Generally, foreigners buy more shares than they sell, and over several years foreigners have owned an increasingly large proportion of the shares on the Oslo Stock Exchange. But in the last three quarters, foreign owners have sold shares for 35 billion more than they bought, shows the net sales statistics of listed shares to Statistics Norway up to 1 April. – The increase in recent years has stopped, and there has been some sales, says investment director Robert Næss at Nordea. Points to tax The Statistics Norway overview goes back to 2012. Never before has Statistics Norway registered such a large net sale of Norwegian shares among foreigners, nor has a net sale been recorded three quarters in a row. But just before the big sale, foreigners had net bought shares worth 90 billion in the second quarter, according to Statistics Norway. Therefore, Næss is a little unsure of how the change in trend should be understood. In parallel, the debate about political risk and the weak Norwegian krone exchange rate is raging. Several in the financial community, such as investor Øystein Stray Spetalen and Arctic Securities partner Jon Gunnar Pedersen, told news in March that foreigners became skeptical about investing in Norway after the Støre government’s tax changes last autumn. The introduction of a special tax for farming and wind power was announced at the end of September last year, i.e. on the eve of the third quarter. The financial experts believe that the Norwegian krone is weak because money is withdrawn from the country, and last week Spetalen called the krone a “rotten pill” in DN. Næss believes that the sell-off since the third quarter may indicate that foreigners have changed their perception of owning shares in Norway, but is initially skeptical of the explanation. – It is not inconceivable that this is why. But you can’t say with certainty that this is the case, since there was such strong buying ahead of time, says Næss. Investment director Robert Næss believes the figures should have shown a larger sell-off if the hypothesis of political risk was correct. Photo: Håkon Mosvold Larsen / NTB Although foreigners sell shares, foreigners’ share of ownership on Oslo Børs has remained stable at over 40 per cent. Næss explains the paradox that foreigners have been more successful with their investments than Norwegian owners. – The simple and logical explanation is that they have achieved a slightly higher return than Norwegians, he says. Conservative leaders thought foreigners overreacted. Pedersen, who is also a member of the central board of the Conservative Party, is also unsure how the figures should be interpreted, but is troubled by the development. In his daily work as a partner in Arctic Securities, he works to raise money for Nordic projects. – We talk to foreign investors almost every day. For us it is a very real experience, he says, and continues: Jon Gunnar Pedersen is a member of the central board of the Norwegian Conservative Party in addition to his job as a partner in Arctic Securities. Photo: Eirik Pessl-Kleiven / news – The first experience was in October-November last year. After the government came up with the tax changes, we heard from the brokerage table that the foreigners are now upset. Then I thought they were exaggerating. But then we ourselves were in a meeting with foreign investors, and then I understood that London investors in particular were genuinely upset and thought they had wasted their time on Norway, he says. Pedersen is concerned that foreign investors must spend as much time familiarizing themselves with politics in “small” Norway as in populous countries such as Great Britain and Germany. He believes foreigners will not bother to spend time in Norway if the government messes up the predictability of the tax system. – Then they choose to invest elsewhere, he says. Sp-topp believes the rumors are the problem The changes in the tax burden in Norway have also created headlines abroad, because hundreds of Norwegian capital owners have flagged. In the Center Party, Storting representative Geir Pollestad is also concerned about Norway’s reputation. But he believes the Conservative Party and people like Spetalen must bear responsibility for the “flood of rumours” about unpredictability in the tax system. – It is used in a political game, and in a political rhetoric, he says to news. – There are rapid upheavals, what has happened on taxes and in the state budget this autumn was dramatic, but it was also because we had a wall with challenges related to Ukraine and energy prices, he says and points to the expenses. Geir Pollestad is a parliamentary representative and spokesperson for fiscal policy in the Center Party, and believes that the Conservative Party is helping to give Norway a bad reputation as a country to invest in. Photo: Ole Andreas Bø / news Pollestad believes that Norway is not unique and that all parties must get used to that peaceful and more predictable times are over. – It is a major shift, and it will go beyond perceived political stability, because there are constant adjustments to the course to fit a more changing reality, he explains. – If a narrative about political risk is established in the financial environment, without it actually being so in your view, won’t the narrative itself be a problem for Norway? – Yes, it is. There is a great responsibility that lies with those who create this type of narrative. Everything gets wrapped up in the label political risk. Ordinary politics can bring about changes, but changes are necessary. Things are happening faster now than the peace period behind us. I think greater instability in what moves around us is important. Pollestad is also concerned that the business world has enjoyed the fact that the politicians can throw themselves around: – Which country was among those that stood up the most for the business world during the pandemic? Yes, it was Norway. We ended up in a situation where the funeral home received corona support in a pandemic. When earnings are good, we are in a system where people have to pay, he says. – The single most important step we can take to ensure stability for foreign investors is to stick to the corporate tax rate of 22 per cent, he emphasises. – Evidence of a lack of understanding Pedersen is provoked by hearing Pollestad point to the war and inflation as the reason why the government had to cough up billions from new taxes. – Surely Norway doesn’t have much more war than the countries around us? It is not the case that the war that hit Europe hit Norway particularly harder than other countries. On the contrary, the war has brought record high revenues for the state, says Pedersen. – Writing off concerns such as ours pick up from foreign investors is helping to create unrest. It shows a lack of understanding of how people have to think out there. It is not the right that has caused foreign investors to be net sellers of securities for three quarters in a row, he says, and refers to the Statistics Norway figures.
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