leader Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, would pursue a more Western-oriented policy. With him as president, most Turkey experts believe that Sweden would have been approved as quickly as possible. LOST: Kemal Kiliçdaroglu narrowly lost the presidential election in Turkey. Photo: Reuters But there was a second round of voting. It took two weeks to complete. So finally Erdogan won. This makes many people now wonder. Will this delay the NATO process even more? The relationship with Russia The NATO issue has had no great significance in the run-up to the Turkish election campaign. Much more has been involved here. Price rise and people’s financial problems. Turkey’s failing economy. The consequences of the earthquake in February. Whether the authorities are willing to prevent similar incidents. Turkey’s “special relationship”, as Erdogan referred to its relationship with Russia as recently as 19 May, has not affected the election campaign in the same way. MEET OFTEN: Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan have met a number of times. Also after the former started a full-scale war throughout Ukraine in February 2022. Here from August last year. Photo: AP But Erdogan has, among other things, refused to introduce sanctions in line with the EU countries against Russia. Turkey also did not send any head of state to the Council of Europe summit on 16 and 17 May. The deputy foreign minister went here. Turkey will be remembered for something else. Namely that they were one of six countries that did not sign an agreement. Here they would undertake to create a register of war crimes committed by Russia. In Ukraine. ONE OF SIX: Turkey was one of six countries in the Council of Europe that failed to sign the agreement on the registration of Russian war crimes in Ukraine. The other five were: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Hungary. Photo: John MacDougall / AFP But even though the relationship with Russia is “special”, and the need to protect Turkish and Muslim values, also outside the country’s borders, is great for President Erdogan. So the fact that Erdogan has been re-elected does not necessarily mean a further training of Sweden’s NATO application. Erdogan, for example, approved Finland’s NATO application and thereby doubled the NATO countries’ border with Russia by 1,340 Finnish kilometers. And the US has now decided to sell F16 fighter jets to Turkey. Something Erdogan has long wanted. But note that only when Sweden is admitted as a member of NATO. But the question is what strategy Erdogan has for the NATO summit in Vilnius in mid-July. FLAG HOIST: In July, Lithuania’s capital will host (at least) 31 NATO countries when the annual summit is added to Vilnius. Photo: Reuters If Erdogan has a plan to create as much unrest and uncertainty as possible at the meeting, and believes that he benefits from the fact that many of the talks will be about the relationship between Turkey and Sweden, then he will possibly wait to let Parliament approve the application. The question is what he will gain from it vis-a-vis the other member states. ERRATIC: Sweden’s former Minister of State and Foreign Affairs Carl Bildt believes there are positive signals from Washington at the moment, but points out that Erdogan is erratic. Photo: Sören Andersson / TT / NTB scanpix If Erdogan, on the other hand, will receive positive attention at the meeting, and perhaps be partly hailed as a contributor to stability and security in the North Atlantic regions, then he will let Sweden into NATO in time before the summit . The most disturbing thing is that there are few who dare to predict. Because as Carl Bildt summed it up in SVT’s Morgonstudion: “We have learned earlier that Erdogan is a rather erratic gentleman”
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Hope for progress in the Swedish NATO process – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
