It seems an infinite time ago that Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov visited Norway’s newly elected Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre with a smile. The two know each other well from the past, and it seemed so on that October day in 2021. As foreign minister, Støre had succeeded in promoting dialogue with Russia in his Nordic initiative and went to the election on improving relations with Russia. It was one of the few clear foreign policy markings. The charm offensive was short-lived, because not many months later Støre was on news and warned against a major war in Europe. There was a danger of a full invasion of another of Russia’s neighboring countries, Ukraine. A bit of both When it arrived on 24 February last year, the whole of Europe’s relationship with Russia changed. Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership, Germany began to build up its defense and the Eastern European countries, which had constantly warned against Russia, could say “what did we say” What should Norway do? It was a bit of both. Our country is in a special position in Europe. We share a border with Russia in the north and a responsibility for managing large fisheries resources. Russia also has a presence on Svalbard. SVALBARD: Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in Svalbard in March 2023. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB At the same time, we are one of the original NATO members and a close ally of the USA. Norway supported Ukraine with weapons and introduced sanctions against Russia. The decision was taken in consultation with European allies and often after the EU or the US had decided. Differentiates us from Europe At the same time, we maintained a kind of cooperation in the north. Border crossings became fewer, political contact disappeared and this is felt in the border areas, especially in Kirkenes. There, too, is a before and after of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. What separates us from the rest of Europe is that it is still possible for Russian fishing boats to dock in Norway. It does not allow countries in the EU or in the UK. So we tried to strike a kind of balance, even though President Vladimir Putin recently said in Moscow that the relationship is at a minimum. Hidden conflict The expulsion of the 15 Russian diplomats changes all this. It is a dramatic decision by the Norwegian authorities and highlights the hidden part of the conflict that has been fought on Norwegian soil. It will be followed up from the Russian authorities with a response that probably almost drains the Norwegian embassy of diplomats. The Norwegian consulate in Murmansk has already been closed. It will be very difficult to have normal diplomatic contact after this. UKRAINE: A woman walks through an area of bombed-out buildings in Mariupol, Ukraine, in February 2023. Photo: ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / Reuters Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt referred to the security political situation when she justified the expulsion, without going into details. We do not yet know who the 15 people are, but we must assume that the Norwegian authorities have known about this and followed them over time. It may be about people connected to the military intelligence (GRU), the security service (FSB) or foreign intelligence (SVR), but who have operated under the guise of being ordinary diplomats. Until now it has been tolerated, but not anymore. Prolonged ice front It sharpens the conflict with Russia in a way that we do not yet have a full overview of. It is also a clear signal from the Norwegian authorities to Moscow that they do not always wait for other countries before making major decisions. What now remains is the question of whether Russian fishing boats will still be allowed to call at Norwegian ports. There has been speculation as to whether they are also used for gathering illegal intelligence, and may even have cut cables linking Svalbard to the Norwegian mainland. LAVROV AND PUTIN: President Vladimir Putin has described Russia’s relationship with Norway and other countries in Europe as at a minimum. Behind: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AP With as little contact as there may be after today’s expulsion, it will also be more difficult to resolve other conflicts or tensions that arise in relations with Russia, especially in the northern regions. The government has broad political support for today’s decision, and it is an expression of the tense situation on the entire European continent. There is no frost in sight either. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating and Putin seems to be sitting safely in the Kremlin. We have to assume that relations with Russia will remain frosty for a long time to come.
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From cold to freezing – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
