Photo: Lars Nehru Sand / news Tromsøya gets bigger and bigger as the Norwegian plane approaches the landing lights. The sky is getting redder and redder. The mountains stand firm there. For the Ap leader, Tromsø is only an exception, the wind is blue and Ap has too many voters who are in doubt. Støre is in Tromsø, among other things, to greet nursing home residents, listen to re-municipalized cleaners about everyday work and appeal to high school students to stay in the north. He will brag about the school food and hand out cultural resources and demonstrate that political decisions mean something to the everyday life of all of us. The Prime Minister bragged about the school breakfast. Støre met students at Ishavsbyen high school in Tromsø with APS county council leader Kristina Torbergsen. Photo: Lars Nehru Sand / news Ap knows who they have to lure down from the fence. Women in the public sector, those who are employed in welfare professions, not just relatives or users. Those who want a strong welfare state, because they may both need it and are part of it themselves. In this important voter group too, Ap must work extra hard for votes now. Tromsø is an exception to the rule that Ap struggles with re-election in the important cities. In 2015 Ap made a good choice and won many cities. In 2019, support decreased. The crisis was averted by the fact that the party nevertheless retained many mayoral chains and the management of important large cities. How high is the list? 2019 was proof that the national support is not everything. Ap’s self-image was saved by other parameters. Now the question is what is good enough in 2023? Is it to … Keep as many as possible of the 153 mayors? Demanding. Still be the country’s largest party in elections, as in all local and parliamentary elections since 1924? Very demanding. Do not go back from the previous municipal election’s 24.8 percent support? Seems almost impossible. Get over 20.0 percent? Realistic. Hold on to power in Oslo, Trondheim and Tromsø, maybe also Bergen? Possible, but not certain. Still rule the capital? Open. Støre at a stand in Storgata in Tromsø with local Labor politicians. Photo: Lars Nehru Sand / news The answers depend somewhat on who in Ap you ask. Keeping all mayoral chains and/or moving forward from 2019 seems unlikely. The degree of power loss, not a percentage decline, has nevertheless not sunk completely into the party organisation. It hits harder when you stand with facit in hand without a chain around your neck. The number of mayors lost will quickly also define how much of the grassroots will be critical to strategy, the government project, the leadership and the way forward. If you take the surveys as a basis, it is very likely that the Conservative Party will become the largest party. Many in Ap also take it for granted. Others in the party believe that this has not been taken into account and that the expectation to be the greatest is still present. Moreover, it is one thing that it is like this nationally, it is quite another to see it in one’s own backyard in a number of municipalities beyond election night and night. Ap can hold on to power in Oslo, Trondheim and Tromsø. Maybe also Bergen. It is not only linked to Ap’s result alone. It will probably not be clarified until long after election night. It says few mandates and small voting margins in the most important big cities in the run-up to the election campaign. Ap currently governs all these cities: Oslo: Open whether there will be a shift or not. Very even measurements, two mandates or fewer that make the difference. Support parties can switch sides after election night. Bergen: Both main blocs can stand without a majority on election night. Can become intense negotiations between parties who initially do not want to cooperate. Trondheim: Rødgrøn victory is within reach, but Ap risks losing Sp on the red side, if Rødt has to secure a red-green majority. Stavanger: Ap is strengthening, but the coalition is demanding. Was almost written off, but can be even. Tromsø: Evener than at the start of the election campaign, but a red-green victory is most likely. Symbolically, it is important for Ap to retain power in Oslo. Symbolically, Norway is a changed political landscape, if Ap is no longer the country’s largest party. Støre is fighting a fierce battle with his back against the wall in the hours leading up to election day. It’s all about convincing 160,000 Ap voters from 2019 who are still on the fence. (The text continues below the graphic) National municipal poll September What will the voters vote for in the municipal elections? Compared to measurement on 16 August. Party Support Change28.1%H−1.120.3%AP+0.49.1%FRP+0.87.1%SP−2.46.9%SV−2.45.6%MDG +1.44.9%R+0.94.4%V+0.53.3%KRF+0.52.9%INP−0.47.5%Other+2.0Click on the partition circle to see the whole the party name. Based on 998 interviews conducted in the period 28.8.23–31.8.23. Margins of error from 1.2–3.4 pp. Source: Norstat Korthusfreden This spring, AP’s long-term internal friction and conflicts culminated in a sincere, heart-warming applause before Støre’s speech to the national assembly. After the celebratory dinner, an obviously relieved party leader danced on the table, while the problems seemed to have been pushed under the rug. Jonas Gahr Støre visited Mortensne’s nursing home in Tromsø to hear what the effect of remunicipalisation is, particularly for the employees. Photo: Lars Nehru Sand / news Domestic peace was saved, not least because all the local politicians realized that it is their positions that are at stake in the short term. On Tuesday morning, that rationale is less valid. Ap’s collection in bånn is as fragile as a house of cards. In the face of the election results on Monday evening, a lot of aggression may again come to the surface. The party. The strategy. The management. The manager. Slogan. Election campaign matters. The way forward. The government project. Winning cases. There is a lot at stake when Ap has to scrutinize himself. Many will expect that to happen if the election result is not in line with the somewhat undefined expectations. That debate is impossible to predict, some say. There is no room for leadership debate, say others. An election result that the grassroots are disappointed with will undoubtedly increase the pressure on Støre. The debates about strategy and party identity are probably as demanding and fundamental as personal debates. A mobilization election – especially in Oslo The two voters at Mortensrud look beyond the crowds on the artificial grass pitch. – There are more queues with the Conservative Party than the Labor Party, hehe. – It’s because of the chips. There is a mayoral duel, balloons, brochures and a battle for voters on a sunny Saturday morning. Voters could talk politics with all the parties at the Mortensrud Festival at the weekend. Photo: Lars Nehru Sand / news Oslo is a dimension of its own. For Ap, it is extra important to hold on to the capital. The decline already started four years ago, when voters switched to other parties on the left. Now the leak to the Right is increasing. What will probably decide a lot in Oslo is who actually goes and votes. Labor may lose the capital due to low voter turnout, particularly in the immigrant-dense districts on the eastern edge where Labor has traditionally been strong. Four years ago, many here voted for the People’s Action No to more tolls. Now many of these voters go to the Conservative Party, not back to Ap. If these groups do not vote, it will increase the effect of the ballots of the west edge voters who are more inclined to want a change in Oslo. This year’s election campaign has been less mobilizing, but also less polarized, than the toll election campaign four years ago. It will not be surprising if turnout drops from 64.7 percent. Ap may lose out on this demobilization. The campaign rush is about luring former voters off the fence. There are many of them in the country in general and Oslo in particular. All the crises the government is in don’t exactly help. On the western edge, bourgeois parties are strong, Ap may have to pay for the government’s weak management image and the cooperation with the Center Party. In an inner city with many young voters, the Ap voter would rather see more of Rødt, SV and MDG politics and evaluate these parties. On the eastern edge, there are many former FNB voters on the move. The other left-wing parties are also mobilizing. There are many indications that the Conservative Party is on the rise in traditionally strong Labor circles. The Oslo election may say something about a changed city, but also a totally changed Labor Party, less in step with important voter groups for the party. Put at the forefront, those who do not vote in Oslo can decide Ap’s entire self-image, a historic change of the political landscape and the pressure on Jonas Gahr Støre. Photo: Lars Nehru Sand / news
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Fighting to avoid crisis – Speech
