Since Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October, they have warned of an imminent ground invasion. Several thousand civilians have been killed and injured on both sides. Large parts of Gaza are in ruins after Israeli airstrikes. – There is a clear asymmetric power relationship between Hamas and Israel. It is a state against a guerrilla group, like comparing the United States and the Viet Cong. That’s what Erik Skare, professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Oslo, says. One of the world’s largest military powers, Israel is among the countries that spend the most money on their military. In 2022, they had a budget of 23.4 billion dollars, which is 4.5 percent of the gross domestic product. They are in second place in the world in spending the most funds on the military per inhabitant, only behind Qatar. – It is very special. This means that generations have been thoroughly militarized. Most of them have a close and close relationship with the military, says Tormod Heier, professor at the Norwegian Armed Forces College. Israel has called up 300,000 reservists after the attack on 7 October. Photo: AFP Israel has had compulsory first-time services for women and men for several decades, with the exception of Orthodox Jews. In 2023, Israel has 169,500 personnel in the military, with a reserve force of 465,000. After the war broke out, Israel called up 300,000 of its reserve forces and stationed them near the Gaza Strip. – Israel feels that they have an existential threat buried under the ground, both physically and psychologically. Hamas has no military capacity to defeat the Israeli military forces on an open battlefield, says Heier. Taxes, crypto and aid We know less about Hamas’s finances and weapons capacity. Several point to support from Iran and Qatar, as well as tax revenue on contraband goods and support through cryptocurrency as their sources of income. In an interview with Russia Today on October 8, a leading Hamas member, Ali Baraka, said that “first and foremost it is Iran that gives us money and weapons”, writes NBC News. An estimate from a former specialist in the American counter-terrorist group says Hamas has a budget of around 300 million dollars. 100 million of them will come from Iran, according to the US. Other estimates vary from 100 to 350 million dollars, both from Israeli and Palestinian sources. – Iran supports the military wing of Hamas. Weapons, equipment, as well as training of soldiers, says Skare. – We know very little about how much this is. Simply because they are state secrets, he says. Iran supports Hamas militarily, while Qatar supports Gaza with aid. Since 2014, Qatar has provided over 100 million dollars in civilian aid. – Qatar pays the salaries of the citizens of Gaza. Otherwise they would have collapsed. It is primarily aid. 80 per cent of the population is completely dependent on it, says Skare. Israel has several times closed crypto accounts abroad, which are said to be linked to Hamas’s investments. In 2021, Israel closed 190 of them. The size of the military wing of Hamas is also not easy to quantify. Various sources say they number between 20,000 and 50,000 men. According to the CIA’s encyclopedia, there will be between 20,000 and 25,000 fighters in 2023. – There is a clear asymmetric power relationship between Hamas and Israel, says Skare. An overview from 2021 of where the Israeli military (IDF) believes Hamas has tunnels in Gaza. Photo: Source: IDF Apart from finances and capacity, Skare points in particular to one of Hamas’ weaknesses: – Hamas is hermetically sealed inside Gaza. The tunnel system is based on the recognition that Hamas cannot beat Israel in the air, at sea or on land. A technological superpower – Israel has few inhabitants compared to neighboring countries. They are therefore forced to focus on quality. They have a structure on defense that is driven by technology. A peculiarly Israeli way of waging war, says Tormod Heier. Israel has, among other things, 339 combat aircraft, 30 of which are F-35 fighters, 2,200 armored vehicles, 142 helicopters, 5 submarines and “Iron Dome”, an advanced air defense system. According to the IISS, they must also sit on nuclear weapons. “Iron Dome”, Israel’s advanced air defense system shoots down most of the rockets Hamas sends at Israel. Photo: AP – They are among the world’s best. On an open battlefield, Hamas has no chance, says Heier. – Israel is not only one of the world’s largest military powers, but also a high-tech state. They are a premise supplier in technology development. They use the best of modern weapons, says Erik Skare. We know less about smuggling weapons into Gaza Hamas’s weapons. Where they come from is also uncertain. – Right up until the end of the 2000s, Hamas launched home-made rockets, which were amateurish. They had a psychological effect, more than they could do physical damage, says Skare. Two Israeli women were held hostage in Gaza after Hamas invaded Israel. Here they are together with the Hamas fighters when they were released. Photo: Reuters In recent times, engineers and militants from Hamas have reportedly been trained in Iran to assemble weapons. The Wall Street Journal wrote that 500 Hamas fighters were in a training camp in Iran in September. – Israel is a nuclear power, and Hamas a guerrilla group. That does not mean that Hamas cannot do great damage, but Hamas is not, and has never been, an existential threat to Israel, says Skare. The military wing of Hamas back in 2012. Photo: Reuters On Hamas’s premise, Hamas is inferior when it comes to weapons, the number of people and finances in the war. This does not mean that the announced ground invasion of Gaza will be a simple operation for Israel. – The fact that Israel is superior forces Hamas to constantly avoid Israel’s strong points, says Heier. One weakness with Israel in particular, Hamas is trying to exploit: – Israel has relied too much on technology and too little on people. Drones, satellites, and signals intelligence, and have completely forgotten human intelligence. Hamas has proven to be very good at keeping its cards close to its chest. The fact that the war is taking place in densely populated Gaza is a strength for Hamas, he says. 2.3 million people live in the Gaza Strip. The area is the same size as Mjøsa at 360 square kilometers. – Israel will be forced to abandon their well-protected armored vehicles, and risk an adversary dressed in civilian clothes in one of the world’s most difficult combat environments. Photo: AFP – The war cannot be resolved militarily – If many civilian lives are lost, it will create enormous anger in the Arab world. Then the leader may be forced to break diplomatic processes with Israel. This is Israel’s biggest opponent, Heier believes. Several of the neighboring countries have cooperated with and at times had a good relationship with Israel. – The regional balance of power, which in recent years has favored Israel, may then go in favor of Hamas out of pure sympathy. It is Israel’s greatest threat. Heier therefore does not see a military solution to the conflict. – Many civilian lives will be lost. This war cannot be resolved militarily. Israel will probably win the battle in Gaza, but they will lose the war. There needs to be a two-state solution, where one forms an Israeli and a Palestinian state, says Heier.
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Here are the muscle groups in the war between Hamas and Israel – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
