Ukraine has long pressured the United States and European countries to donate new fighter jets to support its army and defend itself against airstrikes. In parallel with the fighting between the ground forces in the south-eastern part of Ukraine, targets throughout the country have been attacked from the air with a variety of long-range missiles, drones and glide bombs. Some of the attacks target critical infrastructure and military targets, while others are terrorist bombings against the civilian population. Ukrainian authorities have argued that they need both modern air defense and combat aircraft to defend both civilian and military targets throughout Ukraine. They have emphasized that modern fighter planes with long-range missiles can threaten Russian fighter planes from a very long distance and thus prevent them from coming within range with their glide bombs. In the same way, Western doctrine emphasizes that the combination of combat aircraft and various types of air defense systems forms the most solid air defense of an area. Last winter, Russian forces carried out systematic airstrikes against the electricity supply throughout Ukraine. They did not achieve the effect Moscow wanted to achieve because the Ukrainians were able to limit the impact of the attacks and repair much of the damaged infrastructure. The war against Ukraine will most likely continue into next year and the Russians will probably launch new attacks against the power supply in the winter. Ukrainian authorities believe they will be better able to defend themselves against this type of attack throughout the country if they receive Western fighter jets with modern missiles. More recently, Ukrainian strategy has been to contact a number of European countries and ask them to form a multinational fighter coalition in order to convince the skeptical US administration. An important breakthrough came when Great Britain and the Netherlands recently joined forces in support of Ukraine’s desire for new combat aircraft, both politically and militarily. Other countries in Europe quickly followed suit and the US changed its position. Ukraine’s strategy has also been to seek immediate access to used combat aircraft rather than ordering new ones from a factory with delivery sometime in the future. Based on a military analysis and assessment of several options, the Ukrainian authorities have put forward the F-16 as their first choice. The US now says it can approve applications from other countries to transfer US-built F-16s to Ukraine. The US has so far been unwilling to contribute its own aircraft, be they used or new. At the time of writing, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has just stated that they are also considering sending F-16s from the US to Ukraine. Whether it will be replaced by F-16s from European countries has not yet been clarified. Donation of Western F-16 combat aircraft to Ukraine will require parallel processes with political decisions and formal approval in the relevant countries, training of pilots and ground personnel, preparation of the aircraft, establishment of a maintenance and logistics system as well as adaptation of infrastructure. How long it takes before the Ukrainians can use the F-16 operationally depends on many factors and is at this stage very difficult to determine with any degree of certainty. What we can establish is that Ukrainians have been able to use other advanced systems in a very short time, for example Patriot air defense. A counter-argument has long been that Western fighter jets to Ukraine could escalate the situation, but much suggests that the fear is exaggerated. The Ukrainians did not ask for highly modern fighter jets like the F-35, but used the F-16, albeit with upgraded electronics and newer weapons. If the solution is F-16A from Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands, the Ukrainian Air Force will receive aircraft that are approximately 40 years old. Any used F-16C models from the USA will be somewhat more modern. In any case, the Russians have far more aircraft and the introduction of the F-16 will therefore not give the Ukrainians a military advantage, but rather compensate for a significant inferiority. Nor will the F-16s by themselves change the outcome of the war. It is unlikely that older F-16s will be used to attack frontline areas where the Russians use their most modern air defense systems and fighter jets to protect their forces. In any case, the Ukrainians have promised the US that the F-16 will not be used to attack targets in Russia. The defense role is more relevant because Ukraine is a large country and the F-16 will, in conjunction with air defense, form an effective system to protect all parts of the country from air attacks. The Ukrainians will also, under certain conditions, be able to use the F-16 with advanced long-range weapons to attack Russian military targets in the occupied parts of Ukraine. Ukraine’s strategy to quickly gain access to used combat aircraft will have a limited effect. Used F-16 aircraft, especially those from Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands, will not be in airworthy condition for many decades to come. The threat from its neighbor is likely to persist for the foreseeable future, so in the longer term Ukraine will need more modern, long-life combat aircraft.
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F-16 for Ukraine will strengthen the defense against air attacks – Statement
