He could not believe his eyes when the election day poll was published in the Netherlands on Wednesday evening. With 35 mandates, Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party PVV was set to become the country’s largest by far. Wilders held his hands in front of his face. When he removed them again, it was still true. “Fantastic!”, he shouted to cheering fellow party members. When the votes were counted, the victory was even clearer. The Freedom Party gets 37 seats in the Tweede Kamer, the “lower house” of the Dutch National Assembly. It is a historic election result for a man who for two decades has left a marked mark on Dutch politics, but only exceptionally from a formal position of power. SHOCKED: At the red-green election vigil, the atmosphere was characterized by disbelief. Photo: Reuters In recent years, Wilders has in practice been excluded from any form of government cooperation. Partly because of his hard-hitting positions on banning the Koran or withdrawing the Netherlands from the EU. Partly because he was considered a disloyal and uncooperative partner when his party operated as a support party. Prime Minister Mark Rutte formulated it quite clearly before the 2017 election, when he assessed the chances of a new collaboration: “Zero percent, Geert. ZERO percent. The. Want. Not. Happen.” High stakes in the election campaign This year, things already looked different in the election campaign. Rutte’s successor, Dilan Yesilgöz from the liberal conservative party VVD, opened up to a collaboration with Wilders, at a time when he was far down in the opinion polls. For Yesilgöz, it was important to signal that she took the Wilders voters’ concerns seriously. She herself ran an election campaign heavily marked by a stricter immigration policy. THANKS FOR THE EFFORT: Many had predicted that Dilan Yesilgöz would be the winner of the election. She finished in third place. Photo: AFP The aim was to convince voters that they could just as easily vote for her if they were worried about a growing number of foreigners on Dutch soil. The result may have been that voters preferred to vote for Wilders, now that it looked like a vote for him could actually result in government power. At VVD’s election vigil yesterday, the mood was one of disbelief. “We said we could work with Wilders. But we never imagined that he would be the biggest”, as an election vigil participant told news. Coalition chaos Now the difficult government negotiations begin. Although it is common for the largest party to get the post of prime minister, there is no automaticity in this. While Dilan Yesilgöz has opened up for cooperation, she has refused to join a government with Wilders as prime minister. In any case, he needs the support of several parties to get a majority in the chamber, which has 150 seats. In addition to the VVD, Wilders hopes to bring in the relatively new peasant rebellion party BBB. The center/right-oriented newcomer party New Social Contract has said in advance that they will not cooperate with Wilders. The reason is that he pursues a policy that goes against the constitution, when in practice he wants to ban the practice of a religion. THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY: Frans Timmermans and Geert Wilders on their way to the last party leader debate on Tuesday evening. Photo: Simen Ekern The election result may make it more difficult to say no to Wilders. Perhaps the promise he repeated to news the night before the election also helps: He has promised to stop talking about Islam, the Koran and mosques for a while, if it can ease the cooperative climate. What that promise means in practice, no one knows. It is also uncertain what possible government partners think about a referendum on Dutch EU membership or a halt in arms deliveries to Ukraine. One-man party The advantage Wilders has is that, in practice, he leads a one-man party, where he is the only member. When his fellow parliamentarians are asked what they think about an issue, the answer often begins with a reference to what Wilders has said. In practice, he can choose for himself which issues he will stick to and which he can disregard in a negotiation. UNCLEAR FUTURE: The disappointed red-green prime ministerial candidate yesterday urged his supporters to fight for democracy and the rule of law. Photo: Reuters There are theoretical possibilities for what we could call a centre/right/green/left coalition without Wilders. But as the name suggests, it’s no easy team to assemble. European consequences While Dutch politicians are now sitting down to resolve the issues, parties elsewhere in Europe are closely following what has happened. The congratulatory messages came lightning fast from many of those who for years have been supporters of the continent’s most prominent opponents of Islam. From France, Marine Le Pen believes it is a victory for “the defense of national identities”. Italy’s Matteo Salvini wholeheartedly agreed. The same applied to the far-right party Vox in Spain, which itself had to see itself defeated in the election this summer. Hungary’s Viktor Orban believed a Wind of Change is blowing over Europe. The hope is that Wilder’s success will give traction to similar forces in other countries. In the run-up to the European Parliament elections in the spring, it will be extremely interesting to follow, because it could have major consequences for the EU’s common line on major issues such as the green shift, refugee and immigration policy or support for Ukraine. OLD FRIENDS: Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen in 2017 Photo: AP The wind can also lie, of course. An unstoppable right-wing populist wave has been predicted several times before, not least after Donald Trump’s election victory. At the time, both Wilders and Le Pen promised that they would quickly come to power. This was not the case then. This year, the attention surrounding Wilders’ election campaign was far less intense than previously. It was possible to argue that he had become stuck in his one-track opposition to Islam, that he was no longer a real political force to be reckoned with. Only when the opinion polls changed abruptly in the last week was it possible to see that something was brewing. A large number of Dutch voters state that they make up their minds at the last minute before the election. It makes reality difficult for pollsters, and opens up for surprises. This year it was bigger than in many, many years. We have to wait for weeks, perhaps several months to see the concrete consequences of Geert Wilders’ victory in terms of how the Netherlands is to be governed. The work to analyze how Dutch voters have thought, and how the politicians in the country have reacted to the challenge from Wilders, is already underway.
ttn-69
Geert Wilders won a crushing victory in the Netherlands – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
