Hope on the Horizon: Rain Forecast for Spain
This story begins with a hint of hope. In recent days, the main meteorological models began to show consensus: the interaction of a deep trough and a subtropical low would generate a fairly active front .
In other words, for the first time in a long time, real rain might finally reach Spain. No Danas, no summer storms: just genuine precipitation.
The problem? That is, actually, that there were only a handful of deterministic exits. Considering that autumn has always been (and will be increasingly) infernally difficult to model, this was very little.
However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that rain won’t come. Rain is on the way, but the uncertainties are substantial. Yet, as the meteorological cards are dealt, it all begins to take shape.
<img alt="In the coming days, Spain will be in the middle of a corridor of Atlantic storms. It's good news, but not for everyone" width="375" height="142" src="https://i.blogs.es/c26757/captura-de-pantalla-2024-01-15-a-las-11.01.05-2-/375_142.jpeg"/>But what is going to happen? According to AEMET, from Monday to Wednesday, rain will be concentrated in the northwest of the peninsula. However, only in Galicia will it be persistent, leading to significant accumulations. By Thursday, the situation will become more equitable , with rains expected across a broader area, impacting parts of the northwest, the center of the peninsula , and the Pyrenees . Strong winds are also likely.
However, genuine rain (as “real” as it can be in this context) in the center will need to wait until Friday.
Beyond Friday, things will become more diffuse; some rain is anticipated in the interior, the south, and the Balearic Islands . A small drop in temperatures is also probable, followed by another uptick, which will leave conditions better than before, yet still with temperatures above normal.
And then? In reality, it seems that these meteorological skirmishes will be minimal. Given this situation, many experts are already placing their hopes in December.
That’s troubling. It’s true that the country’s reservoirs are in much better shape than last year, and compared to the average of the past decade. However, this “water cushion” will not last indefinitely; we often overlook the fact that autumn is a crucial season for water reserves . “In general terms, autumn usually registers higher accumulations than winter in our country as a whole,” said Yurima Celdrán.
If we miss this opportunity, confronting the next drought may be exceedingly challenging. Waiting until December for a “miracle” is hardly an optimistic scenario.
Image | ECMWF
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