On Monday, it became clear that the sharp fall in house prices continued in November. With a decrease of 2.2 per cent in November, house prices have fallen 6.5 per cent in the last three months. Nevertheless, it will go far, far further down, we are to believe the chief economist Søren Kristensen. – These factors contribute to the fact that we expect a price drop of up to 20 per cent in the USA, Sweden and Norway, says Kristensen, who is chief economist at the Danish Central Bank, to the Danish BT. Chief economist at Danish Sydbank, Søren Kristensen. Photo: Sydbank How housing prices have developed in relation to wage trends is what he highlights as a main factor. In addition, he believes that the fact that almost all Norwegians have floating interest rates on their loans means that the housing market is extra vulnerable in the future. – Countries such as Norway, the USA and Sweden are extraordinarily vulnerable, says Kristensen to the newspaper. – Not as big of a drop Sara Midtgaard, senior economist at Handelsbanken, agrees that income growth is an important driver of housing prices, but points out that there are many other factors that are important for the housing market that are not mentioned by Kristensen. Demographics, housing construction, the labor market and changes in the key interest rate are factors she lists. In addition, the housing market in the USA and Sweden has increased more than in Norway in recent years. – There it has increased by 20 per cent in a year at the peak in May this year, while in Norway house prices increased by 12 per cent. Thus, there is not as great a drop in the Norwegian housing market, compared to the USA and Sweden, states Midtgaard. Sara Midtgaard, senior economist at Handelsbanken. Photo: Handelsbanken In Norway, Handelsbanken expects a house price fall of 7.5 per cent – seasonally adjusted from top to bottom. – That means a drop of 3 per cent in 2023 and 2 per cent in 2024, she says. – Cannot be ruled out In November, 7,321 homes were sold in Norway, which is 14 percent fewer than the corresponding month in 2021. So far this year, 88,383 homes have been sold in Norway. That is 9.7 percent fewer than in the same period last year. Frank Jullum, chief economist at Danske Bank, believes that growth in the economy is now slowing down. Frank Jullum, chief economist at Danske Bank. Photo: Danske Bank – All this indicates that interest rates are working as intended, and that we are therefore very close to the interest rate peak. This means that the risk of a fall in the housing market in the order of 20 per cent, as Kristensen predicts, is limited, says Jullum. – If we are wrong, and interest rates continue to rise beyond 2023, we cannot rule out that the drop will be 20 per cent from the peak, he says further.
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– Extraordinary postponed – news Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
