The Republicans’ favorite for the post of leader, Kevin McCarthy, has lost three rounds of voting by a narrow margin. Despite opposition from his most conservative party colleagues, he has vowed not to budge. Tonight at 18:00 Norwegian time, the members gather for another attempt. We have asked two US experts: Sofie Høgestøl and Hilde Eliassen Restad, about the drama that is still unfolding. Drama in the vote to become the new leader in Congress – the favorite in trouble How important is this leadership position? The leader of the House of Representatives in Congress, or “Speaker of the House” as it is called in the United States, is the third most important political position after the president and vice president. If both the president and the vice-president should die, resign or be deposed, it is the leader of the House of Representatives who takes over the leadership of the country. The first thing the new representatives must do after an election is to choose a new leader who will swear in the others. The party with the majority also gets all the committee chair positions, which in turn gives them the power to decide the agenda. In the mid-term elections in November, the Republicans gained a majority in the House of Representatives and now take over power there, while the Democrats managed to retain the majority in the Senate. Hilde Eliassen Restad is current with the book “The American Paradox” about American politics. Photo: Martin Holvik / news Hilde Eliassen Restad is an expert on the United States and an associate professor at Bjørknes University College. – This is very important, because before they get a leader elected, nothing gets done. They are not allowed to swear in new representatives, and they do not get started on the work being done. – The leader has control over committee composition and which legislative proposals are to be reviewed and possibly voted on. The person is also the leader of the party with the majority. – So there are two important roles, says Eliassen Restad. Democrat Hakeem Jeffries received applause from party colleagues during the votes for a new leader of the House of Representatives. Photo: Alex Brandon / AP How unusual was what happened yesterday? The House of Representatives has elected a leader 127 times since 1789. Only 14 times previously have multiple votes been necessary. To be elected leader, a leader candidate needs the support of more than half of the 435 representatives. That means support from at least 218. With the Democrats, leader candidate Hakeem Jeffries received 212 votes – i.e. support from all his party colleagues – in all three voting rounds that were held. Kevin McCarthy, who was the Republican minority leader until the New Year, received 203 and 202 votes respectively in the first two rounds. So not many enough. Sofie Høgestøl is associate professor at the University of Oslo. – In the last 100 years, the party that has gained a majority has managed to sit down and find one candidate. So for the last 100 years this has only been a ceremonial thing, explains Sofie Høgestøl, who is associate professor of jurisprudence at the University of Oslo. Usually, the candidate from the party with the majority will have secured all the votes they need in advance, according to Hilde Eliassen Restad. – The Democrats’ now-departed leader Nancy Pelosi was famous for never putting up a vote on something she didn’t know she had enough votes to win, no matter what it was about. – McCarthy’s challenge is that since the mid-term elections in 2010, there has been an increasing proportion of very extreme Republicans who have been elected to Congress. They kind of hold the cards now, because the majority of the Republicans is so small that many of these radical Republicans get veto power. – So Kevin McCarthy has to get your vote to win. But it is not certain that they negotiate in good faith, says Eliassen Restad. Outgoing Speaker of the House of Representatives, Democrat Nancy Pelosi showed off the club she has given up. Photo: EVELYN HOCKSTEIN / Reuters What is happening in the Republican Party? The dispute between the moderate and radical Republicans has been going on since Barack Obama’s time in office, says Hilde Eliassen Restad. The group calls itself the Freedom Caucus, or “Freedom Meeting”, and several were elected as members of the House of Representatives in 2010. They expressed strong dissatisfaction with the Republican leadership, and did not want the Republicans in Congress to cooperate with the then Democratic administration. That time it ended with the leader of the House of Representatives, John Boehner, having to resign. His successor, Paul Ryan, chose to leave politics after facing the same problems. – There is a civil war within the Republican Party, says Eliassen Restad. Lauren Boebert is one of the Republicans who will not vote for Kevin McCarthy. Photo: KEVIN DIETSCH / AFP – It is certainly not going to calm down. I also said it before the midterm elections, that it is only good for the Biden administration and the Democrats if the Republicans win the House of Representatives, because they will not be able to manage it in any good way. Then Biden and the Democrats can point to them and say: “Look at the chaos! Vote for us in 2024.” Whether the radical republicans want to vote for an alternative candidate or just humble McCarthy, Eliassen Restad is unsure. She believes their goal is not for McCarthy to change his policy, but rather public humiliation. – McCarthy has given these radical Republicans everything they want. Therefore, it is natural to assume that they are not really that concerned with these negotiations. It is more, perhaps, about humiliating the Republican leadership. – If McCarthy steps aside, then of course someone else can make it happen. Then there will be less prestige for the radical Republicans. Republican Kevin McCarthy speaks with his party colleague Jim Jordan during the vote for a new leader of the House of Representatives. Jordan was put up as an opposing candidate, but voted for McCarthy himself. Photo: ANNA MONEYMAKER / AFP What is at stake for Congress and the United States? – The majority in Congress may be at stake. In a way, this is exciting news for the Democrats. If they manage to get over four or five of the Republicans on their side, they can get a majority on issues. On the other hand, President Joe Biden must govern with these people. He is dependent on there being a majority in Congress which can, among other things, adopt a budget. It is important for the country. – So even though the Biden administration laughed a little yesterday, this is also bloody serious. Because it boils down to whether the US has a functioning government in the next two years, explains lawyer Sofie Høgestøl. In her own party, McCarthy can only afford to lose four supporters, she says further. – He spent Christmas promising a lot to the separatists. He promised to accommodate them on rule changes, he made political concessions, he made the promises in the hope that they would support him. – It has not worked. The question now is does he have anything more to give when he has given almost everything? says Sofie Høgestøl. Several of McCarthy’s opponents belong to the Trump-loyal wing of the Republican Party. A few hours before the fourth round of voting was to start, Donald Trump nevertheless urged the Republican representatives to get behind him and vote for McCarthy. Republican representative Tom Emmer closed the door to the press after the third round of voting. The question is whether the party group has negotiated a winning formula before the fourth voting round. Photo: Alex Brandon / AP What will happen in the House of Representatives? In short, no one knows for sure what will happen next. The House of Representatives has no tools to resolve this situation other than holding new votes until someone succeeds, according to the two experts. A new round of voting starts this afternoon. The big question is whether the Republicans have rallied during the “break”. – What happened yesterday was a highly political drama. But there was also a sense that no one is in control. Here, the Republican leaders have completely lost control. What happens now, no one knows. The sky above the Congress building before the members of the House of Representatives voted for the third time. Photo: DREW ANGERER / AFP – I think the big question is: has Kevin McCarthy managed to get a custodian on his party? Has he managed to get them in line, or has he lost control completely so that something completely different could happen today, says Sofie Høgestøl. Hilde Eliassen Restad believes that the way forward largely depends on Kevin McCarthy’s pride and personal ambition. – I would think that McCarthy’s strategy is to just run these polls over and over again until someone gives up and he gets a majority. If there is another vote today and he doesn’t win it either, you can wonder how many times he wants to look like a loser, says Eliassen Restad.
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Five questions and answers about the leadership drama in Congress – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
