The problem is that you rarely manage to see these turning points as they happen. They are often easier to see in retrospect. According to the president, Ukrainian forces have now recaptured over 6,000 square kilometres. Russian soldiers retreat in panic, although they officially call it a “regrouping”. – The Ukrainian advance was a turning point, but perhaps not the turning point itself, says chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI). Nevertheless, European history since the fall of the wall in 1989 has taught us that the unthinkable can happen – and change the course of history. There is hardly an entire house in the town of Izium, according to Ukrainian authorities. It was an important support point in Russia’s plans to take control of the entire Donetsk region. Photo: JUAN BARRETO / AFP So where do we stand this time? Here are three points that argue that Ukraine’s storm offensive in Kharkiv Oblast is decisive. And three points that speak against. They are not exhaustive, but summarize many of the discussions surrounding the war right now. Three points that argue against the offensive being decisive 1: Putin has pressure funds in reserve Up until now, Russia has attacked critical infrastructure such as power plants, water supply and mobile networks to a limited extent. At the weekend, large parts of Kharkiv county were left without electricity and water after attacks with Russian cruise missiles. President Vladimir Putin may choose to black out more, ensure that more people freeze in the coming winter. Or ensure that people cannot use mobile phones and the internet. He can also choose full mobilization of around 2 million reservists. But it won’t be popular at home. A gas plant in Kharkiv on fire on June 21. Last weekend, Russia attacked several power supply facilities and blacked out large parts of Kharkiv city. Photo: LEAH MILLIS / Reuters Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says there is currently “no discussion” about whether to go for full mobilization. In the last instance, Putin may also use nuclear weapons. It only takes one bomb for the Ukrainians to believe there may be more. 2: Crimea is almost impossible to take by force If the Ukrainians should succeed in stopping Russia’s attempt to take full control in Donbas, and even if they manage to recapture Kherson, Crimea will still remain. The majority there want to be part of Russia, as they have been in practice since 2014. Even before the annexation, Russians made up around 60 percent of the population. Since then there has been a large immigration from Russia. According to a Russian opinion poll from 2019, three out of four believed that the incorporation into Russia was “very or quite positive”. The Ukrainians have few combative allies in Crimea. At the same time, the will to fight among those who support Putin is probably greater than anywhere else in Ukraine. In order to attack Krym, the Ukrainian army must also take over the narrow area of land Perekop. At its narrowest, the promontory is only eight kilometers wide. Then they will be extremely vulnerable. The missile cruiser Moskva was the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The ship was sunk in a Ukrainian attack on 14 April. Here in the port city of Sevastopol on 16 November last year. Photo: ALEXEY PAVLISHAK / Reuters A military showdown over Crimea would probably be a bloodbath like no other. A game the Ukrainians would very likely lose. 3: Absence of willingness to compromise on both sides Neither Putin nor Zelenskyj seem interested in peace negotiations at the moment. There is no indication that the Ukrainian progress will change anything about this. Zelenskyy has repeatedly said that he will not give up a piece of the country to Russia. Putin’s spokesman said on Monday that the “special operation” would continue until “the initial goals are achieved.” That is, the “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine and the incorporation of the Donbas region. Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting of the National Security Council on 9 September. Photo: Gavriil Grigorov / AP The Russian president claims that this is necessary to prevent Ukraine from being incorporated into NATO. Besides, Ukraine has never really been a country, he claimed in his speech three days before the attack. In other words, there is much that speaks against Ukrainian military progress determining the outcome of the war. Three points that speak for the offensive being decisive 1. The Russian supply lines have been cut On two fronts, Ukrainian forces have now succeeded in cutting or throttling the Russian supply lines. The soldiers need food, ammunition and spare parts. This applies both from the north via the railway junction Kupjansk to Izium. It slows down the possibility of taking control of the rest of Donetsk county. The Russian soldiers have not made any significant progress for several weeks. Now it becomes even less likely that they will make it. A Ukrainian soldier inspects an abandoned Russian ammunition depot in Izium. 12.9. Photo: HANDOUT / AFP Supply lines have also been cut in the south. The Ukrainians have destroyed four bridges over the Dnipro and Inhulets rivers in Kherson county. All Russian supplies must now be transported on ferries, preferably under the cover of night. In practice, this means that Russian forces north and west of the Dnipro are virtually isolated from their comrades in arms. The lack of supplies makes it unlikely that Russian ground troops can counterattack. 2. The Russian fighting morale is greatly weakened A part of the Russian soldiers in Kherson are now negotiating with the Ukrainian authorities to surrender, according to a spokesperson for the Ukrainian forces in the south. Sources that the independent Russian online newspaper Vazjnye Istorii has spoken to claim that there were between 20,000 and 25,000 Russian soldiers on this side of the Dnipro when the Ukrainian counter-offensive started. The information that Russian soldiers want to surrender has not been confirmed by independent sources. In contrast, there are many photos of Russian military equipment left in rivers and along the roadside in Kherson. Eyewitnesses and bloggers have told of a Russian retreat that appeared chaotic. A Russian military helicopter during an exercise with the Pacific Fleet outside the city of Vladivostok, September 5. Some have criticized the fact that large resources were used to practice in the east while the war is in a critical phase in the west. Photo: KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP Right-wing nationalists who initially support the attack on Ukraine criticize what is happening on the ground and the strategic capabilities of the General Staff on the messaging app Telegram. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims it is about regrouping. Now Putin’s Ukraine strategy is openly criticized on Russian TV. A former parliamentarian says Putin was misled by his advisers and calls for peace talks. Another debater says it is no wonder that the Ukrainians do not welcome Russian soldiers. After all, Russia’s leadership does not recognize Ukraine as a nation. Several local politicians, including in St. Petersburg and Moscow, go even further. In a letter to the National Assembly, they demand the president’s resignation. They also believe he should be prosecuted for treason. The reason is, among other things, that he destroys combat-ready units in the Russian army with his “special operation”. Several local politicians have been questioned by the police, but no one has been arrested so far. A woman in front of the graves of Russian soldiers killed in the war in Ukraine. From Volzhsky outside Volgograd, May 26. Photo: AP 3. Putin and the defense leadership understand they have problems It is very rare for anyone in the Russian public to criticize President Putin. Now the criticism is coming from several quarters. From the nationalist right, he is criticized for not ordering full mobilization. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a comment today that such statements are an example of “pluralism”. – Russians generally support the president, said Peskov. It is possible that is still the case. But now it is visible to everyone, including in Russia, that Putin and the Russian defense leadership are going through defeat after defeat. Putin never publicly admits that he has been wrong. But he would like to win or make it look like he has won. President Putin during the Zapad 2017 military exercise in September five years ago. At that time, the war in eastern Ukraine was far less intense. Photo: SPUTNIK / Reuters So where does that take him now? In the short term to more violence, to appear offensive. Yesterday, the message came that the Russian defense forces have launched a “massive attack” with air, missile and artillery forces along the entire front line. But in the longer term, can Putin try to find a way out of the war? Now the discussion about what happens on the battlefield is underway in full public view. Among his own officers there are certainly divided opinions about what is being said. If Putin now tries to stop the discussions by force, it is unclear what consequences this could have. Not least because critics on both the right and the left have established themselves with hundreds of thousands of followers on social media. Almost no one knows what is being discussed internally in the Kremlin. Most people probably believe that Putin will continue as before. Respond to counterforce with more military force. Attacks on civilian structures so that the war continues. Maybe for many more years. Then perhaps the Ukrainian counter-offensive is just one of several turning points.
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Great victory for Ukraine, but unlikely to decide the war – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
