No one should be surprised that violence flares up again between Israel and the Palestinians. A deadlocked conflict does not mean a resolved conflict. However, the way in which Hamas has initiated this changes everything. To summarize briefly: In the morning hours today, Hamas and other militant groups fired around 5,000 rockets at Israel. The number is large, missile attacks in themselves are nothing new. What followed, however, is something we have never seen before. Hundreds of militant and armed Palestinians poured into southern Israel. Some even gliders and hang gliders – and the fences separating Gaza from Israel were destroyed. One person has been killed and at least three injured after the rocket attack against Israel. Inside Israel, Hamas went on the attack. In the middle of the streets they opened fire on civilians and military. They also captured several Israelis, again both civilians and military. Several of these are now being held prisoner inside Gaza. It is difficult to exaggerate the significance of these images of civilian Israelis, women and men, being brutally taken into Gaza. Israeli hijacked bulldozers take down the border fence and people pour through. Disaster For Israel and the Israeli government, this is a disaster. The attack must have taken months to prepare and many must have known what was brewing. Nevertheless, the intelligence services did not pick it up – or the information reached the system – so that Israel could prepare or prevent it. The bloody attack comes exactly 50 years after the last time Israel was surprised by Arab forces. At that time, Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel, in what the Israelis call the Yom Kippur War, but which the Egyptians call the October War. At the time, Israel was able to fight back after being hard pressed, but the balance of power had nevertheless changed and it ended with Israel giving the Sinai Peninsula back to Egypt in the Camp David negotiations that ended in 1978. Make an impression It is far too early to say how today’s attack will end. Hamas is not a powerful neighboring state as Egypt and partly Syria were, but the images that are now pouring out on social media – of a vulnerable and weak Israel that is unable to protect its own – make an impression all over the world, especially among the neighboring countries. In the short term, it will mean war. Israel is mobilizing its reserve forces and will strike back hard, but this will not be easy. Now they must first gain control over their own territory, then they will, by all accounts, have to enter Gaza with large infantry forces. That makes them vulnerable to Hamas attacks. They also have all the Israeli prisoners and hostages into Gaza they have to take into account. Hamas has also had time to prepare for a long time and is ready for battle, while the Israelis must mobilize and move into enemy territory. Uncertainties It’s going to cost them dearly. It is also happening against a backdrop of strong political division within Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, together with his far-reaching partners, has pushed through a controversial legal reform. Israel will certainly rally against the common threat now, but the Israeli starting point is not very good. Netnayahu and his defense minister will also be exposed to fierce political pressure for not having been able to prevent this before it happened. There are also many other uncertainties. We have witnessed an increase in violence also in the occupied West Bank where the Palestinian Authority has control. Will we see armed confrontations there as well? Will Hezbollah in Lebanon join the war and attack Israel from the north? What about Iran whose Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said he is proud of the attack? Perhaps today’s attack also has something to do with the negotiations that have taken place between the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel regarding a possible Saudi recognition of Israel. In any case, it will be difficult to carry out in the short term after today’s attack and the warfare that will follow. Previous conflicts between Israel have often been a gradual build-up with opportunities to go down several paths, including finding ceasefires and temporary solutions. We are not there now. On the contrary, we have two parties that have their backs against the wall in their own way and no other way out than military confrontation. Hamas has bet everything on this attack, Israel and its political leadership must fight back hard. This means that we must all prepare for a new war in the Middle East, and a war that will be even more brutal than previous confrontations. The civilian population in Israel has been hit hard in today’s attack. All experience suggests that the highest price in the coming days and weeks will be paid by the Palestinian civilian population in Gaza.
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Hamas’ attack on Israel changes everything – Statement
