Cold war, hot war and global warming. Much will be about temperatures when the world’s most powerful leaders – minus Vladimir Putin – start a triathlon of meetings in Asia. Monday’s meeting between China’s leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden will get the most attention. It happens the evening before the G20 meeting in Bali, Indonesia. The G20 is a forum for the world’s 20 largest economies. Before the G20, Biden is going to the Asean meeting in Cambodia. Asean is a kind of European Union for the countries of Southeast Asia. After the G20, Xi travels to the Apec meeting in Bangkok. Apec is an organization for cooperation between countries in Asia and around the Pacific Ocean. In Bangkok, Vice President Kamala Harris is running for the United States. Diplomacy taken on the heels The meeting between Xi and Biden in Bali will be less prepared and more open than usual. It was confirmed just days before both were to set course for Southeast Asia. Both have very recently put two defining political events behind them. Xi has secured at least a third term as China’s supreme leader and has installed a top leadership in the country made up entirely of his own men. Biden avoided a shellacking in the by-elections and Donald Trump seems less well placed to return as US president than previously thought. This probably means that both Xi and Biden consider it so that much of world politics in the coming years will be about the two of them. They are likely to visit these points before the G20 starts: Ukraine war Taiwan North Korea Human rights Trade and economic sanctions Climate and global warming It is the first time they will meet face to face as presidents. Due to the pandemic, previous conversations have been on video. On November 15 last year, Xi and Biden had one of their meetings on video. Photo: JONATHAN ERNST / Reuters Beijing and Washington’s diplomats have had little time to exchange scripts or negotiate in advance. It increases the chances of a rather fruitless meeting, but it also opens the door for surprises and improvisation. To the extent that a 69-year-old Chinese leader and a 79-year-old American president improvise. Just cool or “new cold war”? Maybe it’s not that much that is needed? Today, the fronts are harder and the tone colder than 10–12 years ago. In October, the US tightened its sanctions policy. It makes it almost impossible for China to import the smallest and most advanced computer chips, which the country is not currently self-sufficient in. These are data chips that Chinese technology companies need to compete and to take new steps militarily. China repeats time and time again that the US imposes its values on others and tries to maintain its dominance in the world under the guise of being a democracy. Climate was an area where China and the US spoke well after Biden won the presidential election two years ago. But when Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan on an Airforce One flight in August, Beijing shelved planned climate dialogue meetings with the United States. A positive signal just before the Bali meeting is that the two countries’ climate envoys spoke again during the COP27 climate summit, which is now taking place in Egypt. Biden’s goal before the meeting with Xi is relatively modest: to create a space for dialogue with a China they have defined as their biggest geopolitical challenger and strategic rival. Xi may also have no greater ambitions than not to close cooperation with the United States in areas where they ultimately have common interests. A common red line in Ukraine? When Germany’s head of government, Olaf Scholz, as the first G7 leader after the outbreak of the pandemic, visited Beijing a little over a week ago, Ukraine was the topic. Both Xi and Scholz said the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is unacceptable. China has not wanted to condemn Russia’s invasion, but this red line from Beijing limits Putin’s room to threaten nuclear weapons, also rhetorically. It is something Emmanuel Macron can build on when the French president will also have his own talks with Xi on the sidelines of the G20. Among ordinary Chinese, there is a real fear that the war in Ukraine could develop into a nuclear war. A man and woman in Balinese clothing pass a G20 sign in Bali. The theme of the G20 meeting is rebuilding the world economy after the pandemic. Photo: Firdia Lisnawati / AP The unwilling world politician A political joker is the host of the G20 meeting. Indonesian President Joko Widodo had long hoped to bring the world’s three most powerful individual leaders to Bali. Not only did he personally travel to Moscow and Beijing to invite Putin and Xi, but he also took the train from Poland to Kyiv, through war-torn Ukraine, to invite Volodymyr Zelenskyj. Not the most typical trip for an Indonesian president. Now the G20 in Bali is probably not the place where a peace in Ukraine can be negotiated. Putin sends his loyal foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, to the tropical peninsula. Instead, Widodo is now trying to achieve something else which, seen from Indonesia, is perhaps more important: Bringing to light how the war affects third countries that do not feel the same closeness to the war as they do in Europe. It is about grain and food security. It is about rising prices that hit the world’s poor harder than anyone else. In addition, he will use the last days of the G20 chairmanship to highlight two issues that end up in the shadow of war and the power struggle between the US and China: The civil war in Myanmar, which has increased in intensity after the coup in 2021. Debt relief for poor countries. The West and the World Bank are no longer the only creditors. China and India are now also important lenders with unpaid debts in countries that are struggling. From the days of the Cold War, Indonesia has a history as part of the “Movement of Non-Aligned Countries”. The movement’s first meeting was held in Bandung in 1955. For eight years, “Jokowi” – as he is called at home – has ruled Indonesia, without being particularly noticed on the world stage. He leads the world’s most populous Muslim country. He leads a country with high economic growth. Despite this, he has not expressed any major international ambitions. A helping hand? US President Joe Biden, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and Indonesian President Joko Widodo on stage during the Asean meeting in Cambodia. Photo: CINDY LIU / Reuters When he recently gave an interview to the Financial Times, he posed in a simple white shirt, black trousers and trainers made in Indonesia. When he was younger, Widodo ran a furniture workshop in a small town. Many have noticed his efforts ahead of the upcoming G20 meeting. A slightly above-average successful meeting in a world that does not expect anything big can lift “Jokowi” onto the global stage. If it is ever so reluctant. Some may also welcome a stronger voice from the “Movement of Non-Aligned Nations”, in a world where both new and old powerful states are not on speaking terms.
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G20 in Bali: Biden and Xi meet for the first time – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
