FRP’s convincing growth – Speech

Sylvi Listhaug’s FRP on the rise has caught up with Støres Ap, and is on its way past Erna Solberg’s Høyre. There are then some mutterings about the post of prime minister. The last time the FRP ended the 20s, in 2011 and the beginning of the 2000s, the FRP was primarily a parade branch in eternal opposition existence. In the time before, during, and not least after participation in the Solberg government, the party has not been close to the 20s. Before now. FRP has grown step by step over time. Ten percentage points increase in support so far this year. A few small decimals behind the bourgeois big brother Høyre, which gets its worst poll since December 2021. Høyre’s decline is the biggest change from last month, but none of the parties moves beyond the margins of error. National party barometer October 2024 What would you vote for if there was a parliamentary election now? Compared to the September poll.Party Support Change22.7%H−2,822.0%FRP+2,519.3%AP−0.99.0%SV+0.66.2%R+1.26.0%V+1.24, 9%SP−0.23.5%MDG−0.52.4%KRF−0.14.1%Other−0.8Click on the party circle to see the full party name. Based on 992 interviews conducted in the period 15.10.24–19.10.24. Margins of error from 1.1–3.3 pp. Source: Norstat A growing FRP will be able to afford to take more chances while self-confidence grows. FRP will distance itself more clearly from, and be an alternative to, the Conservative Party. Throughout this year, the FRP has experienced that much of the social debate has been moved to its own half of the track. In the past, the FRP was known for “pulling the immigration card” when the polls dropped a little. Now the party sees that tax policy, climate criticism, the crime debate, and general criticism of all the other parties help lift the FRP. Culture and identity debate, energy and power also appeal. Especially among younger voters and male voters, the FRP does well. Going down the Right’s throat has borne fruit. Showing itself as a political alternative also to its main collaboration partner and only path to power has been a success. Therefore, we want to see more of it. And how long will the Conservative Party and Solberg manage to appear unconcerned by it? So far, the answer is that anything that helps to strengthen the bourgeois side and prevent Labor growth is good. At the same time, the Right undeniably feels the pressure. Being pressured also from a party to the right creates an interesting political landscape for the Right, which is more used to being a contrast to the left. In sum, this means that the FRP’s growth appears to be healthier and potentially more lasting than the Center Party’s abrupt growth from summer 2020 to summer 2021. Who will get the most voters? FRP’s Sylvi Listhaug is constantly trailing Høyre’s Erna Solberg in the opinion polls. Photo: William Jobling / n647304 Two new moves The FRP is attracting voters from the Labor Party, from the SP and from the Conservative Party in large numbers. Although this measurement does not contain large, significant changes from last month, there are two trends that are making themselves felt for the first time. Both say something about the strength of Frp’s growth and why it is increasing. FRP gets more voters from the Conservative Party than the Conservative Party gets from Ap. This means that the Conservative Party is weakened in the internal battle for voters between the three major parties. The sum of Ap and Høyre is lower than in a very long time, and lower than when Sp had a record 22 percent in the early run-up to the 2021 election campaign. The FRP is particularly increasing its recruitment of voters who voted for Ap and Høyre last time. If you see the FRP as an opposition to “røkla”, it is clear that the pressure on the two parties, which are often called governing parties, is significant. In that case, it is part of an international trend. When the FRP is able to attract voters who last voted for the Center Party’s oppositional, pointed, protest election campaign against centralisation, but at the same time attracts voters from the two major parties on opposite sides of politics, it shows a great breadth in who now flocks to Listhaug’s Frp. FRP gets 49,000 voters from Ap, the same number from Sp, but as many as 68,000 from Høyre. Prime Minister Sylvi Listhaug will sound at least as unfamiliar in 2025 as Prime Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum sounded in 2021. Perhaps Listhaug has seen that Vedum’s hubris and launch of his candidacy for prime minister did not hold up to the mark, so to speak. At the same time, something will undeniably happen to the dynamics and the debate when it is relevant to ask whether it is not natural that the largest party on the bourgeois side has the prime minister. The moment the FRP makes up a larger share of the government base than when it was the last time it was a bourgeois majority, the party will exchange the election results for positions or political influence. The other bourgeois parties and their voters have to deal with that. Representatives in the Storting Distribution of seats in the Storting if the October poll was an election. Compared to today’s Storting.HøyreH42+6FremskrittspartietFRP40+19ArbeiderpartietAP36−12Socialist Left PartySV17+4RødtR11+3VenstreV11+3SenterpartietSP9−19Environmental Party The Green MDG2−1Christian People’s PartyKRF1−2AndreANDRE00−1992 interviews conducted in the period 15.10.24–19.10.24. Margins of error from 1.1–3.3 pp. Source: Norstat Frp’s three dangers No one wants to be in shape too soon. Record polling 11 months before an election can of course also be an example of that. There are three trends in particular that the FRPs should be aware of: A party in growth makes it difficult to deal with internal criticism and internal opposition. This can mean that discussions are not held or that constructive objections never come to the table. In Listhaug’s Frp, much is about her and a close, inner circle. The FRP could have needed a wider team and more profiles. FRP needs more heavyweights to carry an election campaign and government participation. If that doesn’t happen, the entire rise will now be vulnerable. The FRP gets a particularly large number of voters from the group of voters who did not vote last time. 121,000 voters who were either too young or too unsure or for other reasons did not turn up at a polling station in 2021. Based on experience, not that many of them will turn up at an actual election now either, even if they answer this. This particularly applies to young men who largely support the FRP on social media at the moment. Whether this actually translates into real votes in a ballot box remains to be seen. Much of Frp’s measurement growth is therefore potentially quite fragile. Should the FRP be in the best position also at the start of the election year, they will get a lot of hard work in the election campaign. It will both suit them well and be a significant opportunity for growth, but it can also cause the decline to come faster, as we saw with Sp four years ago. People should get better advice, said Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre when he spoke to Ap’s national board in April. The same was an important message when the government’s proposal for the state budget was presented this October. Photo: NTB Støre’s strategy does not convince Today it is 199 days since Støre took the podium at the Labor Party’s national board and said that the party needed a new strategy to win the election. On 8 April he started the long election campaign. The new rhetoric and polished message had to be anchored in the party and convince the voters. In March, Ap had a startlingly low monthly average of 18.2 per cent. On 9 April, news and Aftenposten presented a survey with Ap at 17.1 per cent. Sure, Frp was bigger than Ap which was relegated to third place among the parties. This month, the Frp is again bigger than the Labor Party. Ap is not now over 20 per cent either. The message of being tougher on crime, faithful to the labor line, and clear on the right, should then have taken hold. Faith in the economic turning point as well. How long can Ap manage to have ice in his stomach? How long do they have patience with Støre and a belief that this can turn into concrete, measurable growth for the party? The voters are not convinced by Støre’s new strategy. Why should it be Ap? If the clock is ticking too fast towards an election year, it could become the most central question heading into the national assembly spring. Should that happen, contrary to conjecture, it will be more sensational that questions can be raised about who is Aps’ candidate for prime minister than who it is on the bourgeois side. Published 23.10.2024, at 05.28 Updated 23.10.2024, at 14.26



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